Womenswear: Inc Impact of COVID-19 - UK - May 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Key issues covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Market
COVID-19 will lead to dramatic sales decline in 2020
Figure 1: Forecast for consumer spending on womenswear (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
Market will see some recovery in 2021
Brexit uncertainty remains
A fifth of women are really worried about 2020
Figure 2: How consumers feel about their financial situation over the next year, by gender, April 2020
Impact of COVID-19 on Womenswear
Opportunities and Threats 
Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on womenswear, short, medium and long term, May 2020
Companies and Brands
Primark is the favourite brand but seen as unethical
Figure 4: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2019-February 2020
Retailers use innovation to adapt to COVID-19 climate
Adspend falls slightly in 2019
The Consumer
Jeans remain popular, but trend for dresses grows
Figure 5: What clothing items women have bought in the last 3 months, March 2020
Big jump in young women shopping online
Figure 6: How women bought clothing in the last 12 months, December 2019
Value retailers most popular for fashion
Figure 7: Where women bought clothing in the last 12 months, December 2019
Price stands out as the biggest priority
Figure 8: Purchase drivers when buying womenswear from different types of clothing retailers, December 2019
Importance of special occasions
Figure 9: What encourages women to buy new clothing for themselves, December 2019
Issues with sizing 
Figure 10: Agreement or disagreement with attitudes towards buying womenswear, December 2019
Growing interest in sustainability
Figure 11: Interest in innovations when shopping for clothes, December 2019
Importance of versatile clothing 
Figure 12: Shopping behaviour when buying womenswear, December 2019
What we think
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON WOMENSWEAR
Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 13: Expected impact of COVID-19 on womenswear, short, medium and long-term, May 2020
Short term
Medium term
Long term
Opportunities and Threats
Elevating the online experience helps brands connect with customers
Figure 14: Seasalt’s online book club, May 2020
Digital communication replaces one-to-one interactions in the short term…
…and will be needed to ease consumer concern in the medium term…
…but such technology and services will leave a longer-term legacy on the market
Masks present a branding opportunity for fashion
Figure 15: Changes consumers have made as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age group, 9-16 April 2020
Figure 16: Little Mistress NHS Kindred Rainbow thank you NHS face mask, May 2020
Figure 17: Boohoo’s Woman face mask, May 2020
Using technology to deal with disruption to supply chains and fashion events
Value retailers to benefit and new discount players to emerge
Opportunities for retailers to support local manufacturing
Figure 18: Mulberry producing PPE gowns for the NHS, May 2020
Growth of second-hand market and swapping
Impact on the womenswear market
Dramatic decline in sales expected in 2020
Figure 19: Forecast for consumer spending on womenswear (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
Shift to online sales will not offset loss of store sales, but will create a legacy
Impact on the supply chain
More retailers will collapse in 2021 but the sector will see some recovery
Shifts in consumer behaviour
Shift towards more conspicuous spending
Figure 20: Consumers who expect to spend less on clothing and accessories over the next month, by gender and age group, 30 April – 7 May, 2020
Growing focus on health and wellbeing trend
Figure 21: Changes consumers have made as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age group, 9-16 April 2020
Support for local independent fashion retailers
Figure 22: Changes consumers have made as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age group, 7-14 May 2020
How the crisis will affect key consumer segments
Older women likely to continue to avoid visiting stores
Figure 23: Changes in shopping behaviour since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age group 7-14 May 2020
Young women will continue to shop online
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape womenswear
Savvy shopping behaviours will be accentuated
Value retailers benefited in the 2008/09 recession
Womenswear likely to be hit harder in this recession
Impact on the marketing mix
Brands showing support for COVID-19 effort viewed favourably
Figure 24: Nike’s Play Inside campaign, April 2020
More authentic imagery in fashion to become the norm
Figure 25: boohoointhehouse, May 2020
COVID-19: Market context
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Appealing to the under-served growing older female consumer
The facts
The implications 
Maintaining the focus on sustainability despite changing priorities
The facts
The implications 
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Womenswear sales see slow growth in 2019
COVID-19 will lead to dramatic sales decline in 2020
Market will see some recovery in 2021
High rates of female obesity
Brexit uncertainty remains
Women less positive about their financial wellbeing than men 
A fifth of women are really worried about 2020
55% of women plan to spend less on clothing 
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Womenswear sales see slow growth in 2019
Figure 26: Consumer spending on women’s clothing, at current and constant prices, 2014-19
Outlook in light of COVID-19
COVID-19 will lead to a dramatic sales decline in 2020
Figure 27: Forecast for consumer spending on womenswear (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
Figure 28: Forecast for consumer spending on womenswear (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
Market will see some recovery in 2021
Pre-COVID-19 forecast highlights the crisis’ impact on sales
Figure 29: Forecast for consumer spending on womenswear (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
Figure 30: Forecast for consumer spending on womenswear (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
Forecast methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Catering to an ageing population
Figure 31: Trends in the age structure of the female UK population, 2019 and 2024
High rates of female obesity
Womenswear deflation drops further
Figure 32: Consumer price inflation, January 2019-March 2020
Brexit uncertainty remains
Figure 33: Female consumer views on the impact of the EU referendum, April 2020
Women less positive about their financial wellbeing than men 
Figure 34: How consumers generally describe their financial situation at the moment, by gender and age, April 2020
A fifth of women are really worried about 2020
Figure 35: How consumers feel about their financial situation over the next year, by gender, April 2020
55% of women plan to spend less on clothing 
Figure 36: Consumers planning to spend more or less on clothing and accessories, by gender, 23-30 April 2020
Changes in habits and behaviour as a result of COVID-19
Figure 37: Consumers who have spent more time taking part in more home workouts since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, April 2020
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Retailers use innovation to adapt to COVID-19 climate
Celebrating new loungewear and streetwear collaborations 
Adspend falls slightly in 2019
Key campaigns focus on inclusivity 
Primark is the favourite brand but seen as unethical
M&amp;S makes Per Una focus of its stores 
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
How retailers are adapting to COVID-19 climate
Figure 38: Mango factory workers making gowns, March 2020
Rise in gender-fluid collections
Celebrating new loungewear and streetwear collaborations 
Figure 39: H&M & Desmond & Dempsey collaboration, spring 2020
New concept stores opened
Retailers add more sporty styles
Figure 40: M&S’ Goodmove athleisure range, January 2020
Growing focus on sustainability
Figure 41: John Lewis and Mother of Pearl collaboration, April 2020
Figure 42: Mango’s denim range as part of its Second Chances sustainable project, 2020
Using technology for fashion
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Adspend falls slightly in 2019
Spending fell 47% in April 2020
Figure 43: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on women’s fashion, 2015-20 (Jan-Apr 2020)
Growing spend on digital
Figure 44: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on women’s fashion, by media type, 2019
M&amp;S launches major womenswear campaign
Figure 45: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on women’s fashion, by top companies, 2019
Figure 46: M&S Per Una campaign, October 2019
Key campaigns
Sainsbury’s womenswear campaign focuses on inclusivity
Figure 47: Sainsbury’s #TuWorkIt campaign, September 2019
Nasty Gal’s celebrity model collaboration
Sosandar launches TV campaign
John Lewis launches fashion TV ad
Selfridges launches digital fashion campaign
COVID-19 will have a big impact on fashion marketing 
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 48: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2019-February 2020
Key brand metrics
Figure 49: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2019-February 2020
Brand attitudes: Next and Seasalt rated highly for customer service
Figure 50: Attitudes, by brand, September 2019-February 2020
Brand personality: PrettyLittleThing seen as fun
Figure 51: Brand personality – macro image, September 2019-February 2020
Boohoo viewed as responsive
Figure 52: Brand personality – micro image, September 2019-February 2020
Brand analysis
Joules and Seasalt highly recommended
Joules
Figure 53: User profile of Joules, February 2020
Seasalt
Figure 54: User profile of Seasalt, February 2020
Ted Baker seen as expensive and overrated
Figure 55: User profile of Ted Baker, February 2020
Boohoo and PrettyLittleThing attract more 25-34s
Boohoo
Figure 56: User profile of Boohoo, February 2020
PrettyLittleThing
Figure 57: User profile of PrettyLittleThing, February 2020
Primark is the favourite brand but seen as unethical
Figure 58: User profile of Primark, February 2020
JD Sports appeals to younger women 
Figure 59: User profile of JD Sports, February 2020
H&amp;M seen as good value 
Figure 60: User profile of H&M, September 2019
Next seen as a reliable brand
Figure 61: User profile of Next, September 2019
Pep&amp;Co perceived as basic
Figure 62: User profile of Pep&Co, February 2020
SPACE ALLOCATION
Methodology 
H&amp;M focuses on personalised stores
Figure 63: Men’s, women’s and childrenswear space allocation overview, October 2019
M&amp;S makes Per Una focus of its stores 
Figure 64: Men’s, women’s and childrenswear space allocation overview, October 2019
Primark remains the market leader 
Figure 65: Leading clothing retailers’ estimated share of the womenswear market, 2019
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Jeans remain popular, but trend for dresses grows
Big jump in young women shopping online
Value retailers most popular for fashion
Price stands out as the biggest priority
Importance of special occasions
Issues with sizing 
Growing interest in sustainability
Importance of versatile clothing 
WHAT THEY BUY
Big decline in outerwear purchases in three months to March 2020
Figure 66: What fashion items women have bought in the last 3 months, March 2019 and March 2020
Footwear purchases also fall
Figure 67: What fashion items women have bought in the last 3 months, March 2018-March 2020
Jeans remain popular, but trend for dresses grows
Rise in young women buying sportswear
Figure 68: What clothing items women have bought in the last 3 months, March 2020
Young women buy most items
Figure 69: Number of clothing items bought on last shopping trip, by gender, March 2020
Most women spent less than £50
Figure 70: Amount spent on clothing items on last shopping trip, by gender, March 2020
HOW THEY SHOP
Big jump in young women shopping online
Figure 71: How women bought clothing in the last 12 months, December 2019
In-store shopping on the decline
Figure 72: How women bought clothing in the last 12 months, by age, December 2019
WHERE THEY SHOP
Value retailers most popular for fashion
Figure 73: Where women bought clothing in the last 12 months, December 2019
Young women buy clothes from mix of lower and higher-end retailers
Figure 74: Women who bought clothing in the last 12 months from value retailers, mid-market high street fashion stores, higher-priced high street fashion store, luxury retailers and independents, by age, December 2019
Supermarkets popular among over-55s
Figure 75: Women who bought clothing in the last 12 months from supermarkets, online-only retailers, department stores and/or sports stores, by age, December 2019
Older women most brand-loyal
Figure 76: Repertoire of types of retailers where women have bought clothing in the last 12 months, December 2019
PURCHASE DRIVERS WHEN BUYING WOMENSWEAR
Price stands out as the biggest priority
Figure 77: Purchase drivers when buying womenswear from different types of clothing retailers, December 2019
Older women prioritise quality over price
Figure 78: Purchase drivers when buying womenswear from different types of clothing retailers, by generation, December 2019
Young Millennials most interested in ethics and environment
MOTIVATIONS FOR BUYING NEW CLOTHES
Importance of special occasions
Figure 79: What encourages women to buy new clothing for themselves, December 2019
Young women motivated by fashion trends
Figure 80: What encourages women to buy new clothing for themselves, by age, December 2019
ATTITUDES TOWARDS WOMENSWEAR
Issues with sizing 
Figure 81: Agreement or disagreement with attitudes towards buying womenswear, December 2019
Use of more diverse models
Figure 82: Agreement with attitudes towards buying womenswear, by age, December 2019
Importance of the shopping experience for Millennials
Figure 83: Agreement with attitudes towards buying womenswear, by generation, December 2019
INTEREST IN INNOVATIONS
Growing interest in sustainability
Figure 84: Interest in innovations when shopping for clothes, December 2019
Millennials drawn to the latest technology
Figure 85: Interest in innovations when shopping for clothes, by generation, December 2019
CLOTHES SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR
Importance of versatile clothing 
Figure 86: Shopping behaviour when buying womenswear, December 2019
CHAID ANALYSIS 
ABs prefer to spend more on high-quality clothes
Figure 87: Womenswear – CHAID – Tree output, January 2020
Methodology
Figure 88: Womenswear – CHAID – Table output, January 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology