UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report 2023
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Description
Stay ahead of the curve in the UK bakery market with Mintel’s UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report. Our full report is packed with consumer-led market intelligence, latest UK cake industry trends, and consumer behaviours affecting your industry. Get information about the UK cake market size, segmentation and forecasted growth to help you align your strategy with what your audience demands.
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Our Comprehensive Market Research Report Delivers Key Insights On:
- Performance of the market and the challenges and opportunities arising from the impact of rising inflation on households.
- Frequency of eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods in the three months to February 2023, and where cakes are purchased.
- Reasons for buying these treats and the implications of these for product development and brand marketing.
- Attributes influencing the choice of one cake, cake bar or sweet baked good over another, including type of brand, new flavour twists and healthier attributes.
- New launch activity in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, including premium and seasonal launches, as well as non-HFSS and other healthier products.
Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods – UK Market Overview
Even amidst the cost-of-living crisis and HFSS product location restrictions, the UK cake, cake bars and sweet baked goods market has seen double-digit value sales growth in 2022.
- UK cake market size: The retail value sales of cakes and cake bars increased by 10.4% in 2022.
- UK sweet baked goods market size: The retail value sales of sweet baked goods increased by 13.9% in 2022.
Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods – Market Trends
- UK cake market consumer behaviour: The popularity of chocolate brands has continued in the cake industry, with 35% of consumers choosing one cake over another based on it being chocolate branded. Highlighting an opportunity for chocolate brands to explore new cake ranges.
- Sweet baked goods market opportunities: 47% of consumers who bought cakes or sweet baked goods bought them for a dessert after lunch or dinner. For brands, emphasising the dessert qualities of cakes could help them maximise sales.
- Cake market challenges: As of October 2022, fewer cakes and sweet baked goods are allowed in high visibility locations due to HFSS restrictions. A good way for brands to tackle this challenge is through promotional activity, which has already prompted 66% of consumers to buy cakes on impulse in the last three months.
To learn more about how to connect with your audience, purchase our full UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report. If you like to learn more about the global cake industry, take a look at The Future of Bread, Bakery and Cakes Market Report, or explore our extensive food industry market research.
Products and Brands Covered in this Report
Products: Cakes, Cake slices, Mini Rolls, Cupcakes, Cake bars, Flapjacks, Swiss rolls, Tray bakes, Crumpets, Croissants, Brioche loaves and rolls, Pains au chocolat and raisins, American muffins, Scones, Hot cross buns/loaves, Malt and fruit loaves, Pancakes, Teacakes, Doughnuts, English muffins, Waffles, Fruit buns, Crêpes, Potato cakes/scones, Irish bread, Iced buns, Farls, Pikelets.
Brands: Mr Kipling (Premier Foods), Cadbury (Mondelez), McVitie’s (Pladis), Soreen (Samworths), Mars, Thorntons (Ferrero), Bonne Maman (Andros Foods), Balconi, Real Lancashire, Warburtons, Brioche Pasquier, Sheldons (GH Sheldon), St Pierre (St Pierre Groupe), 7 Days (Chipita), Genius (Genius Foods), La Boulangere.
Expert Analysis from a Specialist in the Food Industry
This report, written by Richard Caines, a leading analyst in the food and drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the UK bakery market and add expert context to the numbers.
There being such a wide array of reasons for people to buy cakes and sweet baked goods will continue to support sales. The category faces intense competition though from other treats, making NPD important. New flavour twists and more chocolate-branded or café/bakery branded products will appeal as ways to add more excitement and anticipation. Premium mini and bite-sized cakes should do well, offering consumers affordable luxuries during tough times.
Richard Caines
Principal Analyst, UK Food & Drink Research
Table of Contents
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Overview
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- Key issues covered in this Report
- Products covered in this Report
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Executive Summary
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- The five-year outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
- Figure 1: Outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2023-27
- The market
- Soaring prices drive double-digit value sales growth in 2022
- Higher prices will remain the main driver of growth
- Figure 2: Market size and forecast for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2017-27
- Cakes and morning goods fall within the scope of HFSS regulations
- Higher ingredient and energy costs driving inflation in cakes
- Companies and brands
- Big increase in own-label cake sales
- Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
- Warburtons leads in sweet baked goods
- A fifth of new launches have a premium positioning
- Healthier launches still a rarity in cakes
- The consumer
- Few shun cakes but they are a rare treat for most
- Figure 4: Frequency of use of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2023
- Extend more favourite brands into cakes and sweet bakes
- Figure 5: Attributes influencing product choice in cakes, cakes bars and sweet baked goods, 2023
- Make the most of cakes’ big role as a dessert
- Figure 6: Reasons for buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2023
- Drawing shoppers to the cakes aisle has become more important
- Figure 7: Behaviours related to cakes and sweet baked goods, 2023
- ‘Freshly baked’ proposition appeals widely
- Figure 8: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, 2023
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Issues and Insights
- Premium cakes warrant continued investment
- ‘Affordable luxury’ images can target a range of price points…
- …and occasions
- Elevating ‘freshly baked’ messages will boost sales
- Countdowns can elevate the freshly-baked experience
- Bakery tie-ups and ISBs in cakes aisle hold potential
- Extend more favourite brands into cakes and sweet bakes
- More chocolate-branded products warranted
- Room for more limited editions and a rotating product offer
- Encourage celebrating smaller things with cakes/sweet baked goods
- Potential for unlocking new usage occasions
- Chocolate brands, flavour twists and local tie-ups can help operators target celebrations
- Premium cakes warrant continued investment
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Market Size and Performance
- Soaring prices drive double-digit value sales growth in 2022
- Figure 9: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2017-22
- Soaring prices drive double-digit value sales growth in 2022
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Market Forecast
- The five-year outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
- Figure 10: Outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2023-27
- Higher prices will be the main driver of growth
- Figure 11: Market size and forecast for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2017-27
- Affordable and permissible treating will support sales
- Inflation will be the main driver of growth
- HFSS restrictions will curb sales
- Learnings from the last income squeeze
- Figure 12: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-15
- Forecast methodology
- The five-year outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
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Market Segmentation
- Strong 2022 growth for small and large cakes
- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2019-22
- Sales of sweet baked goods grow strongly
- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of prepacked sweet baked goods, by type, 2019-22
- Strong 2022 growth for small and large cakes
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Market Drivers
- Government measures on HFSS food and drink slow to roll out
- HFSS food and drink store location restrictions came into place in October 2022
- Cakes and morning goods fall within the scope of regulations
- New rules on the advertising of HFSS food and drink delayed
- Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
- Fall in size of core younger user group projected
- Figure 15: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-26
- Inflation will continue to eat into consumer spending power over the course of 2023
- Consumer Prices Index rises to 10%
- Higher ingredient and energy costs driving inflation in cakes
- Figure 16: Year-on-year consumer price inflation for all food and other bakery products, 2021-23
- Further interest rates increases will hit mortgage-holders
- High inflation and rising interest rates will compound the impact of the slowing recovery
- Consumer spending power will be curbed
- Consumers’ financial wellbeing has fallen from the highs of 2021…
- Figure 17: Household financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
- …and most people are feeling the effects of price rises
- Home baking threat to shop-bought cakes lessens
- Government measures on HFSS food and drink slow to roll out
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Market Share
- Big increase in own-label cake sales
- Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
- Warburtons leads in sweet baked goods
- Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail sweet baked goods, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
- Big increase in own-label cake sales
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Launch Activity and Innovation
- Premium and indulgence central to cakes NPD
- A fifth of new launches have a premium positioning
- Figure 20: Proportion of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods that are positioned as premium, 2018-23
- Big premium + seasonal element
- Figure 21: New flavour launches for hot cross buns and mince pies, 2022/23
- Sainsbury’s rolls out more seasonal editions
- Figure 22: Premium seasonal launches by Sainsbury’s in cakes, pastries and sweet goods, 2022/23
- More hybrid products make an appearance
- Figure 23: Launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods combining a variety of different texture elements, 2022/23
- Mr Kipling extends Signature Collection
- Figure 24: Launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods under Mr Kipling Signature Collection , 2022
- Limited edition launches a feature of new flavour activity
- Figure 25: Limited edition flavour launches for Thorntons Bites, 2022/23
- More chocolate branded cakes launched
- Figure 26: Dairy Milk Caramel Layer Cake and Galaxy Chocolate brownie, 2022
- Licensed brands target different audiences
- Figure 27: Licensed branded launches by Finsbury for Gordon’s and Baileys in cakes, pastries and sweet goods, 2022/23
- Healthier launches still a rarity in cakes
- Mr Kipling Deliciously Good non-HFSS range extended
- Figure 28: Extensions to the Mr Kipling Deliciously Good non-HFSS range, 2022 and 2023
- Finsbury launches HFSS-compliant range, Fitbakes adds birthday variant
- Figure 29: Launch of Baked HFSS-compliant brand by Finsbury Food Group, 2022
- Few other launches have low/reduced sugar or calorie claims
- Figure 30: Proportion of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods making low/reduced sugar and calorie, and high/added fibre claims, 2018-23
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- Figure 31: Launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods making healthier claims, 2022
- Figure 32: Launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods making high in fibre claims, 2022
- Choice of vegan/plant-based options grows
- Figure 33: Proportion of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods making vegan/no animal ingredients claims, 2017-21
- Figure 34: Vegan and plant-based launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods, 2022
- Premium and indulgence central to cakes NPD
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Advertising and Marketing Activity
- Dip in 2022 advertising spend for cakes
- Figure 35: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, by media type, 2019-23
- Premier Foods the top advertiser
- Figure 36: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, by advertiser, 2019-23
- Mr Kipling reminds people that the little things matter
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
- Dip in 2022 advertising spend for cakes
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Usage of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
- Few people shun cakes and bakes…
- Figure 37: Eating of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods in the last 3 months, 2019-23
- …but they are a rare treat for most…
- Figure 38: Weekly use of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2019-23
- …and slices of whole cakes in particular
- Figure 39: Frequency of use of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2023
- Few people shun cakes and bakes…
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Where Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods Bought
- Six in 10 bought from in-store bakery
- Figure 40: Where cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods were bought in the last 3 months, 2023
- Six in 10 bought from in-store bakery
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Product Attributes Influencing Choice
- Extend more favourite brands into cakes and sweet bakes
- More chocolate-branded products warranted
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- Figure 41: Attributes influencing product choice in cakes, cakes bars and sweet baked goods, 2023
- Extending café or bakery brands into retail holds further potential…
- …with few examples thus far
- Figure 42: Launches of café/bakery branded products into retail, 2020 and 2022
- Healthier variants need to be a small part of the offer
- Extend more favourite brands into cakes and sweet bakes
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Reasons for Buying
- Make the most of cakes’ big role as a dessert
- Figure 43: Reasons for buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2023
- Meal deals hold untapped potential
- Scope for mini formats to target dessert occasion
- Mix traditional with modern when pairing with hot drinks
- Encourage celebrating smaller things with cakes/sweet baked goods
- Chocolate brands, flavour twists and local tie-ups can help operators target celebrations
- Make the most of cakes’ big role as a dessert
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Behaviours Related to Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods
- Drawing shoppers to the cakes aisle has become more important
- Figure 44: Behaviours related to cakes and sweet baked goods, 2023
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- Figure 45: Examples of Cadbury branded bay in chocolate confectionery and cake promotion bay in cakes aisle using point-of-sale material to attract attention of shoppers passing the aisle, February 2023
- Decorating cake(s) yourself has strong appeal
- Link-ups with toppings offer scope for cakes to tap into DIY interest
- Encouraging cake-decorating can win over bakers and inject newness
- Drawing shoppers to the cakes aisle has become more important
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Attitudes towards Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods
- ‘Freshly baked’ proposition appeals widely
- Countdowns can elevate the freshly-baked experience
- Bakery tie-ups and ISBs in cakes aisle hold potential
- Figure 46: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, 2023
- Premium cakes warrant continued investment
- ‘Affordable luxury’ images can target a range of price points…
- …and occasions
- ‘Freshly baked’ proposition appeals widely
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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Appendix – Forecast Methodology
- Market forecast and prediction intervals
- Figure 47: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022-27
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Forecast methodology
- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 48: UK retail volume sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2020-22
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 49: Leading manufacturer’s sales in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
- Figure 50: Leading manufacturer’s sales in the UK retail sweet baked goods market, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 51: Share of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods, by branded vs. private label, 2018-23
- Figure 52: Share of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods, by claim, 2018-23
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About the report
This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.
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