Dairy and Non-dairy Milk: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - October 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Key issues covered in this Report
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Top takeaways
Market overview
Dairy yields to pricing pressures and recession
Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
Non-dairy milk continues to gain momentum
Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk
Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk, October 2020
Challenges and Opportunities
Re-emergence
Figure 4: Changes in purchase behavior, July 2020
Remind consumers how milk(s) does a body good
Figure 5: Interest in health claims, July 2020
Recovery
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
Dairy milk prices and supply continue on COVID-19 roller coaster
Desire for health and wellness fuel interest in non-dairy milk
Dairy milk still dominates, but non-dairy increasing its share of the pie
Functional benefits are the new black
Ingredients and flavor innovation reinvigorate the category
Unique plant-based sources for non-dairy
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 
Pandemic provides a boost to dairy and non-dairy milk sales
Figure 6: Total US sales of the milk market, at current prices, 2015-20
Higher dairy milk prices and increased grocery spending lifts sales
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
Health and wellness trends underscore non-dairy milk boom
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk
Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk, October 2020
Lockdown
Re-emergence
Recovery
COVID-19: US context
Learnings from the last recession
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2007-2012
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Non-dairy grows share of category sales
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of milk, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Refrigerated dairy milk accounts for bulk of segment sales
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Coconut and other non-dairy bases are on the fast track
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
MARKET FACTORS 
Volatility of dairy prices
Figure 14: Average price of milk (gallon), January 2010-June 2020
Figure 15: Average price of milk (gallon) during pandemic, March-August 2020
Pandemic-induced recession disrupts shopping habits
Figure 16: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000 – May 2020
Adults aged 25-34 most engaged in category
Figure 17: Types of milk purchased, by age, July 2020
Figure 18: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2014-24
Families are a key demographic for milk marketers
Figure 19: Types of milk purchased, by parental status, July 2020
Figure 20: Households by presence of related children, 2008-18
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES 
Elevate nutritional profile with functional benefits
Indulgence, global culinary influence delivers on experience
Exploring new sources for non-dairy milk
Beyond the supermarket
Figure 21: Total US retail sales of milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Address the taste issue
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
Private label dominates dairy milk
Danone and Blue Diamond comprise majority of non-dairy sales
Private label marketers accelerating product launch activity
MARKET SHARE
Dairy milk dominated by private label; growth evident in premium brands
Figure 22: US multi-outlet market share of dairy milk, by leading companies, 2020
Figure 23: US multi-outlet sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Danone and Blue Diamond lead non-dairy milk
Figure 24: US multi-outlet market share of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, 2020
Figure 25: US multi-outlet sales of non- dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Company/brand sales by segment
Refrigerated dairy milk led by premium varieties
Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Flavor innovation invigorates shelf-stable dairy milk
Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Almond milk performance remains steadfast
Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Coconut milk booms with more players competing
Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Soy milks continue to struggle
Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Oat milk marketers drive growth
Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of other non-dairy drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES
MilkPEP reminds Americans to get milk
Shift in 2020 strategy: Branded vs. Private Label
Figure 32: Dairy milk launches in the US, by private label, 2015-20*
Private label ramps up non-dairy innovation
Figure 33: Non-dairy milk launches in the US, by private label, 2015-20*
Premium brands prepare for increased competition in the dairy aisle
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Dairy milk is a household staple; plant-based milks reach majority
Dual purchases common, but dairy milk used most often
Taste and function support dual purchase habits
Plant based abstainers need convincing
Plant-based milks may be trendy, but they fall short on taste perceptions
Pandemic milk purchase surge already stabalized
Milk’s a great start to the day
Shifting from nutritional health to a functional focus
MILK PURCHASES
Dairy milk has broad penetration; plant-based milks are bought by 51%
Figure 34: Types of milk purchased (Net), July 2020
Versatility of regular, unflavored milk keeps in on the grocery list
Figure 35: Types of milk purchased, July 2020
Milk purchase is not singular
Figure: 36 Repertoire analysis – Repertoire of milk purchases, July 2020
Millennials embrace plant-based milks
Figure 37: Types of milk purchased, by generation, July 2020
Plant-based milks popular among parents with younger kids
Figure 38: Types of milk purchased, by children in household, July 2020
MILK USAGE
Plant-based milks most often bought in addition to dairy milk
Figure 39: Types of milk purchased, by segment, July 2020
Plant-based milks are mostly “one and done”
Figure 40: Types of milk purchased – repertoire of plant-based, July 2020
Dairy milk used most often within household
Figure 41: Type of milk used most often, July 2020
Plant-based milks popular among parents with younger kids
Figure 42: Type of milk used most often, by parental status, July 2020
REASONS FOR DUAL PURCHASES
Taste and function support dual purchase habits
Figure 43: Reasons for dual purchases, July 2020
Millennials enjoy the taste of dairy and non-dairy milks
Figure 44: Reasons for dual purchases, by generation, July 2020
Parents seek multiple products to satisfy varied palates, needs
Figure 45: Reasons for dual purchases, by parental status, July 2020
Lactose intolerance drives dual purchases among Blacks
Figure 46: Reasons for dual purchases, by race, July 2020
BARRIERS TO PLANT-BASED MILK PURCHASES
Figure 47: Barriers to plant-based milk purchases, July 2020
Sorry plant-based milks, older consumers are just not that into you
Figure 48: Barriers to plant-based milk purchases, by age, July 2020
MILK ASSOCIATIONS
Dairy milks perceived as tasty; non-dairy milks considered trendy
Figure 49: Milk associations, July 2020
Plant-based milks align as healthy for consumers and environment
Figure 50: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Milk associations, July 2020
Figure 51: Correspondence Analysis – Principal map – Milk associations, July 2020
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON MILK PURCHASES
Pandemic has minimal impact on milk purchase behavior frequency
Figure 52: Changes in purchase behavior, July 2020
Milk purchases among 55+ cohort remains unchanged
Figure 53: Changes in purchase behavior, by age, July 2020
Purchase incidence among parents grows due to pandemic
Figure 54: Changes in purchase behavior, by parental status, July 2020
At-home behaviors drive frequency of milk consumption
Figure 55: Reasons for buying more milk during COVID-19, July 2020
Women use more milk for culinary purposes
Figure 56: Reasons for buying more milk during COVID-19, by gender, July 2020
ATTITUDES TOWARD MILK
Milk – it’s what’s for breakfast
Figure 57: Attitudes toward milk, July 2020
Millennials pay premium for local sourcing
Figure 58: Attitudes toward milk, by generation, July 2020
Parents see milk as a healthy start to the day
Figure 59: Attitudes toward milk, by parental status, July 2020
INTEREST IN HEALTH CLAIMS
Iconic milk claims still resonate with consumers
Figure 60: Interest in health claims, July 2020
Women seek functional health benefits from milk
Figure 61: Interest in health claims, by gender, July 2020
Gen Z focused on health claims that can benefit them now
Figure 62: Interest in health claims, by generation, July 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Forecast
Consumer survey data
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 65: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 66: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 67: Total US sales of refrigerated dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 68: Total US sales of shelf stable dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 69: Total US sales of almond milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 70: Total US sales of coconut milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 71: Total US sales of soy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 72: Total US sales of other non-dairy drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 73: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Figure 74: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, at channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 75: US supermarket sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 76: US drugstore sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 77: US sales of dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 78: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Figure 79: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 80: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 81: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Methodology