Cinemas - UK - January 2021

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this report
COVID-19: Market context
Impact of the January lockdown and the vaccination rollout
Economic and other assumptions
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market sees dramatic fall off due to closure of cinemas and ongoing COVID-19 impact
Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cinemas, January 2020
The market
Market volume suffers significant fall in 2020
Figure 2: UK cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
Figure 3: Cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
Decline in average spend per admission drives market value down faster
Figure 4: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
Figure 5: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
Fluctuations in consumer confidence remain minor despite the changing landscape
Figure 6: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, Jan20-Jan21
Major chains close their doors temporarily in a bid to save off permanent closure
Independent films see more traction in absence of big blockbusters
Culture Recovery Fund launches to help independent cinemas stay afloat
Companies and brands
Pay-TV and streaming services line up exclusive content with production houses and directors
Cinemas turn to novel drive-ins, pop-ups and socially distanced events to keep the show on the road
Cinemas offer their own streaming platforms to support bricks and mortar operations in lockdown
Amazon and Curzon tie-up for theatrical release of One Night in Miami scuppered by Covid-19
National Lottery and BFI partner on National Lottery Cinema Weekend
The consumer
COVID-19 has had a severe impact on consumer comfort with visiting cinemas
Figure 7: Level of comfort in going to the cinema/theatre June-November 2020
Drop off in visiting the cinema in 2020
Figure 8: Cinema visiting, October 2018, September 2019 and September 2020
Action leads the way for favoured genre
Drama finds more favour among older generations
A varied slate of genres can hedge against unforeseen downturns
Figure 9: Genres of film watched at the cinema last 12 months, September 2020
Standard 2D showings still dominate
Varied types of screening can cater to the avid cinema-goer
Figure 10: Type of screenings seen in last 12 months, September 2019, September 2020
Multiplexes benefit from all-round appeal
Smaller independent and niche cinema experiences can help broaden cinema’s reach
Figure 11: Cinemas’ correspondence analysis, September 2020
Over eight in 10 cinema goers have not returned since reopening
Younger men more likely to have returned
Figure 12: Potential ways to encourage cinema-going amongst lapsed cinema-goers, September 2020
Appetite for cinema-going still significant despite COVID-19’s impact
Consumers’ growing sense of local connection can help cinemas survive
Figure 13: Attitudes to cinema-going under COVID-19, September 2020
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
No time to die for the cinema experience, despite streaming’s looming spectre
Cinema needs to come back all guns blazing
Pent-up demand and delayed releases can lay the platform for a festival of cinema
Diversification will be needed in the short term to draw a broader range of audiences to cinemas
Documentaries and live streaming could be underexploited genres for cinemas
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Market volume and value suffer significant fall in 2020 due to COVID-19
Fluctuations in consumer confidence remain minor despite the changing landscape
Major chains close their doors in a bid to save off permanent closure
Consumers increasingly turned to streaming video services in 2020
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Market sees dramatic fall off due to closure of cinemas and ongoing COVID-19 impact
Figure 14: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cinemas, January 2020
Market volume suffers significant fall in 2020
Figure 15: UK cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
Figure 16: Cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
Decline in average spend per admission drives market value down faster
Figure 17: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
Figure 18: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
Market drivers and assumptions
Figure 19: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 2 December 2020)
Learnings from the last recession
Figure 20: UK cinema market, 2005-10
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Average retail spend per head decreases due to closure of restaurants and cafes
Figure 21: UK cinema market, by segment, 2015-20
Cinema admissions decimated by COVID-19
Figure 22: UK cinema admissions, by month, 2016-2020
MARKET DRIVERS
Fluctuations in consumer confidence remain minor despite the changing landscape
Figure 23: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, Jan20-Jan21
Major chains close their doors temporarily in a bid to save off permanent closure
Consumers can Marvel at slate of delayed films set to hit cinemas in 2021
Independent films see more traction in absence of big blockbusters
Culture Recovery Fund launches to help independent cinemas stay afloat
