UK Adult Social Care Market Report 2020
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Description
Everything you need to make the right decisions
Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Adult Social Care: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – UK market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.
Mintel has the answers you’re looking for
What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?
Covered in this report
The home care sector is under financial strain as some home care agencies have seen a drop in the number of people they care for due to fears of catching COVID-19, and many have struggled to fund the extra PPE needed to carry out their visits. This has also led to concerns over the viability of the residential care sector that has recorded a drop in occupancy rates. This has not solely occurred due to the tragic loss of life, but also due to some families removing their relatives from care, or not entering them into care in the first place, over fears of infection.
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Expert analysis from a specialist in the field
Written by Lewis Cone, a leading analyst in the B2B sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.
Despite the recent tragedies associated with the pandemic, market drivers remain strong as the imbalance between supply and demand for social care services will only steepen in the forthcoming years. The pandemic will result in some long-term changes in how care is delivered and has highlighted the need for new and improved technologies to better support care systems 
Lewis Cone
Senior B2B Analyst
Table of Contents
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Overview
- Key issues covered in this Report
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
- Products covered in this Report
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Executive Summary
- Impact of COVID-19 on adult social care
- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on adult social care, short, medium, and long-term, 19 August 2020
- The market
- The impact of the pandemic will see market spend rise
- Figure 2: UK adult social care forecast, by type of care, 2020/21-2024/25, (£ million)
- Stronger growth in NHS and private spend offsets stagnant informal care growth
- Figure 3: Segmentation of the UK domiciliary care market, by type of purchaser, 2015/16 and 2019/20, (£ million)
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- Figure 4: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of purchaser, 2016 and 2020, (£ million)
- Old age support ratio continues to decline despite increases to state pension age
- Figure 5: Old Age Support Ratio, 2020-45, (ratio)
- The consumer
- Personal savings and state support expected to fund long-term care
- Figure 6: Long-Term Care Payment Method, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Rising fees and government spending cuts are top concerns regarding future provision
- Figure 7: Future social care provision concerns, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Information on cost structures would most reassure people considering a care home
- Figure 8: Care home reassurances, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Closer collaboration between health and social care systems wanted by the majority
- Figure 9: Adult social care issues, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Impact of COVID-19 on adult social care
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COVID-19 and Adult Social Care
- The market
- PPE costs add to already steep financial pressures in the industry…
- … which could lead to a higher level of insolvencies over the short-term
- Government measures
- The consumer
- A third of people less likely to seek residential care due to COVID-19
- Only half of people aged over 45 expect the pandemic to act as a catalyst for social care reform
- Companies and brands
- Free web app launched to track care home inventories
- Leading care home providers launch recruitment drive
- Access Group launches platform to track spread of virus
- Consultus Care and Nursing roll out new COVID-19 testing scheme
- The future
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Issues and Insights
- Recruitment challenges heightened by COVID-19 demands
- Care home and home care providers face collapse while more care requests are being turned down
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The Market – Key Takeaways
- The impact of the pandemic will see market spend rise
- Stronger growth in NHS and private spend offsets stagnant informal care growth
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Domiciliary Care
- Market size
- Market value continues to rise, but the number of long-term care users declines
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- Figure 10: UK market for domiciliary care, 2015/16-2019/20, (£ million)
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- Figure 11: UK commercial market for domiciliary care, 2015/16-2019/20, (£ million)
- Market segmentation
- Stronger growth in NHS and private spend offsets stagnant informal care growth
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- Figure 12: Segmentation of the UK domiciliary care market, by type of purchaser, 2015/16-2019/20, (£ million)
- Local authority expenditure
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- Figure 13: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on domiciliary care for older people (65+) in the UK, by type, 2014/15-2018/19, (£ million)
- Figure 14: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on domiciliary care for adults aged 18-64 in the UK, by client type, 2014/15-2018/19, (£ million)
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- Figure 15: Segmentation of UK local authority expenditure on domiciliary care, all adults, by client type, 2014/15 and 2018/19, (%)
- Regional LA expenditure
- Figure 16: Local authority expenditure, all adults, by region, 2013/14-2017/18, (£ million)
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- Figure 17: Local authority expenditure, older people (65+), by region, 2014/15-2018/19, (£ million)
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- Figure 18: Local authority expenditure, adults (18-64), by region, 2014/15-2018/19, (£ million)
- NHS expenditure
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- Figure 19: Segmentation of NHS expenditure on social care community services, by country, 2015/16-2019/20, (£ million)
- Private expenditure
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- Figure 20: Segmentation of private expenditure on domiciliary care in the UK, by type, 2015/16-2019/20, (£ million)
- Informal care
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- Figure 21: Informal carers by relationship to person receiving care in England, 2014/15-2018/19, (% of informal carers)
