Snack, Nutrition and Performance Bars - US - February 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Top takeaways
The issues
Bar sales continue to grow, but slowly
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at current prices, 2014-24
One third of bar eaters have increased bar consumption in the past year
Figure 2: Reasons for increasing bar consumption, November 2019
Bar buyers are flavor loyalists
Figure 3: Bar statements – formats, November 2019
The opportunities
Diverse functionality can help bars be the clear go-to
Encouraging consumers to start the day with bars could spark all-day engagement
Figure 4: Bar consumption occasion, November 2019
Sugar amount edges out price as a choice driver, can’t be ignored
Figure 5: Bar attributes of interest, November 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Bar sales continue to grow, but slowly
Performance bars and nutrition bars battle it out for number two spot
Snacking grows, snack categories stay afloat
Consumers look to whole foods and exercise as roads to health
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Bar sales continue to grow, but slowly
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at current prices, 2014-24
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Performance bars and nutrition bars battle it out for number two spot
Figure 8: Total US retail sales of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, by segment share, 2017 and 2019 (est)
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, by segment, 2014-24
In their words: Consumers prefer to manage weight loss by other dietary means
“Other” channels pull further ahead as bar sales leaders
Figure 10: Total US sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19 (est)
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Snacking grows, snack categories stay afloat
Figure 11: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
Figure 12: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2014-19
MARKET FACTORS 
Consumers look to whole foods and exercise as roads to health
In their words: Consumers associate whole foods with nutrition
Consumers are avoiding sugar
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
General Mills loses share, holds on to 22% of category sales
Continued strong growth of Quest leads to acquisition
Convenience plays a strong role in purchase intent
Two brands reverse the tide for the weight loss segment, for now
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF SNACK, NUTRITION AND PERFORMANCE BARS
General Mills loses share, still holds onto 22% of category sales
Quest’s continued strong growth leads to acquisition
PepsiCo MULO dollar sales decline by 6%
Bar brawl doesn’t hamper growth
Figure 13: Share of sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, by company, 52 weeks ending November 3, 2019
Figure 14: Sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, by company, 52 weeks ending November 4, 2018 and 52 weeks ending November 3, 2019
WHAT’S WORKING
Convenience plays a strong role in purchase intent
Two brands reverse the tide for the weight-loss segment, for now
Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of weight-loss bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Aiming at special diets can help short-term growth
Quest edges toward nutrition bar dominance
Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of nutrition bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Clif keeps climbing within the performance segment
Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of performance bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Weight-loss bars make strongest movement on sugar reduction
Figure 18: Sugar totals in bar launches, by segment, 2017-19*
Figure 19: Leading sweetener types in bar launches, by segment, 2017-19*
WHAT’S STRUGGLING
Activity in bar claims lacks luster
Figure 20: Leading claims in bar launches, by segment, 2017-19*
Protein totals declining in protein-focused segments and that’s OK
Figure 21: Protein totals in bar launches, by segment, 2017-19*
Weight-loss bars boost protein types
Figure 22: Leading protein types in bar launches, by segment, 2017-19*
General Mills loses snack bar share
Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of snack bars, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Chocolate dominated category could benefit from fruit introductions
Figure 24: Leading flavors in bar launches, by segment, 2017-19*
Poor perception of value stunts purchase intent
WHAT TO WATCH
More diverse functionality
Coffee bars offer a morning boost
Rooted in plants
Ancient grains make everything old new again
Mini bars boost convenience, shrink the sugar
Seasonality may help boost perception of freshness, encourage trial
Mainstream brands give kids bars of their very own
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Snack bars continue to lead bar consumption
One third of bar eaters have increased bar consumption in the past year
The majority of bar eaters do so as a snack, but competition is stiff
Bar buyers are flavor loyalists
Sugar amount edges out price as an attribute of interest
BAR CONSUMPTION
Snack bars continue to lead bar consumption
Figure 25: Bar consumption, November 2019
Half of bar eaters eat just one type of bar
Figure 26: Repertoire analysis - Consumption, November 2019
Men are drawn to performance bars, small formats appeal to women
Figure 27: Share of bar consumption, by gender, November 2019
Performance bars appeal to younger consumers
Figure 28: Share of bar consumption, by age, November 2019
One third of bar buyers keep a stash around
Figure 29: Bar statements – purchase habits, November 2019
BAR FORMATS
Bar buyers are flavor loyalists
Figure 30: Bar statements – formats, November 2019
Figure 31: Bar statements – new flavor, November 2019
Variety packs appeal to parents
Figure 32: Bar statements – formats, by parental status, November 2019
BAR PURCHASE LOCATION
Supermarkets leading purchase location
Figure 33: Bar purchase location, November 2019
Performance bar buyers are most likely to utilize online outlets
Figure 34: Bar purchase location, by bar type purchased, November 2019
Younger bar buyers can be reached at multiple outlets
Figure 35: Bar purchase location, by age, November 2019
BAR ATTRIBUTES OF IMPORTANCE
Sugar amount edges out price as a choice driver
Figure 36: Bar attributes of importance, November 2019
Figure 37: Bar attributes of importance, December 2018 and November 2019
Important attributes vary slightly by bar type and bar occasion
Figure 38: Bar attributes of importance, by bar type, November 2019
Figure 39: Bar attributes of importance, by consumption occasion, November 2019
In their words: Portability and convenience drive snack bar consumption
In their words: Snack bar eaters prioritize taste/flavor and ingredients
In their words: Snack bar consumers keep an eye on sugar, but won’t sacrifice taste
In their words: Nutrition bar eaters keep their eyes on sugar content
In their words: Performance bar buyers want natural ingredients
Women are generally more ingredient conscious
Figure 40: Bar attributes of importance, by gender, November 2019
CHANGE IN BAR CONSUMPTION
One third of bar eaters have increased bar consumption in the past year
Figure 41: Change in bar consumption, November 2019
Increased consumption due to increased health, decreased time
Figure 42: Reasons for increasing bar consumption, November 2019
Incorporating fruit equates to health in bar launches
Close to half of performance bar eaters have increased consumption
Figure 43: Change in bar consumption, by bar type, November 2019
Women are more likely than men to be reducing bar consumption
Figure 44: Change in bar consumption, by gender, November 2019
Reduced consumption not solely the fault of bars, but can be mitigated
Figure 45: Reasons for decreasing bar consumption, November 2019
BAR CONSUMPTION OCCASIONS
The majority of bar eaters do so as a snack, but competition grows
Figure 46: Bar consumption occasion - Nets, November 2019
Encouraging consumers to start the day with bars could spark attention
Figure 47: Bar consumption occasion, November 2019
Beyond snacking, women are targets for meals, men for exercise
Figure 48: Bar consumption occasion - Nets, by gender, November 2019
Exercise focus should be on the young consumers
Figure 49: Bar consumption occasion - Nets, by age, November 2019
All bar types used for snacking
Figure 50: Bar consumption occasion - Nets, by bar type, November 2019
Snack bars are the ultimate on-the-go option
Nutrition bar consumers do so for convenient energy and satiety
Performance bar eaters look for energy and nutrition
INCENTIVIZING BAR TRIAL
Snack bar trial strongly driven by flavor
Increased claims activity and sampling can encourage nutrition bar trial
Snack bar marketing will do well to focus on flavor-related ingredients
Figure 51: Qualitative word clouds - Ingredients of interest, by bar type, January 2020
Figure 52: Qualitative word clouds - Flavors of interest, by bar type, January 2020
Figure 53: Qualitative word cloud - Health benefits of interest, by bar type, January 2020
FOOD AND DRINK SHOPPER SEGMENTATION
Figure 54: Food/drink shopper segmentation, February 2019
Quality Seekers (34%)
Figure 55: Profile of Quality Seekers, February 2019
Adventure Eaters (34%)
Figure 56: Profile of Adventure Eaters, February 2019
Time Savers (17%)
Figure 57: Profile of Time Savers, February 2019
Value Chasers (15%)
Figure 58: Profile of Value Chasers, February 2019
Implications of food/drink consumer segments on snack, nutrition and performance bars
Adventure Eaters are the most likely bar buyers
Figure 59: Bar purchase, by food and drink shopper segmentation, November 2019
Increased snacking among Quality Seekers means health-focused brands can benefit
Figure 60: Reasons for increasing bar consumption, by food and drink shopper segmentation, November 2019
Morning snack occasions presents an opportunity for appealing to Time Savers
Figure 61: Bar consumption occasion - snacking, by food and drink shopper segmentation, November 2019
Multi-packs appeal to Value Chasers
Figure 62: Bar statements – formats, by food and drink shopper segmentation, November 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack bars, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of performance bars, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of performance bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutrition bars, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutrition bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutrition bars, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of weight-loss bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
APPENDIX – RETAIL CHANNELS  
Figure 72: US supermarket of snack, nutrition and performance bars, at current prices, 2014-19 (est)
Figure 73: US drug store sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, at current prices, 2014-19 (est)
Figure 74: US convenience store sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars, at current prices, 2014-19 (est)
Figure 75: US sales of snack, nutrition and performance bars through other channels, at current prices, 2014-19 (est)
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of snack, nutrition, and performance bars, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019