Cineworld secures a cash bailout to survive through COVID-19
Pay-TV and streaming services line up exclusive content with production houses and directors
Straight-to-digital and limited theatrical releases shift the dynamic of the exhibitor-studio relationship
Consumers increasingly turn to streaming video services in 2020
Despite streaming’s threat to the cinema experience, it could be cinemas’ biggest trailer yet
Figure 24: Use of paid-for video subscription services, December 2017–2-14 July 2020
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Cinemas focus on providing community service during Christmas period
Cinemas offer their own streaming platforms to support bricks and mortar operations in lockdown
National Lottery and BFI partner on National Lottery Cinema Weekend in March 2021
Drive-ins, pop-ups and socially distanced events keep the cinematic show on the road
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Cinemas turn to novel drive-ins, pop-ups and socially distanced events to keep the show on the road
Global approach to COVID-19 disruption can point to possibilities for UK market
Alhambra provides community service during Christmas period
Cinemas offer their own streaming platforms to support bricks and mortar operations in lockdown
Amazon and Curzon tie-up for theatrical release of One Night in Miami scuppered by COVID-19
National Lottery and BFI partner on National Lottery Cinema Weekend
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
2020 advertising spend significantly down on previous years
Figure 25: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure for UK film distributors and cinemas, 2015-20*
Figure 26: Share of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure by film distributors, 2018,2019, Jan-Oct 2020
Figure 27: Share of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure by film distributors, 2018, 2019, Jan-Oct 2020
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
MARKET SHARE
Incremental increase in number of sites in 2020
Figure 28: Major cinema operators’ UK sites and screens, November 2020
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS
COVID-19 has had a severe impact on consumer comfort with visiting cinemas
Cinema and theatre visitation has fallen off dramatically due to COVID-19 closures over the past year
Action leads the way for favoured genre
Standard 2D showings still dominate
Multiplexes are seen as the all-rounders
Discount schemes and awareness of independent safety measures can help bring back audiences
Appetite for cinema-going still significant despite COVID-19’s impact
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
COVID-19 has had a severe impact on consumer comfort with visiting cinemas
Figure 29: Level of comfort in going to the cinema/theatre June-November 2020
Cinema and theatre visiting has fallen off dramatically due to COVID-19 closures over the past year
Figure 30: Frequency of cinema/theatre visiting, Oct 19, Jan 20 and Oct 20
CINEMA VISITING
Drop off in visiting the cinema in 2020
Rural and town cinema-going can increase post COVID-19
Vue from the top
Figure 31: Cinema visiting, October 2018, September 2019 and September 2020
GENRES OF FILMS WATCHED AT THE CINEMA
Action leads the way for favoured genre
Drama finds more favour among older generations
Anniversary showings can help cinemas reconnect with lapsed audiences
A varied slate of genres can hedge against unforeseen downturns
Figure 32: Genres of film watched at the cinema last 12 months, September 2020
SCREENING TYPE
Standard 2D showings still dominate
Cinematic experience is ripe for live streamed music events
Varied types of screening can cater to the avid cinema-goer
Figure 33: Type of screenings seen in last 12 months, September 2019, September 2020
CINEMA ATTRIBUTES
Multiplexes benefit from all-round appeal
Smaller independent and niche cinema experiences can help broaden cinema’s reach
Boutique cinemas seen as expensive
Figure 34: Cinemas’ correspondence analysis, September 2020
Figure 35: Cinemas’ correspondence analysis, September 2020
ATTITUDES TOWARDS RETURNING TO THE CINEMA
Over eight in 10 cinema-goers have not returned since reopening
Younger men more likely to have returned
Figure 36: Cinema attendance amongst cinema goers since reopening of cinemas in July, September 2020
Discount schemes and awareness of independent safety measures can help bring back audiences
Framing the relative risk compared to other activities can help assuage some doubters
Exclusivity still a main draw for audiences
Figure 37: Potential ways to encourage cinema-going amongst lapsed cinema goers, September 2020
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSUMER ATTITUDES TO CINEMA-GOING
Appetite for cinema-going still significant despite COVID-19’s impact
Consumers’ growing sense of local connection can help cinemas survive
Figure 38: Cinemas – CHAID – tree output, September 2020
The elephant in the room might shift cinemas’ role in the viewing ecosystem for good
Cinemas are still unrivalled when it comes to witnessing creative vision
Tie-ups with streaming services may be necessary
Figure 39: Attitudes to cinema-going under COVID-19, September 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology