Fish and Shellfish: Inc Impact of COVID-19 - UK - August 2020

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this Report
COVID-19: Market context
Economic and other assumptions
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish
Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish, 30 August 2020
The market
Inflation masks volatile volume sales performance over 2015-20
Further inflation and volatile volume sales anticipated for 2020-25
Figure 2: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, 2015-25
Ambient and frozen fish are main beneficiaries from COVID-19 lockdown
Figure 3: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by format, 2015-20
Calls to action on marine conservation and sustainability
UK’s trade relations post-Brexit are crucial for the category
Companies and brands
Own-label dominates sales in the chilled fish segment
Own-label wins in frozen among rising inflation and uncertainty
Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK frozen fish and shellfish market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Own-label grows value share in ambient to 50%
Figure 5: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK ambient fish and shellfish market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Sustainable claims are widespread in fish/shellfish
High protein is the most widespread health claim, but still only 14%
Leading brands push meal occasions and quality in their marketing
Brands respond to COVID-19 online
The consumer
Nine in 10 adults eat fish or shellfish
Figure 6: Usage of fish and shellfish, by type, June 2020
Over half of people stick to only a few fish types
Familiarity chimes for trying new products
Figure 7: Prompts to try a new fish/shellfish product, June 2020
Ease of cooking and low price rate highly in product choice
Figure 8: Factors influencing choice of fish and shellfish, June 2020
New species suggestions appeal to seven in 10 users/buyers
Figure 9: Fish and shellfish eating and buying behaviours, June 2020
29% have eaten plant-based fish alternatives
Figure 10: Fish and shellfish non-users’ behaviours, June 2020
A third of buyers would buy less fish/shellfish if they had less money
Figure 11: Expected reactions to the recession, June 2020
Opportunities for fish/shellfish to benefit from the meat reduction trend
Figure 12: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, June 2020
COVID-19 AND FISH AND SHELLFISH
Impact on the market
Lockdowns cause price fluctuations and boost sales of frozen and ambient
Fish and shellfish is set to lose out during the recession
Impact on consumers
Scratch cooking trend offers opportunities for the category…
…as does consumers’ renewed health focus
Greater urgency to prove commitment to sustainability
Impact on companies and brands
Own-label reaps the benefits of the growth in frozen and ambient
Brands offer advice to consumers during the lockdown
Growth in online retail opens up opportunities for more direct-to-consumer sales
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Highlight fish’s functional benefits to harness consumers’ heightened health-consciousness in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
Promote lesser-known species as a financially savvy and ethical choice
Offer meal ideas to encourage more frequent usage
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Inflation masks volatile volume sales performance over 2015-20
Further inflation and volatile volume sales anticipated for 2020-25
Ambient and frozen fish are main beneficiaries from COVID-19 lockdown
Calls to action on marine conservation and sustainability
UK’s trade relations post-Brexit are crucial for the category
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish
Figure 13: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish, 30 August 2020
Inflation masks volatile volume sales performance over 2015-20
Rise in value and volume sales in 2020
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales for fish and shellfish, 2015-25 (prepared on 27th August 2020)
Further inflation and volume sales volatility expected for 2020-25
Brexit to drive inflation in the category
Volume sales to fall during recession…
…but consumer health trend should offer some, though diminishing support
Figure 15: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, 2015-25
Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2015-25
Market drivers and assumptions
Figure 17: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 27th August 2020)
Learnings from the last recession
Figure 18: UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, by value and volume, 2005-10
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Falling prices prompt a modest rise in chilled fish volume sales in 2020
Figure 19: Value and volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2015-20
Frozen products benefit from the national lockdown
Figure 20: Value and volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2015-20
Ambient products see a renaissance in 2020
Figure 21: Value and volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2015-20
MARKET DRIVERS
Fish prices prove volatile over 2018-20
Environmental issues impact the category
Parliamentary committee urges the government to take action on marine conservation
WWF criticises EU for ‘missing deadline’ on sustainability targets
Concerns grow as stocks of popular fish species fall
Supermarkets slammed over fish farming’s impact on marine ecosystems
UK’s trade relations post-Brexit are crucial for the category
Decline in the child population will hinder the category
Figure 22: Weekly or more frequent usage of fish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
Figure 23: Weekly or more frequent usage of shellfish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Own-label dominates sales in the chilled fish segment
Own-label wins in frozen among rising inflation and uncertainty
Own-label grows value share in ambient to 50%
Sustainable claims are widespread in fish/shellfish
High protein is the most widespread health claim, but still only 14%
Leading brands push meal occasions and quality in their marketing
Brands respond to COVID-19 online
MARKET SHARE
Own-label dominates sales in the chilled fish segment
Own-label reaps the benefits of frozen fish’s 2020 sales boom
Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK frozen fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
Figure 25: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK frozen fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
Own-label is the chief beneficiary of ambient fish’s 2020 renaissance
Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK ambient fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
Figure 27: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK ambient fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Sustainable claims are widespread in fish/shellfish
Figure 28: Share of new product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market with ethical and environmental claims, 2016-20 (sorted by 2019)
Fish Said Fred claims UK first with ASC-certified sea bass and bream
Figure 29: Example of the Fish Said Fred range, 2020
Brands and retailers look to make their environmental credentials more tangible
Figure 30: Examples of fish/shellfish launches giving on-pack details of their environmental policies, 2019-20
Putting the spotlight on lesser-known species
Figure 31: Iceland’s What the Fish? range gives the limelight to lesser-known fish species, 2018
Brands and retailers take action on plastic
Princes replaces plastic with cardboard on its tuna multipacks
Lidl introduces new packaging made partly from salvaged ocean plastic
Waitrose explores packaging made from langoustine shells
Waitrose claims UK first by selling British shellfish originally destined for restaurants
High protein is the most widespread health claim, but still only 14%
Figure 32: Share of new product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market with health claims, 2016-20 (sorted by 2019)
Brands and retailers emphasise the health credentials of fish-in-sauce products
Figure 33: Examples of fish-in-sauce/marinade launches with high-protein claims, 2020
Young’s puts the focus on permissibility with reduced fat battered product
Figure 34: Young’s launches reduced fat battered fish product, 2020
Functional health claims are underexplored in the fish/shellfish category
Highlight selenium in fish to tap into increased consumer interest in immune health
Figure 35: The Big Prawn Company’s lobster makes immune health claim, 2019
Put a stronger emphasis on oily fish’s links with brain and eye health
Figure 36: Waitrose & Partners Scrumptious Summer Thai Salmon Burgers making functional health claims relating to omega-3, 2020
Modest rise in premium claims in 2019
Figure 37: Share of new product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market with a premium claim, 2016-20
Brands and retailers explore alternatives to standard breadcrumbs
Figure 38: Examples of coated fish/shellfish products using alternatives to standard breadcrumbs, 2019-20
Opportunities for link-ups with craft brands on beer-battered fish
M&amp;S launches what it terms its ‘best ever’ fish cake
Figure 39: Examples of premium own-label fish launches, 2020
Smoked mackerel launch pushes seasonality
Figure 40: Smoked mackerel launch references seasonality, 2020
Private label leads on launch activity
Figure 41: New product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market, by private label and branded, 2016-20
Spar launches its own chilled fish range
New formats offer potential competition for processed meat products
Figure 42: Examples of own-label fish products in formats normally seen in the processed meat category, 2020
Exploring international flavours
Figure 43: Examples of fish/shellfish launches with international flavours, 2019-20
Brands look to attract new users
Young’s redesigns its packaging to appeal to foodies…
…and launches new product designed to appeal to teenagers
Figure 44: Young’s looks to appeal to teenagers with fish ‘quarter pounders’, 2020
Princes launches new products intended to ‘meet the needs of modern family life’
Figure 45: New product launches from Princes, 2019
John West launches its first children’s product
Young’s extends its chilled fish offering
Birds Eye launches extra-large fish fingers
Brands and retailers release fish substitute products
Figure 46: Examples of fish substitutes launches, 2019
Ambient fish alternatives gain supermarket listings
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Retailers lead on advertising in 2019
Figure 47: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, 2019 and 2020
Birds Eye is the biggest individual spender in 2019
TV adverts highlight products’ wholesome credentials
‘Follow the Fish’ initiative marks MSC certification
Website offers suggestions on how to keep children entertained during the lockdown
Figure 48: Banner headline for section of Birds Eye website giving advice on activities for children, 2020
Making fish finger sandwiches promoted as a ‘fun and filling lunchtime activity’
Figure 49: Instagram post from Birds Eye promoting its fish finger sandwich recipes, 2020
Interactive campaign pushes the money-saving aspects of frozen food
Figure 50: Facebook post from Birds Eye promoting the winner of its ‘Frozen Food Heroes’ competition, 2020
Princes focuses on meal occasions and promotes its ethical credentials
Mackerel Sizzle presented as a convenient and healthy evening meal option
Recipe suggestions promoted as allowing people to ‘make the most of what you have’
Figure 51: Instagram post by Princes, 23 March 2020
Charity link-ups during the pandemic should have generated consumer goodwill
Packaging redesign portrayed as helping to preserve environment for future generations
Young’s 2020 campaign pushes fish’s versatility
TV advert highlights brand’s heritage and encourages people to ‘master mealtimes’
Figure 52: Young’s ‘Masters of Fish’ TV advert, 2020
‘Young’s Kitchen’ campaign offers recipes and tips
Selected supermarket campaigns
Asda positions fish as helping people to make a healthy start to the New Year…
…and praises frozen fish as a good value and ethical option
Lidl promotes its use of salvaged ocean plastic in packaging
Figure 53: Lidl press advert promoting its use of salvaged ocean plastic in packaging for its chilled fish range, 2020
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Nine in 10 adults eat fish or shellfish
Over half of people stick to only a few fish types
Ease of cooking appeals widely
New species suggestions interest two in three
29% of fish/shellfish non-users have eaten plant-based fish alternatives
A third of buyers would buy less fish/shellfish if they had less money
Opportunities for fish/shellfish to benefit from the meat reduction trend
Sourcing from unpolluted waters chimes widely
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOURS
Offer recipe suggestions to capitalise on the growth in scratch cooking
Lockdown sees uplift in scratch cooking
Figure 54: Changes to cooking from scratch since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age and gender, 23 April-7 May 2020
Fish and shellfish can capitalise on the cooking trend
Tinned products have the chance to shine
Strong interest in tinned food from parents, recession should boost appeal
Figure 55: Those expressing an increased interest in a greater variety of tinned food since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age of children in the household, May 2020
Increased consumer health focus provides opportunities for the category
A stronger focus on fish/shellfish’s immune health benefits is needed
Figure 56: Those saying they had become more interested in foods that support the immune system, by age of children in the household, May 2020
Growth in online retail opens up opportunities for more direct-to-consumer sales
Increased interest in buying local boosts fishmongers
Consumers’ renewed environmental focus poses a challenge and an opportunity
Plant-based fish alternatives have the chance to grow
Figure 57: Agreement that the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak has made a vegan diet more appealing, by age, 23 April -7 May 2020
USAGE OF FISH AND SHELLFISH
Nine in 10 adults eat fish or shellfish
Figure 58: Usage of fish and shellfish, by type, June 2020
Over-55s are higher users of fish and shellfish…
…but parents of under-16s are the most frequent users
