Crisps, Savoury Snacks and Nuts - UK - February 2021

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this Report
COVID-19: market context
Economic and other assumptions
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact of COVID-19 on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts
Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 3 February 2021
The market
More snacking during first lockdown boosts 2020 sales
Gradual re-emergence of snacking out of home
Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2015-25
Snacking firmly entrenched in British eating habits
Strong interest in healthy eating
Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
Companies and brands
Walkers extends its lead in crisps segment
Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK crisps retail market, by value, 2019/20*
Pringles leads growth in sales of other savoury snacks
Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK potato-based, baked and other snacks market, by value, 2019/20*
Butterkist drives most of the growth in popcorn
Flavour innovation a major theme in NPD 
Different levels of spice intensity being explored
Format diversification a feature of brand extensions 
Dip in advertising spending during COVID-19 pandemic
Walkers in strong position as most trusted brand
The consumer 
More than nine in 10 eat crisps, savoury snacks and nuts
Crisps/crisp-style snacks have most frequent usage
Figure 5: Frequency of eating crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, November 2020
Snacking the primary driver of usage 
Daytime snacking holds further potential for nuts and popcorn
Figure 6: Occasions when crisps, savoury snacks and nuts eaten in the last 3 months, November 2020
Strong interest in products featuring world cuisines
Alcoholic drinks and dips pairings hold more potential
Opportunity for more pulses in savoury snacks
Figure 7: Behaviours related to eating crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, November 2020
Premium varieties well placed to add value to the market
Most people open to being swayed by healthier options
Figure 8: Attitudes towards crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, November 2020
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
COVID-19 increases importance of targeting in-home consumption
People snacking at home more during COVID-19
Demand for on-the-go snacking dampened by COVID-19
More remote working and snacking at home expected long term
Kids’ lunchbox occasion hit by school closures
Focus on healthy eating presents a challenge and opportunities
COVID-19 increases spotlight on health
People cutting back on crisps/crisp-style snacks a threat to sales
Government plans restrictions on promotions of HFSS foods
Better-for-you variants have permission to play in the category
Opportunity for more pulses in savoury snacks
Highlighting different usage occasions will help to support sales
Evening snacking continues to warrant attention
Daytime snacking holds further potential for nuts and popcorn
Lunch pairings a good way of encouraging more eating
Marketing and merchandising should leverage eating with alcohol occasion
Suitability for dipping worth emphasising
Flavour innovation central to keeping users engaged with brands
World cuisine flavours have strong appeal
Constant newness keeps four in 10 buyers buying
Keeping their finger on latest flavour trends important
Premium varieties well placed to add value to the market
Spotlight on health also highlights potential for premium segment
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
More snacking during first lockdown boosts 2020 sales
Larger formats gain at the expense of single packs
Gradual re-emergence of snacking out of home expected
Snacking firmly entrenched in British eating habits
Kids’ snacking helps drive sales
Strong interest in healthy eating
Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
Decline projected in most frequent core younger eaters
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
More snacking at home helps drive sales of savoury snacks
Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 3 February 2021
More snacking during first lockdown boosts 2020 sales
Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2015-25 (prepared on 3 February 2021)
Easing restrictions will dent volumes in 2021, modest growth ahead 
Figure 11: Forecast of UK retail value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2015-25
Figure 12: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2015-25
Market drivers and assumptions
Figure 13: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-2025 (prepared on 3 February 2021)
Learnings from the last recession
Figure 14: Growth in value and volume retail sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2008-12
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Potato-based and other snacks show further growth
Figure 15: UK retail value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, by segment, 2015-20
Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, by segment, 2015-20
Potato crisps return to growth in 2020
Baked snacks show modest growth 
Popcorn sales boosted by more evenings in
Meat snacks benefit from more snacking at home
Nuts benefit from strong nutrition credentials
Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of nuts, by sub-segment, 2018-20
MARKET DRIVERS
January 2021 lockdowns will mean more snacking at home again
Snacking firmly entrenched in British eating habits
68% of people who snack do so at least daily
Majority eat a wide variety of snacks 
