Milk and Milk Alternatives - Ireland - January 2020

OVERVIEW
What You Need to Know
Issues covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by volume, NI and RoI, 2015-19
Forecast
Figure 2: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by value, NI and RoI, 2015-25
Market factors
Farmgate milk prices falling in 2019
Milk price rises edge up in 2019 but remain below 2018 levels
‘No-deal’ Brexit could have cost implications for Irish milk producers
Own-label milks favoured by Irish consumers
Companies, brands and innovations
The consumer
Irish consumers continue to prefer animal milk
Figure 3: Types of dairy and non-dairy milk that consumers have used or served in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
Chilled milk preferred by Irish consumers
Figure 4: Usage of chilled and non-chilled milk in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
NI and RoI consumers have different milk preferences
Figure 5: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
NI consumers willing to spend £1-1.49 on milk; RoI consumers prepared to pay €2+
Figure 6: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, NI, November 2019
Figure 7: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, RoI, November 2019
Irish consumers encouraging children to drink more milk and milk alternatives
Figure 8: Agreement with statements related to health and milk/milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
Consumers trust retailers to ensure animal welfare standards
Figure 9: Attitudes towards sustainability in milk, NI and RoI, November 2019
Supporting local milk producers important to Irish consumers
Figure 10: Attitudes towards supporting local milk producers, NI and RoI, November 2019
Irish consumers think non-dairy milks are heavily processed
Figure 11: Attitudes towards milk and milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
What we think
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Milk sales will continue to grow in 2019
2019 see farmgate milk decline
Price of milk rising slower in 2019
Brexit an issue for Irish milk producers
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
2019 to see growth in milk sales
Figure 12: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by value, IoI, NI, and RoI, 2015-25
Milk volume sales flat in 2019
Figure 13: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by volume, IoI, NI, and RoI, 2015-19
Irish consumers favouring whole milk
Figure 14: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by volume, by type of milk, RoI, 2015-19
Non-dairy milks remain popular
Figure 15: Estimated retail sales of non-dairy milk, by value, IoI, NI, and RoI, 2015-25
MARKET DRIVERS
Milk prices declining across the island of Ireland
Figure 16: Average yearly milk prices, pence per litre, NI, 2014-19
Figure 17: Average yearly milk prices, cents per litre, RoI, 2014-19
Brexit to impact Irish milk sector
Milk price rises lower in 2019
Figure 18: Food price inflation vs milk prices, UK (including NI), January 2018-October 2019
Figure 19: Food price inflation vs milk prices, RoI, January 2018-October 2019
Animal welfare high on the agenda for Irish consumers
Figure 20: Top five environmental and ethical issues most important to consumers, NI and RoI, November 2018
Own-label milk popular among consumers
Figure 21: Consumers’ preferences for branded vs own-label groceries, NI and RoI, September 2019
COMPANIES AND INNOVATIONS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Strong growth in milk-alternative NPD
Sustainability main claims made by milk and milk-alternative producers
Milk and milk-alternative category driven by own-label NPD
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Strong NPD levels in the UK and Irish milk category
Figure 22: Milk and milk-alternative products launched, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
Dairy-alternative NPD continues to grow
Figure 23: New dairy and non-dairy milk product launches, by sub-category, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
Own-label driving milk and milk-alternative NPD
Figure 24: Branded versus own-label milk and milk-alternative product launches, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
Ethical claims dominate milk and non-dairy NPD
Figure 25: New milk and milk-alternative products launched, by top 10 claims, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
Rebel Kitchen supporting female farmers
COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Alpro
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Arla Foods UK
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Arrabawn
Key facts
Product portfolio
Aurivo
Key facts
Product portfolio
Recent developments
Dale Farm
Key facts
Product portfolio
Recent developments
Draynes Farms
Key facts
Product portfolio
Glanbia
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Recent developments
Kerry Group
Key facts
Product portfolio
Recent developments
Lakeland Dairies Group
Key facts
Product portfolio
Recent developments
Ornua
Key facts
Product portfolio