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- Figure 22: The UK market for informal domiciliary care, 2015/16 – 2019/20, (£ billion and hours)
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Residential Care
- Market size
- Market expenditure rises by 2% in 2019/20, but operator viability remains a concern
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- Figure 23: UK residential care market, by value, 2015/16-2019/20, (£ million)
- Rate of care home closures slows…
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- Figure 24: UK residential care market, by number of registered care homes, 2016-20, (units)
- … while the number of places rise for the first time in a decade
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- Figure 25: UK residential care market, by number of registered places, 2016-20, (000)
- Average number of places per home reaches all-time high
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- Figure 26: Average number of places, revenue per care home and revenue per place, UK, 2015-19, (average number of places, revenue in £000)
- Market segmentation
- Accommodation type
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- Figure 27: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of accommodation, 2016-20, (number of homes, sheltered housing in 000 units)
- Care purchaser
- Figure 28: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of purchaser, 2016-20, (£ million)
- Provider type
- Figure 29: Segmentation of the UK residential care market, by type of provider, 2016-20, (£ million)
- Local authority expenditure
- Figure 30: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by provider and client type, 2016-20, (£ million)
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- Figure 31: Segmentation of local authority-commissioned residential and nursing care expenditure, by provider and service type, 2016-20, (£ million)
- Older people (65+) expenditure
- Figure 32: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for older people (65+), by service type, 2016-20, (£ million)
- Adults aged 18-64 expenditure
- Figure 33: Segmentation of local authority expenditure on residential care services for adults aged 18-64, by service type, 2016-20, (£ million)
- NHS care expenditure
- Figure 34: Segmentation of NHS expenditure on residential and nursing care, by provider type, 2015-19, (£ million)
- Private care purchasers
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- Figure 35: Private expenditure on residential and nursing care, 2016-20, (£ million and % market share)
- Sheltered housing
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- Figure 36: The development of sheltered housing in the UK, 2016-20, (000 units and % change)
- Extra care housing
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Adult Social Care Market Forecast
- Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
- Figure 37: Expected impact of COVID-19 on Adult Social Care, short, medium, and long-term, 19 August 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Figure 38: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-24, (in % annual change, % rate, and £ million) – (prepared on 19 August 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 39: Industry performance following the last recession, 2009/10-2014/15, (£ million)
- The impact of the pandemic on the sector will see market spend rise…
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- Figure 40: Forecast UK adult social care market value, 2020/21-2024/25, (£ million at 2020 prices)
- … although spending pledges by the government will be insufficient to close the funding gap
- Retirement housing developments could help ease burden on councils
- Technology will play a vital role in improving independent living
- Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
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Market Trends
- Old age support ratio expected to decline despite increases to state pension age
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- Figure 41: UK population projections, by age group, 2020-45, (000 people)
- Dependency ratio continues to climb
- Minimum price for home care rises to record high with COVID-19 likely to add to costs
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- Figure 42: Estimated minimum price for home care, April 2020-March 2021, (£)
- Job vacancies fall despite wages remaining relatively low
- Home care accounts for the majority of social care’s delays in transfer of care from NHS hospitals
- Care home occupancy rates fell in 2019
- Care quality standards rise marginally
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Market Drivers
- Almost one in seven elderly people have unmet care needs
- Tool launched that identifies the best sites for care homes
- ‘Log my Care’ launches tool to improve care plan creation and management
- Social care jobs at risk post-Brexit if current points-based system is rolled out
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Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
- Hallmark Care Homes launch its own construction company
- Home care companies create new jobs in response to pandemic
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Industry Structure
- Industry development
- Domiciliary Care
- Digital commissioning technology is starting to replace spot purchasing in the commissioning process
- Residential Care
- New government-backed care home complaints guidance launched
- M&As and other industry movements
- Domiciliary Care
- Residential Care
- Market share
- Domiciliary Care
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- Figure 43: Independent sector domiciliary care providers’ market share, 2020, (% of total independent sector market)
- Residential Care
- Changes in the structure of the industry
- Figure 44: Analysis of changes in the structure of the ‘other human health activities’ industry, 2015-19, (number of local units and businesses)
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- Figure 45: Analysis of changes in the structure of the ‘social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled’ industry, 2015-19, (number of local units and businesses)
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- Figure 46: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the ‘residential nursing care activities’ industry, 2015-19, (number of local units and businesses)
- Figure 47: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the ‘residential care activities for the elderly and disabled’ industry, 2015-19, (number of local units and businesses)
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- Figure 48: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the hospital activities – medical nursing home activities industry, 2015-19, (number of outlets and businesses)
- Structure by employment
- Figure 49: Analysis of the employment structure of the ‘other human health activities’ industry, 2018 and 2019, (number of local units and local unit employment size)
- Figure 50: Analysis of the employment structure of the ‘social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled’ industry, 2018 and 2019, (number of local units and local unit employment size)
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- Figure 51: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2018 and 2019, (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Figure 52: Analysis of the employment structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled industry, 2018 and 2019, (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
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- Figure 53: Analysis of the employment structure of the hospital activities – medical nursing home activities industry, 2018 and 2019, (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Structure by turnover
- Figure 54: Analysis of the financial structure of the ‘other human health activities’ industry, 2018 and 2019, (£000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 55: Analysis of the financial structure of the ‘social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled’ industry, 2018 and 2019, (£000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 56: Analysis of the financial structure of the residential nursing care activities industry, 2018 and 2019, (£000 and % of total turnover)
- Figure 57: Analysis of the financial structure of the residential care activities for the elderly and disabled industry, 2018 and 2019, (£000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 58: Analysis of the financial structure of the hospital activities – medical nursing home activities industry, 2018 and 2019, (£000 and % of total turnover)
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Competitive Strategies
- Hallmark Care Homes launch its own construction company
- Home care companies create new jobs in response to pandemic
- Caremark launches ‘revolutionary’ care service
- Hampshire County Council first to trial ‘Cobots’ in the sector
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Company Profiles
- Domiciliary Care
- City & County Healthcare Group
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- Figure 59: Financial analysis of City & County Healthcare group, 2015-19, (£ million)
- Interserve Healthcare
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- Figure 60: Financial analysis of Interserve Healthcare, 2014-18, (£000)
- Lifeways Community Care
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- Figure 61: Financial analysis of Lifeways Community Care, 2014*-18, (£000)
- MiHomecare
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- Figure 62: Financial analysis of MiHomecare, 2015-19, (£000)
- Sevacare
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- Figure 63: Financial analysis of Sevacare, 2014-18, (£ million)
- Residential Care
- Abbeyfield (formerly known as The Abbeyfield Society)
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- Figure 64: Financial analysis of Abbeyfield, 2015-19, (£ million)
- Barchester Healthcare
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- Figure 65: Financial analysis of Barchester Healthcare, 2014-18, (£000)
- Hallmark Care Homes
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- Figure 66: Financial analysis of Hallmark Care Home Group, 2015-19, (£ million)
- HC-One
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- Figure 67: Financial analysis of HC-One, 2015-19, (£ million)
- Housing 21 (formerly Housing & Care 21)
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- Figure 68: Financial analysis of Housing 21, 2016-20, (£ million)
- Sanctuary Care
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- Figure 69: Financial analysis of Sanctuary Care, 2015-19, (£ million)
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The Consumer – Key Takeaways
- Personal savings and state support expected to fund long-term care
- Rising fees and government spending cuts are top concerns regarding future provision
- Information on cost structures would most reassure people considering a care home
- Closer collaboration between health and social care systems wanted by the majority
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The Consumer – Care Status
- 7% of people have, or have had, a carer help them in their home
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- Figure 70: Home care status, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- 16% have a family member who requires social care
- Figure 71: Family care status, May 2020, (% of respondents)
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The Consumer – Care Payment
- Personal savings and state support expected to fund long-term care
- Figure 72: Long-term care payment method, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Personal savings and state support expected to fund long-term care
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The Consumer – Future Provision Concerns
- Rising fees and government spending cuts are top concerns regarding future provision
- Figure 73: Future social care provision concerns, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Rising fees and government spending cuts are top concerns regarding future provision
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The Consumer – Care Home Reassurances
- Information on cost structures would most reassure people when considering a care home in the future
- Figure 74: Care home reassurances, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Information on cost structures would most reassure people when considering a care home in the future
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The Consumer – Domiciliary Care Information Sources
- Reviews from clients and family most useful source
- Figure 75: Domiciliary care information sources, by any rank, May 2020, (% of respondents)
- Reviews from clients and family most useful source
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The Consumer – Adult Social Care Issues
- Closer collaboration between health and social care systems wanted by the majority
- Figure 76: Adult social care issues, may 2020, (% of respondents)
- Closer collaboration between health and social care systems wanted by the majority
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
- Abbreviations
- Methodology
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Further Sources and Contacts
- Trade associations
- Age UK
- Care England
- Carers UK
- National Care Association
- National Care Forum
- United Kingdom Home Care Association (UKHCA)
- Trade magazines
- Care Home Professional
- Care Management Matters
- Care Talk
- Caring Times
- Caring UK
- Community Care
- Trade events
- Care England 2021
- Care Roadshow London 2021
- Community Care Live 2020
- Dementia, Care & Nursing Home Expo 2020
- Health + Care 2021
- Primary Care and Public Health 2021
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