Figure 18: Repertoire of types of snacks eaten, March 2020
Kids’ snacking also helps drive sales
Strong interest in healthy eating
COVID-19 increases spotlight on health
Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
Decline projected in most frequent core younger eaters
Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2015-25
Income squeeze will hit discretionary spend
Brexit trade deal means minimal impact on crisps and savoury snacks 
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Walkers extends its lead in crisps segment
Pringles leads growth in sales of other savoury snacks
Flavour innovation a major theme in NPD 
Different levels of spice intensity being explored
Format diversification a feature of brand extensions 
Better-for-you snacks look to tap healthy eating trend
High/added fibre and protein messages continue to be pushed
Dip in advertising spending during COVID-19 pandemic
Walkers in strong position as most trusted brand
MARKET SHARE
Walkers extends its lead in crisps segment
Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK crisps retail market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Pringles leads growth in sales of other savoury snacks
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK potato-based, baked and other snacks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Butterkist drives most of the growth in popcorn
Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK popcorn market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Sales of nuts dominated by own-label
Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK nuts market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Strong year for branded and own-label meat snacks
Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK meat snacks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Flavour innovation a major theme in NPD 
Walkers ties up with restaurant chains for Taste Icons range
Figure 25: Walkers’ new Taste Icons range, 2020
Different levels of spice intensity being explored
Figure 26: Examples of ranges featuring spicy flavours, 2020
Christmas flavours another feature of NPD
Figure 27: Launch of Christmas flavours in crisps and savoury snacks, 2020
Format diversification a feature of brand extensions 
Figure 28: Launch of new formats and sizes in crisps and savoury snacks, 2020
Meat snack brands extend with bars
Better-for-you snacks look to tap healthy eating trend
Exponent looks to build a better-for-you powerhouse
Snacks made with pulses see more launches
Figure 29: Examples of launches in crisps and savoury snacks featuring chickpeas, 2020
Popped and baked snacks continue to feature strongly
Figure 30: Examples of baked launches in crisps and savoury snacks, 2020
Figure 31: Examples of popped launches in crisps and savoury snacks, 2020
High/added fibre and protein messages continue to be pushed
Figure 32: Proportion of new launches in crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market making high/added fibre and high/added protein claims, 2016-20
Figure 33: Examples of launches in crisps and savoury snacks making high/added protein claims, 2020/21
Figure 34: Examples of launches in crisps, savoury snacks and nuts making high/added fibre claims, 2020/21
Vegan claims increase on the back of plant-based trend
Figure 35: Proportion of new launches in crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market making vegetarian and vegan/no animal ingredients claims, 2016-20
Figure 36: Examples of launches in crisps and savoury snacks making vegan/no animal ingredients claims, 2020
Premium launches and references to provenance look to add value
Figure 37: Examples of premium launches in crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2020
Product refreshes also an important part of launch activity
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Dip in advertising spending during COVID-19 pandemic
Figure 38: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts*, by media type, 2017-20
Three advertisers dominate spending 
Figure 39: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts*, by advertiser, 2019 and 2020
Walkers Max leads spending by Walkers 
Figure 40: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, by brand, 2020
Walkers supports new flavour launches
Taste Icons range featured two-for-one meal offers
Sausage Roll flavour supports food bank charity
Walkers Max promotes flavour, heat and crunch
Brands look to tap healthier New Year eating
Walkers Oven Bake promoted as simple swap
Hula Hoops Puft targets healthier snacking
New formats receive strong advertising support
Doritos Stax highlights distinctive triangular packaging
Wotsits returns to TV screens with tongue-in-cheek advert for new Giants 
McCoy’s promotes strength of Muchos corn chips
Sharing occasions a big theme in premium snacks
Tyrrells promotes provenance, heritage and snacking experience
Kettle heroes its role for special occasions
Propercorn makes TV debut with animated campaign
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 41: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2020
Key brand metrics
Figure 42: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2020
Brand attitudes: Walkers the most trusted brand
Figure 43: Attitudes, by brand, December 2020
Brand personality: Pringles seen as being the most fun brand
Figure 44: Brand personality – Macro image, December 2020
Walkers seen as the most traditional brand
Figure 45: Brand personality – Micro image, December 2020
Brand analysis
Walkers stands for consistently high quality
Figure 46: User profile of Walkers, December 2020
Doritos seen as the most cool brand
Figure 47: User profile of Doritos, December 2020
Pringles has shared strongest family brand and delicious image
Figure 48: User profile of Pringles, December 2020
Kettle more associated with being indulgent or special than other brands
Figure 49: User profile of Kettle, December 2020
Being delicious and indulgent relative strengths for McCoy’s 
Figure 50: User profile of McCoy’s, December 2020
KP Nuts has higher proportion of lapsed users than most 
Figure 51: User profile of KP Nuts, December 2020
Hula Hoops a good value, family and fun brand
Figure 52: User profile of Hula Hoops, December 2020
popchips the brand most seen as healthy
Figure 53: User profile of popchips, December 2020
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS
More than nine in 10 eat crisps, savoury snacks and nuts
Crisps/crisp-style snacks have most frequent usage
Snacking the primary driver of usage 
Daytime snacking holds further potential for nuts and popcorn
Strong interest in products featuring world cuisines
Alcoholic drinks and dips pairings hold more potential
Opportunity for more pulses in savoury snacks
Premium varieties well placed to add value to the market
Most people open to being swayed by healthier options
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
People snacking at home more during COVID-19
Demand for on-the-go snacking dampened by COVID-19
More remote working and snacking at home expected long term 
Kids’ lunchbox occasion hit by school closures
Pandemic increases focus on health
Figure 54: Changes in eating healthily as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 2-11 November 2020
COVID-19 pandemic expected to heighten focus on sustainability
Figure 55: Changes in the environment being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 2-11 November 2020
Changes to shopping behaviour favour well-known brands
Figure 56: Selected behaviour changes since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, December 2020 and January 2021
USAGE OF CRISPS, SAVOURY SNACKS AND NUTS
More than nine in 10 eat crisps, savoury snacks and nuts
Figure 57: Number of different types of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts eaten in the last 3 months, November 2020
Three quarters eat potato crisps
Figure 58: Types of crisps/crisp-style snacks eaten in the last 3 months, October 2019 and November 2020
Nuts eaten by half of consumers
Figure 59: Types of nuts eaten in the last 3 months, November 2020
Three in 10 consumers eat popcorn
Figure 60: Types of other savoury snacks eaten in the last 3 months, November 2020
Baked snacks the most popular better-for-you snack
Figure 61: Types of snacks eaten in the last 3 months, November 2020
FREQUENCY OF EATING CRISPS, SAVOURY SNACKS AND NUTS
Crisps/crisp-style snacks have most frequent usage
Figure 62: Frequency of eating crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, November 2020
Frequency of nut usage increases
OCCASIONS FOR EATING CRISPS, SAVOURY SNACKS AND NUTS
Snacking the primary driver of usage 
Crisps and crisp-style snacks lag behind competitors in evenings
Figure 63: Occasions when crisps, savoury snacks and nuts eaten in the last 3 months, November 2020
Daytime snacking holds further potential for nuts and popcorn
Figure 64: Savoury snacks aligning with key snack needs and occasions, 2020
Variations by age on when people are most likely to snack
Lunches important for crisps and meat snacks
BEHAVIOURS RELATED TO EATING CRISPS, SAVOURY SNACKS AND NUTS
Strong interest in products featuring world cuisines
Figure 65: Behaviours related to eating crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, November 2020
Alcoholic drinks and dips pairings hold more potential
Marketing and merchandising should leverage eating with alcohol occasion 
Suitability for dipping worth emphasising
Opportunity for more pulses in savoury snacks
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRISPS, SAVOURY SNACKS AND NUTS
Premium varieties well placed to add value to the market
Figure 66: Attitudes towards crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, November 2020
Crisps/crisp-style snacks have an edge over sugary snacks on health perceptions
Displaying calories will appeal to one in three
Better-for-you variants have permission to play in the category
Consumers want re-sealable packaging
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 67: Total UK retail value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
Figure 68: Total UK retail volume sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 69: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK crisps market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Figure 70: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK potato-based, baked and other snacks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Figure 71: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK popcorn market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Figure 72: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK nuts market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Figure 73: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK meat snacks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
APPENDIX – LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Figure 74: Share of product launches in the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by sub-segment, 2016-20 (sorted by 2020)
Figure 75: Share of product launches in the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by claim, 2016-20 (sorted by 2020)