Wine: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - October 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know 
Key issues covered in this Report
Definition 
COVID-19: market context
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Top takeaways 
Market overview 
Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2015-25
Impact of COVID-19 on wine
Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on wine, October 2020
Opportunities and challenges 
Reemergence 
Figure 3: Reasons for drinking less alcohol, July 2020
Figure 4: Impact of COVID-19 on select alcohol behavior, July 2020
Figure 5: Wine type consumed, July 2019 and July 2020
Recovery 
Figure 6: Perception of box wine launches versus all wine launches, January 2019-August 2020
Figure 7: Wine exploration, July 2020
Figure 8: Alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin and generation, July 2020
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
On-premise shutdowns trigger projected wine dip in 2020
Sparkling gains share on table wine
Smaller segments can use pandemic to kickstart long overdue growth
COVID-19 has changed where, when and how much consumers drink
Mandated restrictions drove alcohol reduction; here comes a recession
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Hamstrung on-premise performance stumps total sales growth 
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Impact of COVID-19 on wine
Figure 12: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on wine, October 2020
Lockdown
Reemergence
Recovery
COVID-19: US context
Learnings from the last recession: wine weathered the storm, but the climate has changed
Figure 13: Total US volume sales of wine, 2007-12
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Sparkling gains share on table wine
Figure 14: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, by segment share, 2017-23
Figure 15: Growth/decline of leading wine types on menu, 2018 and 2019
Sparkling wins for experience/refreshment, loses out on natural; still can make this work
Figure 16: Perception of Champagne/sparkling wine launches versus all wine launches, January 2019-August 2020
Smaller segments can use pandemic to kickstart long overdue growth
On-prem sales were gaining on off-prem through 2019, watch out for cliff
Figure 17: US volume sales of wine, by channel, 2015-19
Domestic wine holding lead; brands that tell a story will win
Figure 18: US volume sales of table wine, by origin, 2017-19
MARKET FACTORS 
Wine’s tie to income/employment may lead to more drinkers jumping ship
Figure 19: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-August 2020
Figure 20: Alcohol consumption, by employment status, July 2020
Increased stress has driven some to drink more
Figure 21: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol consumption, July 2020
Figure 22: Reasons for drinking more alcohol, July 2020
Figure 23: Alcohol motivations, July 2020
Figure 24: Coronavirus exposure concern and coronavirus life disruption concern, March-October 2020
Figure 25: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol consumption, by age, July 2020
Change in habits had the strongest initial impact on decreases
Figure 26: Reasons for drinking less alcohol, July 2020
COVID-19 increased drinking alone, on weeknights and via delivery
Figure 27: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol behavior, July 2020
Figure 28: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
Interest in health challenges alcohol, slightly less of a challenge for wine
Figure 29: Mintel Trend Driver Wellbeing
Figure 30: Alcohol statements – Health – Any agree, by wine consumption, July 2020
Red leads for perception of health
Figure 31: Top three wine launches ranked by healthy, January 2019-August 2020
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
Strong growing segments point to the importance of experience
Figure 32: Mintel Trend Driver Experiences
Figure 33: Top three wine launches ranked by appealing packaging, January 2019-August 2020
Bolster infrastructure for at-home exploration
Start with strengths: food pairing
Figure 34: Alcohol motivations, by alcohol consumption – Wine at home, July 2020
Nurture exploration (and loyalty) through delivery and subscriptions
Cater to the new normal
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
Gallo continues its MULO lead
Private label continues massive growth; no end in sight
Boxed wine boom
Brands aim at inclusivity
MARKET SHARE
10 companies control 63% of MULO sales of wine
E&amp;J Gallo continues its MULO lead, aims at diversified portfolio and consumer base
Constellation focuses on some high-end sellers, looks to expand ecommerce.
Deustch Family Wines climbs to #4 spot with Josh
Boxed wine surge helps DFV post double-digit gains
Private label continues massive growth, should continue as such
Sales of wine by company 
Figure 35: US multi-outlet sales of wine, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending September 6, 2020
Figure 36: US multi-outlet sales of wine, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES
Some wine brands have value in the bag (in box)
Figure 37: Mintel Trend Driver Value
Figure 38: Perception of box wine launches versus all wine launches, January 2019-August 2020
Addressing the RTD craze, by launching RTDs
Brands aim at inclusivity
Figure 39: Mintel Trend Driver Identity
Figure 40: Wine consumption at home – CHAID – Tree output, July 2020
Figure 41: Alcohol consumption at home – CHAID – Table output, July 2020
Focus on farming practices leads claims growth
Figure 42: Mintel Trend Driver Surroundings
Figure 43: Wine launches by leading claims, 2018-20*
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
Wine is second leading alcohol type consumed; a young bright spot seen
Frequency of consumption makes wine a household staple
Table wine continues lead, but sparkling and wine cocktails gain traction 
Consumers want a quick and easy way to know what to expect
Boosting knowledge and confidence in the category can spur engagement
WINE CONSUMPTION
Wine continues to come in second to beer; celebrate later
Figure 44: Alcohol consumption, July 2020
Wine wins women
Figure 45: Alcohol consumption, by gender, July 2020
Wine is the at-home drink of choice for elusive 22-24 set
Figure 46: Alcohol consumption, by age, July 2020
In engaging Hispanics, focus on Hispanic Millennials
Figure 47: Alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin and generation, July 2020
Consumption’s tie to income requires vigilance during uncertain times
Figure 48: Alcohol consumption, by HH income, July 2020
Parents are a core wine drinking audience
Figure 49: Alcohol consumption, by parental status, July 2020
WINE CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY
13% of wine drinkers do so daily
Figure 50: Wine consumption frequency, July 2020
Convenience can help build appeal among frequent male drinkers of wine
Figure 51: Wine consumption frequency, by gender, July 2020
Close to one in five parents drink wine daily
Figure 52: Wine consumption frequency, by parental status, July 2020
Wine brands can reach the majority of under 45s multiple times per week
Figure 53: Wine consumption frequency, by age, July 2020
Frequent consumption correlates with household income
Figure 54: Wine consumption frequency, by HH income, July 2020
FACTORS IMPORTANT IN WINE CHOICE
Consumers want a quick and easy way to know what to expect
Figure 55: Important factors, July 2020
Women are especially on the lookout for taste expectations
Figure 56: Important factors, by gender, July 2020
Appeal to younger consumers with design and recommendations
Figure 57: Important factors, by age, July 2020
Rosé drinkers want it to look good and to be told it is good
Figure 58: Important factors, by wine type consumed – Color, July 2020
Dessert wines could benefit from some promotion and packaging flare
Figure 59: Top three fortified/other wine launches ranked by appealing packaging, January 2019-August 2020
Figure 60: Important factors, by wine type consumed, July 2020
Experts are driven by brand; beginners can be wooed by a deal
Figure 61: Important factors, by wine knowledge, July 2020
Frequent drinkers don’t eschew design, health
Figure 62: Important factors, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
WINE TYPE CONSUMED
Red wins out slightly to white
Figure 63: Wine type consumed, July 2020
Red’s popularity bolstered by versatility; all types should play to strengths
Figure 64: Wine type consumed, by alcohol motivation, July 2020
Wine cocktails see strongest surge
Figure 65: Wine type consumed, July 2019 and July 2020
Start with women in the wine cocktail movement
Figure 66: Wine type consumed, by gender, July 2020
Wine cocktails are a strong point of entry for newer drinkers
Figure 67: Wine type consumed, by age, July 2020
Rosé is a strong candidate for cocktails/RTDs
Figure 68: Select wine types, by select wine types, July 2020
Court Hispanic drinkers with reds, wine cocktails
Figure 69: Wine type consumed, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
Daily drinkers are most likely to drink white wine
Figure 70: Wine type consumed, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
A higher percentage of wine drinkers drink domestic varieties
Figure 71: Wine type, by provenance, July 2020
WINE FORMATS PURCHASED
Standard bottles still rule; growth points to casualization and convenience
Figure 72: Wine formats purchased, July 2019 and 2020
$11-20 is the wine sweet spot
Figure 73: Wine price point, July 2020
WINE KNOWLEDGE AND EXPLORATION
More than a third of wine drinkers consider themselves to be beginners
Figure 74: Wine knowledge, July 2020
Men are three times as likely as women to consider themselves experts
Figure 75: Wine knowledge, by gender, July 2020
Younger drinkers show some confidence in their wine knowledge
Figure 76: Wine knowledge, by age, July 2020
Enlarging the base of Hispanic wine drinkers may require confidence boost 
Figure 77: Wine knowledge, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
One in five daily wine drinkers consider themselves beginners
Figure 78: Wine knowledge, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
Education will be a strong means of engagement
Figure 79: Wine exploration, July 2020
Retain younger drinkers through education
Figure 80: Wine exploration, by age, July 2020
Daily drinkers are a good place to start for exploration
Figure 81: Wine exploration, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
ALCOHOL STATEMENTS
Flavor leads wine drinkers’ alcohol choice; event type has outsized impact
Figure 82: Alcohol statements – Choice drivers – Any agree, by wine consumption, July 2020
Wine brands need to own occasions to appeal to younger drinkers
Figure 83: Alcohol statements – Choice drivers – Any agree, by age, July 2020
Wine drinkers are more likely than average to support small brands
Figure 84: Alcohol statements – Brand – Any agree, by wine consumption, July 2020
Brand-conscious men can provide a strong ground for experimentation
Figure 85: Alcohol statements – Brand – Any agree, by gender, July 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Forecast
Consumer survey data
CHAID methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 86: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2015-23
Figure 87: Total US volume sales and forecast of table wine, 2015-23
Figure 88: Total US volume sales and forecast of champagne/sparkling wine, 2015-23
Figure 89: Total US volume sales and forecast of dessert & fortified wine, 2015-23
Figure 90: Total US volume sales and forecast of vermouth & aperitif, 2015-23
Figure 91: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2015-19
Figure 92: US volume sales of table wine, by origin, 2015-19
Figure 93: US volume sales of champagne/sparkling wine, by origin, 2015-19
Figure 94: US volume sales of dessert and fortified wine, by origin, 2015-19
Figure 95: US volume sales of vermouth and aperitif, by origin, 2015-19
Figure 96: US volume sales of wine, by channel, 2015-19
APPENDIX – COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Figure 97: US multi-outlet sales of wine, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 98: US multi-outlet sales of domestic table/still wine, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 99: US multi-outlet sales of imported table/still wine, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 100: US multi-outlet sales of sherry/vermouth/champagne, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020