Figure 59: Weekly or more frequent usage of fish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
Figure 60: Weekly or more frequent usage of shellfish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
Frozen formats lead for fish, while frozen and ambient are neck-and-neck for shellfish
Figure 61: Usage of fish and shellfish, by format, June 2020
Consumers’ financial health is crucial to the category
Figure 62: Usage of fish, by type, by those with ‘healthy’ vs those with ‘tight’ finances, June 2020
Figure 63: Usage of shellfish, by type, by those with ‘healthy’ vs those with ‘tight’ finances, June 2020
USAGE FREQUENCY FOR FISH AND SHELLFISH
Most adults eat fish and shellfish only occasionally
Figure 64: Usage frequency for fish, by format, June 2020
Figure 65: Usage frequency for shellfish, by format, June 2020
Many people use different formats and types to get their two portions a week
Recipe suggestions should help to encourage more frequent usage of shellfish
BUYING FACTORS FOR FISH AND SHELLFISH
Over half of people stick to only a few fish types
Figure 66: Fish/shellfish buying habits, June 2020
People with tight finances are more likely to buy a wide range of different types
Many people are open to trying new products
Figure 67: Prompts to try a new fish/shellfish product, June 2020
Similarity to their favourite fish/shellfish types sways four in 10
Supporting British fisheries is particularly important to over-55s
Combine ‘support British fisheries’ and sustainable claims to strengthen ethical image
Ease of cooking is valued by many
Figure 68: Factors influencing choice of fish and shellfish, June 2020
Highlight ease and speed more prominently on-pack
Figure 69: Waitrose & Partners Easy to Cook Scottish Salmon emphasising ease and speed on-pack, 2020
Scope for expansion in cook-in-the-bag formats
Figure 70: International examples of whole fish products promoted as a convenient option, 2019
Recipe suggestions would help companies to tap into the rise in home cooking
Price is a key buying factor for fish/shellfish
Sustainability concerns underpin some consumers’ wide repertoires
FISH AND SHELLFISH EATING AND BUYING BEHAVIOURS
New species suggestions appeal to seven in 10 users/buyers
Figure 71: Fish and shellfish eating and buying behaviours, June 2020
Use online channels to promote different species
Highlight the ethical aspects of choosing alternatives to popular species
Half of buyers check for sustainability labels on-pack
Need to make sustainability claims more tangible
UK and European companies look to demonstrate their environmental commitments
Figure 72: International examples of shellfish products with on-pack environmental statements, 2019-20
48% of users try to eat two portions of fish/shellfish a week
Need to educate consumers on the importance on fish/shellfish’s health benefits
NON-USERS’ BEHAVIOURS
29% have eaten plant-based fish alternatives
Figure 73: Fish and shellfish non-users’ behaviours, June 2020
Promote the environmental benefits of fish alternatives to boost usage
Develop more fortified products to strengthen fish alternatives’ health image
EXPECTED REACTIONS TO THE RECESSION
A third of buyers would buy less, while 38% would wait for promotions
Figure 74: Expected reactions to the recession, June 2020
Frozen products set to get more of a sales boost than canned
A quarter of people who would buy frozen more would also buy canned more
Need to promote tinned fish as a good value option that also delivers quality and taste
A stronger focus on provenance would help to build quality image
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FISH AND SHELLFISH
Fish or shellfish sourced from unpolluted waters appeal to many
Figure 75: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, June 2020
Supplement sustainable sourcing claims with clean water claims
Producers of farmed fish must underline their care for their fish and the environment
Opportunities for fish/shellfish to benefit from the meat reduction trend
Over-55s are especially likely to see fish as a healthy alternative to meat
Direct comparisons with meat should help to strengthen fish’s health image
47% of users see fish/shellfish as an environmentally friendly alternative to meat
Sauces are valuable in boosting fish/shellfish’s appeal
Opportunities for cross-promotions
Need to reassure consumers of frozen fish/shellfish’s quality
Figure 76: Examples of premium own-label frozen fish/shellfish products with a clear window on-pack showing the contents, 2020
Opportunities for breaded/battered products with a clean-label focus
Figure 77: International examples of frozen breaded/battered fish products highlighting their simple ingredients, 2019-20
Explain the reasons for use of additional ingredients
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology