European Retail Forecasts to 2013 - March 2008

SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK
GDP growth set to slow
Consumer expenditure also looking gloomy
Unemployment reaches its lowest level in 25 years
Politics
Retail is flourishing
Forecast
Figure 1: Europe: Year-on-year GDP growth in actual values by country, 2006-13
Figure 2: Europe: Year-on-year consumer spending growth in actual values by country, 2006-13
Retail sales forecasts
Figure 3: Europe: Retail sales by country, 2002-07
Figure 4: Europe: Forecast retail sales by country, 2008-13
Shifting balance of power
Figure 5: Europe: Larger countries’ share of all retail sales, 2002 and 2013
Figure 6: Europe: Retail sales by country as % all European retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 7: Europe: Retail sales by country as % all European retail sales, 2008-13
REPORT SCOPE AND TECHNICAL NOTES
 REPORT SCOPE
Methodology
Retail sales
2007 data
NACE classifications
Food retailers
Mixed goods retailers
Clothing retailers
Household goods retailers
Miscellaneous specialists
Accuracy and veracity in retail sales data
Other technical matters
Figure 8: European Internet suffixes
Figure 9: Average annual exchange rates for non-euro currencies, 2001-07
Financial definitions
Rounding errors
VAT
Figure 10: Europe: Standard VAT rates, 2006
Other abbreviations
COUNTRY FORECASTS
AUSTRIA
Background
The economy
Figure 11: Austria: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 12: Austria: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 13: Austria: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 14: Austria: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 15: Austria: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 16: Austria: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 17: Austria: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 18: Austria: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
BELGIUM
Background
The economy
Figure 19: Belgium: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 20: Belgium: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 21: Belgium: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 22: Belgium: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 23: Belgium: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 24: Belgium: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 25: Belgium: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 26: Belgium: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
BULGARIA
Background
The economy
Figure 27: Bulgaria: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 28: Bulgaria: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 29: Bulgaria: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 30: Bulgaria: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 31: Bulgaria: Retail sales (Local currency), 2002-07
Figure 32: Bulgaria: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 33: Bulgaria: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 34: Bulgaria: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 35: Bulgaria: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 36: Bulgaria: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
CROATIA
Background
The economy
Figure 37: Croatia: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 38: Croatia: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 39: Croatia: Final household consumption, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 40: Croatia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 41: Croatia: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 42: Croatia: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 43: Croatia: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 44: Croatia: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 45: Croatia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 46: Croatia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
CZECH REPUBLIC
Background
The economy
Figure 47: Czech Republic: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 48: Czech Republic: Consumer prices, 1998-2007
Figure 49: Czech Republic: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 50: Czech Republic: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 51: Czech Republic: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 52: Czech Republic: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 53: Czech Republic: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 54: Czech Republic: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 55: Czech Republic: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 56: Czech Republic: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
DENMARK
Background
The economy
Figure 57: Denmark: Gross domestic product, 1996-2007
Figure 58: Denmark: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 59: Denmark: Consumer expenditure, 1996-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 60: Denmark: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 61: Denmark: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 62: Denmark: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 63: Denmark: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 64: Denmark: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 65: Denmark: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 66: Denmark: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
ESTONIA
Background
The economy
Figure 67: Estonia: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 2: Estonia: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 68: Estonia: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 69: Estonia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 70: Estonia: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 71: Estonia: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 72: Estonia: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 73: Estonia: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 74: Estonia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 75: Estonia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
FINLAND
Background
The economy
Figure 76: Finland: Gross domestic product, 1996-2007
Figure 77: Finland: Consumer prices, 1998-2007
Figure 78: Finland: Consumer expenditure, 1996-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 79: Finland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 80: Finland: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 81: Finland: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 82: Finland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 83: Finland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
FRANCE
Background
The economy
Figure 84: France: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 85: France: Consumer prices, 1998-2007
Figure 86: France: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 87: France: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 88: France: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 89: France: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 90: France: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 91: France: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
GERMANY
Background
The economy
Figure 92: Germany: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 93: Germany: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 94: Germany: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 95: Germany: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 96: Germany: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 97: Germany: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 98: Germany: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 99: Germany: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
GREECE
Background
The economy
Figure 100: Greece: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 101: Greece: Consumer prices, 1998-2007
Figure 102: Greece: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 103: Greece: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 104: Greece: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 105: Greece: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 106: Greece: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 107: Greece: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
HUNGARY
Background
The economy
Figure 108: Hungary: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 109: Hungary: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 110: Hungary: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 111: Hungary: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 112: Hungary: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 113: Hungary: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 114: Hungary: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 115: Hungary: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 116: Hungary: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 117: Hungary: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
IRELAND
Background
The economy
Figure 118: Republic of Ireland: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 119: Republic of Ireland: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 120: Republic of Ireland: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 121: Ireland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 122: Ireland: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 123: Ireland: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 124: Ireland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 125: Ireland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
ITALY
Background
The economy
Figure 126: Italy: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 127: Italy: Consumer prices, 1998-2007
Figure 128: Italy: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 129: Italy: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 130: Italy: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 131: Italy: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 132: Italy: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 133: Italy: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
LATVIA
Background
The economy
Figure 134: Latvia: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 135: Latvia: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 136: Latvia: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 137: Latvia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 138: Latvia: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 139: Latvia: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 140: Latvia: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 141: Latvia: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 142: Latvia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 143: Latvia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
LITHUANIA
Background
The economy
Figure 144: Lithuania: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 145: Lithuania: Consumer prices, 1998-2007
Figure 146: Lithuania: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 147: Lithuania retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 148: Lithuania: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 149: Lithuania: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 150: Lithuania: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 151: Lithuania: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 152: Lithuania: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 153: Lithuania: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
LUXEMBOURG
Background
The economy
Figure 154: Luxembourg: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 155: Luxembourg: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 156: Luxembourg: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 157: Luxembourg: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 158: Luxembourg: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 159: Luxembourg: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 160: Luxembourg: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 161: Luxembourg: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
NETHERLANDS
Background
The economy
Figure 162: The Netherlands: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 163: The Netherlands: Consumer prices, 2002-07
Figure 164: The Netherlands: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 165: The Netherlands: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 166: The Netherlands: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 167: The Netherlands: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 168: The Netherlands: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 169: The Netherlands: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
NORWAY
Background
The economy
Figure 170: Norway: Gross domestic product, 1996-2007
Figure 171: Norway: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 172: Norway: Consumer expenditure, 1996-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 173: Norway: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 174: Norway: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 175: Norway: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 176: Norway: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 177: Norway: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 178: Norway: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 179: Norway: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
POLAND
Background
The economy
Figure 180: Poland: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 181: Poland: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 182: Poland: Consumer expenditure, 1996-2006
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 183: Poland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 184: Poland: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 185: Poland: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 186: Poland: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 187: Poland: Retail sales (€), 2007-13
Figure 188: Poland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 189: Poland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
PORTUGAL
Background
The economy
Figure 190: Portugal: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 191: Portugal: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 3: Portugal: Consumer expenditure, 1996-2006
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 192: Portugal: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 193: Portugal: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 194: Portugal: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 195: Portugal: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 196: Portugal: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
ROMANIA
Background
The economy
Figure 197: Romania: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 198: Romania: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 199: Romania: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 200: Romania: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 201: Romania: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 202: Romania: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 203: Romania: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 204: Romania: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 205: Romania: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 206: Romania: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
RUSSIA
Background
The economy
Figure 207: Russia: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 208: Russia: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 209: Russia: Consumer expenditure, 2000-06
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 210: Russia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 211: Russia: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 212: Russia: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 213: Russia: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 214: Russia: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 215: Russia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 216: Russia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
SLOVAKIA
Background
The economy
Figure 217: Slovakia: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 218: Slovakia: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 219: Slovakia: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 220: Slovakia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 221: Slovakia: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 222: Slovakia: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 223: Slovakia: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 224: Slovakia: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 225: Slovakia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 226: Slovakia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
SLOVENIA
Background
The economy
Figure 227: Slovenia: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 228: Slovenia: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 229: Slovenia: Consumer expenditure, 1996-2006
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 230: Slovenia: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 231: Slovenia: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 232: Slovenia: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 233: Slovenia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 234: Slovenia: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
SPAIN
Background
The economy
Figure 235: Spain: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 236: Spain: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 237: Spain: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 238: Spain: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 239: Spain: Retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 240: Spain: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 241: Spain: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 242: Spain: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
SWEDEN
Background
The economy
Figure 243: Sweden: Gross domestic product, 1996-2007
Figure 244: Sweden: Consumer prices, 2000-07
Figure 245: Sweden: Consumer expenditure, 1996-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 246: Sweden: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 247: Sweden: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 248: Sweden: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 249: Sweden: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 250: Sweden: Retail sales (€b), 2008-13
Figure 251: Sweden: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 252: Sweden: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
SWITZERLAND
Background
The economy
Figure 253: Switzerland: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 254: Switzerland: Consumer prices, 1999-2007
Figure 255: Switzerland: Consumer expenditure, 1997-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 256: Switzerland: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 257: Switzerland: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 258: Switzerland: Retail sales (local currency), 2008-13
Figure 259: Switzerland: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 260: Switzerland: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 261: Switzerland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 262: Switzerland: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
UK
Background
The economy
Figure 263: UK: Gross domestic product, 1997-2007
Figure 264: UK: RPI and CPI, 1999-2007
Figure 265: UK: Consumer expenditure, 1998-2007
The retail background
 FORECAST
Figure 266: UK: Retail sales as % all European retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 267: UK: Retail sales (local currency), 2002-07
Figure 268: UK: Retail sales, 2008-13
Figure 269: UK: Retail sales (€), 2002-07
Figure 270: UK: Retail sales (€), 2008-13
Figure 271: UK: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2002-07
Figure 272: UK: Sector sales as % all retail sales, 2008-13
MAJOR RETAIL SECTOR FORECASTS
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR RETAILING
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 273: Europe: Clothing and footwear retailers sales as % of all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 274: European clothing and footwear retailers: Compound growth by country, 2002-07(e)
Figure 275: European clothing and footwear retailers’ sales, 2002-07
Figure 276: European clothing and footwear retailers’ sales, 2008-13
DEPARTMENT AND VARIETY STORE RETAILING
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 277: Europe: Mixed goods retailers sales as % all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 278: European mixed goods retailers: Compound growth, 2002-07
Figure 279: European mixed goods retailers sales, 2002-07
Figure 280: European mixed goods retailers sales, 2008-13
DIY RETAILERS
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 281: Europe: DIY retailers sales as % all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 282: European DIY retailers: Compound growth, 2002-07
Figure 283: European DIY retailers sales, 2002-07
Figure 284: European DIY retailers sales, 2008-13
ELECTRICALS RETAILERS
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 285: Europe: Electricals retailers’ sales as % of all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 286: European electricals retailers: Compound growth by country, 2002-07
Figure 287: European electricals retailers’ sales, 2002-07
Figure 288: European electricals retailers’ sales, 2008-13
FOOD RETAILING
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 289: Europe: Food retailers’ sales as % of all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 290: European food retailers: Compound growth by country, 2002-07(e)
Figure 291: European food retailers’ sales, 2002-07
Figure 292: European food retailers’ sales, 2008-13
FURNITURE
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 293: Europe: Furniture retailers’ sales as % of all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 294: European furniture retailers: Compound growth by country, 2002-07(e)
Figure 295: European Furniture retailers’ sales, 2002-07
Figure 296: European furniture retailers’ sales, 2008-13
HEALTH AND BEAUTY
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 297: Europe: H&B retailers sales as % all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 298: European H&B retailers: Compound growth by country, 2002-07 (e)
Figure 299: European H&B retailers sales, 2002-07
Figure 300: European H&B retailers sales, 2008-13
HOME SHOPPING RETAILERS
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 301: Europe: Home shopping retailers sales as % of all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 302: European home shopping retailers: Compound growth by country, 2002-07(e)
Figure 303: European home shopping retailers’ sales, 2002-07
Figure 304: European home shopping retailers’ sales, 2008-13
Figure 305: European non-store retailers’ sales, 2002-07
Figure 306: European non-store retailers’ sales, 2008-13
MISCELLANEOUS SPECIALIST RETAILERS
Background
Sector trends
 FORECAST
Figure 307: Europe: Miscellaneous specialist retailers’ sales as % of all retail sales, 2002-13
Figure 308: European miscellaneous specialist retailers: Compound growth by country, 2002-07
Figure 309: European Miscellaneous specialist retailers’ sales, 2002-07
Figure 310: European miscellaneous specialist retailers’ sales, 2008-13