Chocolate Confectionery: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - May 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Key issues covered in this Report
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Market overview
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
Top takeaways
Impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confectionery
Figure 2: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confectionery, May 2020
The issues
Chocolate confectionery wins among sweet treats, but could use a boost
Sugar avoidance is real
Figure 3: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, February 2020
Little guys have a steep uphill climb, but can gain footing
Figure 4: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, February 2020
The opportunities
Seasonal and sugar free segments see strongest growth
Figure 5: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment share, 2017-19
Packaging and flavor innovation can be differentiators
Figure 6: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, February 2020
Boosting online sales of chocolate
Figure 7: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, February 2020
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY
Figure 8: Short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confection, May 2020
Opportunities and Threats
Consumers are eating their feelings
Figure 9: Snack motivations, November 2018
Brand pecking order could be up for grabs
Figure 10: Perception of food/drink brands, February 2019
eChocolate and DTC meet consumer cravings where they need them
Figure 11: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – online shopping, May 28, 2020-June 4, 2020
Snack sizes should crawl out of slump
Seasonal will need some extra attention
Sooner than later we’ll have to put our real clothes on
Impact on the chocolate confectionery market
Category should see a welcomed 2020 bump from COVID-19, but not all segments will be treated equally
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
How the crisis will affect chocolate confectionery’s key consumers
Young shoppers may be drawn further toward PL and value snacks
Chocolaty reward systems now adult friendly
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the chocolate confectionery industry
Longer-term financial strain on individuals will extend to discretionary purchases
COVID-19: Chocolate confectionery context
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Chocolate confectionery sales tempered amid a bustling snack market
Growth in seasonal and sugar free highlights interest in variety, health
Snack categories only manage small gains during a snack heyday
Majority of consumers are limiting sugar consumption
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Chocolate confectionery limited to slow creep amid snack boom
Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Seasonal and sugar-free segments see strongest growth
Figure 15: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment share, 2017-19
Declines in snack size should be recovered due to COVID-19
Gift boxes could also use the pandemic as a time of reinvention
Figure 16: Total US sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2014-24
Drug stores lose share of chocolate confectionery sales
Figure 17: Total US retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Snack boom doesn’t ensure boom times for all snack categories
Figure 18: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2014-19
Figure 19: Dessert and confection consumption, March 2020
Get the other snack categories covered
MARKET FACTORS 
Majority of consumers aim to follow a healthy diet; sugar reduction is a primary focus
Figure 20: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
Where chocolate doesn’t convey health, it can suffice for wellbeing
Figure 21: 2020 health and wellness goals – Any do (net), November 2019
Fun and function are on par for snackers
Figure 22: Snack motivations, November 2018
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Hershey continues category dominance, private label sees strong growth
Sugar content going in the wrong direction
Plain chocolate leads among launches, but innovation points to variety
Ethical claims on the rise, should stick around
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY
Hershey continues category dominance, private label sees strong growth
Figure 23: Share of sales chocolate confectionery, by company, 52 weeks ending February 23, 2020
Figure 24: Sales of chocolate confectionery, by company, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2019 and 52 weeks ending February 23, 2020
WHAT’S WORKING
Four in 10 chocolate launches are seasonal
Figure 25: Chocolate launches, by sub-category, 2018-20*
Ethical claims rise to the top
Figure 26: Chocolate launches, by leading claims, 2018-20*
No added sugar claims grows by 247%, but more can be done
Figure 27: Chocolate launches, by fasted growing claims, 2018-20*
Figure 28: Chocolate launches, by sugar total, 2018-20*
Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of sugar free chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Plain chocolate leads, fast growing flavors show needed variety
Figure 30: Chocolate launches, by leading flavors, 2018-20*
Figure 31: Chocolate launches, by fastest growing flavors, 2018-20*
Good value drives purchase intent
Trustworthy brands provide value, encourage trial
Private label success points to shifting priorities
Figure 32: Multi-outlet sales of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 33: Multi-outlet sales of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
WHAT’S STRUGGLING
Private label seasonal loses interest
Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Snack size stalls at MULO
Figure 35: Multi-outlet sales of snack size chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Gift boxes nose dive, a refresh is in order
Figure 36: Multi-outlet sales of chocolate gift boxes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Health driven by healthy mix-ins and diet tie-ins, hampered by price
WHAT TO WATCH
Could honey hit the sweet spot?
Specialized diet offerings could lead to mainstream innovation
Dairy free is a natural area of opportunity
Will ruby chocolate find a home in the US?
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Household penetration of chocolate confectionery has dipped since 2018
A quarter of chocolate eaters have more recently increased consumption 
Increased snacking drives increased chocolate consumption, not enough
Store brands don’t have strong resonance, for now
Chocolate confectionery needs to strengthen case as treat of choice
CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY CONSUMPTION
Household penetration of chocolate confectionery dips
Figure 37: Chocolate confectionery purchase, February 2018 and February 2020
Small sizes appeal to women
Figure 38: Share of chocolate purchase – for self, by gender, February 2020
Reinventing the boxed segment could find favor with under 45s
Figure 39: Share of chocolate purchase – for self, by age, February 2020
Snack size finds particular interest among parents
Figure 40: Chocolate purchase, by parental status, February 2020
Figure 41: Chocolate purchase – for child, February 2020
Chocolate eaters like variety
Figure 42: Repertoire analysis – Chocolate purchase – For myself, February 2020
Solid chocolate leads, followed by nut mix-ins
Figure 43: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, February 2020
Women are strong target for simple options
Figure 44: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, by gender, February 2020
Hispanics gravitate toward nut mix-ins
Figure 45: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, by Hispanic origin, February 2020
CHANGE IN CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY CONSUMPTION
A quarter of chocolate eaters have increased consumption in the past year 
Figure 46: Change in chocolate confectionery consumption, February 2020
Increased snacking drives increased chocolate consumption
Figure 47: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, February 2020
Men are driving the increase in chocolate consumption
Figure 48: Change in chocolate confectionery consumption, by gender, February 2020
Category health innovation not resonating with women
Figure 49: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, by gender, February 2020
Time savings and variety appeal to under 45s
Figure 50: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, by age, February 2020
Sugar avoidance challenges chocolate consumption
Figure 51: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, February 2020
Older shoppers are health aware, younger shoppers price conscious
Figure 52: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, by age, February 2020
TYPES OF CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY PURCHASED
Style
Milk chocolate leads, but variety will help spur trial
Figure 53: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, February 2020
Interest in dark chocolate grows with age
Figure 54: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by age, February 2020
Parents can be targeted with products across the range
Figure 55: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by parental status, February 2020
Dark chocolate not as likely to resonate with Hispanic shoppers
Figure 56: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by Hispanic origin, February 2020
Seasonal
Christmas and Valentine’s lead seasonal purchase
Figure 57: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, February 2020
Women likely look to holidays for permission to indulge
Figure 58: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by gender, February 2020
Seasonal options are a luxury of higher-earning households
Figure 59: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by HH income, February 2020
Parents are strong targets for seasonal purchase
Figure 60: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by parental status, February 2020
Features
Store brands don’t have strong resonance, for now
Figure 61: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, February 2020
Younger shoppers are more open to store brand chocolate
Figure 62: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, by age, February 2020
Only a quarter of parents look for chocolate aimed at kids
Figure 63: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, by parental status, February 2020
CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY PURCHASE LOCATION
Drug stores play an amplified role in chocolate confectionery purchase 
Figure 64: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, February 2020
Youngest adults prefer mass channels; 25-44s should be nurtured online
Figure 65: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by age, February 2020
Convenience store own brands have a strong chance at resonance
Figure 66: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by type – store brands, February 2020
Parents get chocolate wherever they can
Figure 67: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by parental status, February 2020
A quarter of buyers of chocolate aimed at kids purchase chocolate online
Figure 68: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by type – aimed at kids, February 2020
CHOCOLATE CONFECTIONERY PURCHASE FACTORS
Brand plays a strong role in chocolate purchase; little guys aren’t totally edged out
Second-tier drivers (flavor variety and health) have led increase in consumption
Interest in third-tier specialty offerings grows, presents opportunity for differentiation
Figure 69: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, February 2020
Specialty offerings find a larger audience among younger shoppers, pointing to future of category
Figure 70: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by age, February 2020
Dark chocolate buyers seek specialized claims, milk could take a cue
Figure 71: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by style, February 2020
PERCEPTION OF SNACK TYPES
Chocolate confectionery wins among sweet treats, but could use a boost
Highlight pleasure and enjoyment
Working toward wellness, but not winning
Figure 72: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Sweet snack comparison, February 2020
Figure 73: Sweet snack comparison, February 2020
PERCEPTION OF CONFECTIONERY TYPES
Chocolate is under-delivering on fun 
Nuts and fruit can help with health appeal
Figure 74: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Candy comparison, February 2020
Figure 75: Candy comparison, February 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Correspondence analysis methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack size chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack size chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate gift boxes, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate gift boxes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 86: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar free chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar free chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
APPENDIX – RETAIL CHANNELS  
Figure 88: US supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 89: US drug store sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 90: US convenience store sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 91: US sales of chocolate confectionery through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 92: Multi-outlet sales of chocolate confectionery, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020