Brand NPD
Strathroy Dairy
Key facts
Product portfolio
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Standard cow’s milk remains popular among Irish consumers
Chilled milk favoured by Irish consumers
Strong difference in milk preferences in NI and RoI
Provenance remains important to Irish consumers
Irish consumers think milk alternatives are heavily processed
MILK AND NON-DAIRY SUBSTITUTES USED
Irish consumers continue to prefer standard cow’s milk
Figure 26: Types of dairy and non-dairy milk that consumers have used or served in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
Standard cow’s milk remains popular
Figure 27: Consumers who have used or served standard cow’s milk in the last three months, by gender and age, NI and RoI, November 2019
Milk alternatives popular among ABC1s
Figure 28: Types of milk alternatives that consumers have used or served in the last three months, by social class, NI, November 2019
Figure 29: Types of milk alternatives that consumers have used or served in the last three months, by social class, RoI, November 2019
USAGE OF CHILLED AND NON-CHILLED MILK
Chilled milk favoured by Irish consumers
Figure 30: Usage of chilled and non-chilled milk in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
UHT milk appeals to full-time workers
Figure 31: Consumers who have used non-chilled milk (eg UHT) in the last three months, by work status, NI and RoI, November 2019
Chilled milk broadly popular in NI, preferred by affluent consumers in RoI
Figure 32: Consumers who have used chilled milk in the last three months, by household income, NI, November 2019
Figure 33: Consumers who have used chilled milk in the last three months, by household income, RoI, November 2019
TYPE OF MILK USED
Semi-skimmed popular in NI, whole milk in RoI
Figure 34: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
Milk popular among affluent consumers
Figure 35: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, by social class, NI, November 2019
Figure 36: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, by social class, RoI, November 2019
Irish men the main users of whole milk
Figure 37: Consumers who have used whole milk in the last three months, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2019
HOW MUCH CONSUMERS ARE PREPARED TO SPEND ON MILK
Consumers prepared to pay €2+ for milk in RoI
Figure 38: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, RoI, November 2019
Working consumers willing to spend over €2 for two litres of standard milk
Figure 39: Consumers who are willing to spend €2 or more for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, by work status, RoI, November 2019
£1-1.49 the amount NI consumers are prepared to spend on milk
Figure 40: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, NI, November 2019
NI women willing to spend between £1 and £1.49 for milk
Figure 41: Consumers who are willing to spend between £1 and £1.49 for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, by gender, NI, November 2019
Figure 42: Consumers’ preferences for branded vs own-label dairy (eg milk), by gender, NI, September 2019
HEALTH PERCEPTIONS OF MILK AND MILK ALTERNATIVES
Milk seen as important source of vitamins
Figure 43: Agreement with statements related to health and milk/milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
Parents most likely see nutritional benefits of milk
Figure 44: Agreement with the statement ‘I think milk is an important source of vitamins in my diet’, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, November 2019
SUSTAINABILITY IN MILK
Retailers expected to adhere to animal welfare standards in milk
Figure 45: Attitudes towards sustainability in milk, NI and RoI, November 2019
Young consumers switching to milk alternatives for environmental reasons
Figure 46: Agreement with the statement ‘Environmental reasons would encourage me to switch from standard milk to milk alternatives’, by age, NI and RoI, November 2019
SUPPORTING LOCAL MILK PRODUCERS
Local sourced milk preferred by Irish consumers
Figure 47: Attitudes towards supporting local milk producers, NI and RoI, November 2019
ABC1 consumers prefer milk sourced locally
Figure 48: Agreement with statements relating to supporting local milk producers, by social class, NI, November 2019
Figure 49: Agreement with statements relating to supporting local milk producers, by social class, RoI, November 2019
ATTITUDES TOWARDS MILK AND MILK ALTERNATIVES
Irish consumers interested in doorstep milk delivery
Figure 50: Attitudes towards milk and milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
Doorstep milk delivery service appeals to rural consumers
Figure 51: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in subscribing to doorstep milk delivery’, by location, NI, November 2019
Figure 52: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in subscribing to doorstep milk delivery’, by location, RoI, November 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Data sources
Market size rationale
Generational cohort definitions
Abbreviations