Pizza - UK - March 2005

INTRODUCTION AND ABBREVIATIONS
Definition
Consumer research
Definitions
ACORN
 ABBREVIATIONS
PREMIER INSIGHT
Even those who like pizzas often have negative attitudes towards them
How can supermarkets fight back against takeaway/home delivery?
GI Diet – the new diet for 2005
Manufacturers should flag up the provenance of pizza recipes
More branded opportunities
DIY pizzas need invigorating
Pizza snacking market needs rethinking
Targeting children
Turning toppings into fillings
Figure 1: Forkless gourmet bun meal
Family packs are a way forward
That’s entertainment
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Restaurants drive trends
Growing demand for convenience food
Market still growing, but so are price pressures
Different supply structure for frozen and chilled
Youthful bias in frozen pizza purchasing
The future
MARKET DRIVERS
PDI growth boosts convenience market
Figure 2: Trends in PDI and consumer expenditure, at constant 1999 prices, 1999-2008 (proj)
Employment patterns also boost convenience foods
Figure 3: Employment figures by gender, 1999-2004
Convenience
Average meal preparation time has declined dramatically
Pizza needs to be better defined as a snack
Demographic breakdown of pizza users
Figure 4: Usage of pizza, by demographic sub-group, 2004
Shrinking household size spells trouble for the pizza market
Figure 5: Changes in household size, 1999-2004
Age shifts in the population prove beneficial
Figure 6: UK population structure, by age, 1999-2004
Attitudes towards food
Figure 7: Agreement with attitudes towards food, diet and meal occasions, 1998-2004
Takeaways are growing in popularity
Healthy lifestyles are a growing consumer concern
Two thirds of consumers believe fresh is better than frozen
Enjoyment of Mediterranean diet augmenting Italian style pizza
Competition from takeaways
Figure 8: Consumption of takeaway foods in the last 12 months, 2002-04
Restaurants exert an influence
Foodservice is the inspiration for new NPD…
…but authenticity is hard to replicate
Competition stems from a plethora of products
Pizza associated with informal meal occasions
Health
Negative perceptions of pizza continues to dog the market
Italian study finds pizza has cancer-reducing properties
A healthy message needs to be better communicated
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
Challenge to maintain value
Figure 9: UK retail sales of pizza, by volume and value, 1999-2004
Chilled overtakes frozen
Figure 10: UK retail value sales of pizza, by type, 2000-04
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Figure 11: Estimated sector value share within the UK retail pizza market, 2004
 FROZEN PIZZA
Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of frozen pizza, 1999-2004
NPD driving the premium sector
Strong growth in large pizzas
Figure 13: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, by size, 2000, 2002 and 2004
Main meal
Small
Topped breads declining
Thin continues to win
Figure 14: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, by base type, 2002 and 2004
NPD is driving the thin-crust sector
 CHILLED PIZZA
Figure 15: UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 1999-2004
Chilled pizza attracting more health-conscious consumers
Pizza deli counters adds theatre to the category
Figure 16: UK retail sales of chilled pizza, pre-packed or deli, by value, 2002 and 2004
 PIZZA BASES AND SAUCES
Figure 17: UK retail sales of pizza bases and sauces, by value, 1999-2004
Growth in convenience foods is not aiding DIY pizza kits
THE SUPPLY STRUCTURE
 MANUFACTURERS AND BRAND SHARES
Figure 18: Manufacturer/brand shares of the frozen pizza market, 2000, 2002 and 2004
Dr Oetker has been the most successful launch over the review period
Figure 19: Manufacturer/brand shares of the prepacked chilled pizza market, 2000, 2002 and 2004
 COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Schwan’s
Green Isle Foods
McCain
Dr Oetker
Geest
Greencore Group
Stateside/Freiberger
Heinz
Other companies
Pizza bases and sauces
NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
NPD focused on chilled pizzas
Frozen deep pan pizzas see little NPD…
…as frozen pizza manufacturers look to thin crust
Snacking sector identified as one area of growth
Premium end of the market sees a raft of NPD
Healthier eating
Low-carb growing
Marketing at children
New areas for growth
 NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Adspend varies year-on-year
Figure 20: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on pizza, 1999-2004
Frozen accounts for 98.5% of all advertising in the pizza market
Figure 21: Main monitored media advertisng expenditure on pizza, by storage type, 1999-2004
Fresh advertising very sporadic
Figure 22: main monitored media advertisng expenditure on fresh pizza, by selected advertisers, 2002-04
Big brands drive high media spend in frozen
Figure 23: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on frozen pizza, by selected suppliers, 2002-04
Below-the-line promotions
Figure 24: Selected promotions in the frozen pizza market, January-February 2005
Figure 25: Selected promotions in the fresh pizza market, January-February 2005
Product trials
DISTRIBUTION
Grocery multiples in pole position
Figure 26: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, by type of outlet, 2000, 2002 and 2004
Figure 27: UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, by type of outlet, 2000, 2002 and 2004
THE CONSUMER
 CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
Figure 28: Consumer preferences for type of pizza, 2000 and 2004
Frozen still the most popular
A strong youthful bias for frozen
Chilled have a broad age appeal
Children a key factor
London below average
Broadsheet readers do it themselves
THE CONSUMER – DETAILED DEMOGRAPHICS
Figure 29: Pizza purchased in the last three months, by gender, age and socio-economic group, November-December 2004
Figure 30: Pizza purchased in the last three months, by children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, November-December 2004
Figure 31: Pizza purchased in the last three months, by working status and household size, November-December 2004
Figure 32: Pizza purchased in the last three months, by region and ACORN category, November-December 2004
Figure 33: Pizza purchased in the last three months, by media and supermarket usage, November-December 2004
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOUR
 POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS OF PIZZA
Figure 34: Positive and negative perceptions of pizza, November-December 2004
Convenient and tasty…
…but bad for you
Cheap and filling…
…but inauthentic
 POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS
Men eat now, women plan ahead
Family lifestage is the most important
Socio-economic status has little discernible difference
All but the old like pizzas
Distinct different shopper characteristics
Detailed demographic breakdown
Figure 35: Positive perceptions of pizza, by gender, age and socio-economic group, November-December 2004
Figure 36: Positive perceptions of pizza, by children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, November-December 2004
Figure 37: Positive perceptions of pizza, by working status and household size, November-December 2004
Figure 38: Positive perceptions of pizza, by region and ACORN category, November-December 2004
Figure 39: Positive perceptions of pizza, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, November-December 2004
 NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS
Women find pizzas fattening
Socio-economic differences are not striking
Families have the most negative views on health issues
Healthy pizza lines may broaden the consumer base of value retailers
Detailed Demographics
Figure 40: Negative perceptions of pizza, by gender, age and socio-economic group, November-December 2004
Figure 41: Negative perceptions of pizza, by children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, November-December 2004
Figure 42: Negative perceptions of pizza, by working status and household size, November-December 2004
Figure 43: Negative perceptions of pizza, by region and ACORN category, November-December 2004
Figure 44: Negative perceptions of pizza, by media usage, supermarket usage and TV viewing, November-December 2004
 ASSESSING ATTITUDES AND ENTHUSIASMS
Figure 45: Attitudes towards purchasing, cooking and serving pizza, November-December 2004
 PURCHASING, COOKING AND SERVING PIZZA
Topping is most important
Deep pan still popular
Good snack but not respectable food
Women hunt out promotions
Semi and unskilled manual workers are most likely to buy on promotion
Bargain hunters – Young or old!
The young go for takeaways
Children prefer fresh pizzas
ABC1 pre-/no family lifestage are a key target for home entertaining
Londoners care least about pizzas
Education and age levels have a distinct effect on takeaway purchases
Waitrose and M&S shoppers don’t buy on promotion…
Shoppers in Morrisons and Iceland definitely do
Asda’s EDLP strategy stymies promotional sales
Tesco and Sainsbury’s have differing strategies
Detailed Demographics
Figure 46: Attitudes towards purchasing, cooking and serving pizza, by gender, age and socio-economic group, November-December 2004
Figure 47: Attitudes towards purchasing, cooking and serving pizza, by children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, November-December 2004
Figure 48: Attitudes towards purchasing, cooking and serving pizza, by working status and household size, November-December 2004
Figure 49: Attitudes towards purchasing, cooking and serving pizza, by region and ACORN category, November-December 2004
Figure 50: Attitudes towards purchasing, cooking and serving pizza, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, November-December 2004
 THE CONSUMER PURCHASING HIERARCHY
The young like deep pan
Toppings important for children
Detailed demographic breakdown
Figure 51: Consumer purchasing hierarchy, by gender, age and socio-economic group, November-December 2004
Figure 52: Consumer purchasing hierarchy, by children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups November-December 2004
Figure 53: Consumer purchasing hierarchy, by working status and household size, November-December 2004
Figure 54: Consumer purchasing hierarchy, by region and ACORN category, November-December 2004
Figure 55: Consumer purchasing hierarchy, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, November-December 2004
 ASSESSING ENTHUSIASM – REPERTOIRE ANALYSIS
DIY pizza is an ancillary product
Figure 56: Types of pizza bought by number bought in the last three months, November-December 2004
Negative perceptions wane amongst core pizza buyers
Figure 57: Attitudes towards pizza by size of repertoire, November-December 2004
 ASSESSING KEY TARGET MARKETS – CONSUMER TYPOLOGIES
Figure 58: The four pizza consumer typologies, November-December 2004
Cluster 1 – Occasionals (53% of sample)
Cluster 2 – Fresh Toppers (17% of sample)
Cluster 3 – Deep-Pan Fans (18% of sample)
Cluster 4 – Pizza Snackers (12% of sample)
Detailed demographic breakdown
Figure 59: Demographic breakdown of cluster groups, by gender, age and scoio-economic group, November-December 2004
Figure 60: Demographic breakdown of cluster groups, by region, marital status, working status and presence of children, November-December 2004
Figure 61: Demographic breakdown of cluster groups, by media usage, supermarket usage, lifestage and Mintel's Special Groups, November-December 2004
Figure 62: Demographic breakdown of cluster groups, by household size, commercial TV viewing and ACORN category, November-December 2004
Assessing purchasing and repertoire patterns
Figure 63: Products purchased in last three months, by cluster group, November-December 2004
Figure 64: Number of pizzas purchased by cluster group, 2004
Assessing the attitudes of consumer typologies
Figure 65: Attitudes towards pizza by cluster group, November-December 2004
THE FUTURE
Improving quality
Health
Dietary pizzas will grow
Thin-crust pizzas will grow sales
Snacking
More variety
Adapt to changing needs
Industry structure
FORECAST
Figure 66: Forecast of the UK market for pizza, 2004-09
Frozen pizzas losing out to chilled
Chilled to drive growth
Pizza bases & sauces to decline
Pizza – enjoyable and healthy?
Figure 67: Index growth of the UK market for pizza, by sector, 2004-09
Factors incorporated in the forecast