Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- The issues
- Americans drink at home most often
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- Figure 1: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net, July 2019
- Gen Zers drink less than Millennials or Gen Xers
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- Figure 2: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net, by generation, July 2019
- The opportunities
- Diners are drinking AFH more often
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- Figure 3: Changes in AFH drinking, July 2019 and January 2018
- Social occasions are top AFH drinking occasions
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- Figure 4: On-premise alcohol occasions – Net: any drink, July 2019
- One-fifth of diners always try a new drink
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- Figure 5: Adventurous drinker segmentation, July 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- AH still leads for alcohol consumption, but AFH sales are growing faster
- Beer continues to dominate, while spirit sales surpass wine sales
- Hard seltzers appeal to health-conscious consumers
Market Size and Forecast
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- Projected YOY on-premise sales growth
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- On-premise alcohol sales grow faster than off-premise
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- Figure 8: Share of US sales of alcoholic beverages, by location of consumption, at current prices, 2014-19 (est)
- Beer remains consumers’ top alcohol choice
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- Figure 9: Share of US sales of alcoholic beverages, by type of alcoholic beverage, 2014-19 (est)
- Figure 10: Total US on and off-premise sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer and craft beer, 2014-22
- Wine continues to experience steady growth
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of wine, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 13: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2014-22
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- Figure 14: Wine launches by share of packaging type, 2014 and 2019*
- Spirit sales projected to overtake wine sales
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- Figure 15: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of spirits, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 16: Distribution of spirits sales by volume, by segment, 2019 (estimate)
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- Figure 17: Total US volume sales of spirits, by segment, 2017 and 2019
- White spirits
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- Figure 18: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, 2014-22
- Dark spirits
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- Figure 19: US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, 2014-22
- Figure 20: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2014-19
- RTD alcoholic beverages
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- Figure 21: Total US volume sales and forecast of flavored malt beverages, 2014-22
- Figure 22: Total US volume sales and forecast of spirits-based prepared cocktails, 2014-22
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- Figure 23: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine coolers, 2014-22
Market Perspective
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- Legalization of marijuana could be competition for alcohol
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- Figure 24: Cannabis statements, July 2019
- Hard seltzers appeal to health-conscious consumers
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- Figure 25: Spiked spritzers
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- Figure 26: Four Loko tweet, 8/13/19
- Figure 27: Bartles & Jaymes premium wine coolers
Market Factors
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- Economic instability could curb going out
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- Figure 28: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-August 2019
- Millennials prioritize health over alcohol
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- Figure 29: Barriers to health and wellbeing improvement, by any rank and Millennials, March 2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Bars face sobering times
- Eatertainment venues attract patrons with games and high-quality menus
- Restaurants struggle to implement alcohol delivery operations
- Bars roll out CBD cocktails despite unclear federal approval
- Lambrusco bubbles up on menus
What’s Working?
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- Serving up drinks with a side of fun
- Bars appeal to the spectrum of sober patrons
- Bitter flavors hit the mark on menus
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- Figure 30: Increase in menu incidence for select bitters as an ingredient in alcoholic beverages, Q2 2016-Q2 2019
- Figure 31: Increase in menu item claim incidence for bitters as an ingredient in alcoholic beverages, Q2 2016-Q2 2019
What’s Struggling?
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- Alcohol delivery has difficulties taking hold
- Putting CBD on the menu is still TBD
What to Watch
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- Is Lambrusco the next rosé?
- Less is more for cocktail drinkers
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Nearly a quarter drink AFH more often
- Alcoholic beverage variety is important for diners
- Among those drinking less, price and health are concerns
- Socialization drives alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage purchase
Alcoholic Beverage Consumption by Location
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- Consumers drink more often AH than AFH
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- Figure 32: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net, July 2019
- Over half drink at a casual dining restaurant chain
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- Figure 33: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net: any alcohol, July 2019
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- Figure 34: TGI Friday’s email, “$5 Fridays 'Rita – All month long,” May 1, 2019
- Adventurous drinkers more likely to choose fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 35: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net: any alcohol, by adventurous drinker segmentation, July 2019
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- Figure 36: District Brew Yards’ beer wall
- Figure 37: Lux bar drink menu
- Gen Zers drink less than Millennials or Gen Xers
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- Figure 38: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net, by generation, July 2019
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- Figure 39: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2019
AFH Alcohol Consumption by Type
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- RTD alcoholic beverages are primed for on-premise consumption
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- Figure 40: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location – Net, July 2019
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- Figure 41: Alcoholic beverage consumption by location, July 2019
- A variety of alcoholic beverages appeals to diners
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- Figure 42: Repertoire of alcohol consumption – Net: any frequency, July 2019
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- Figure 43: Carrabba’s Bar & Grill email: “Your Invited August Wine Dinner,” August 6, 2019
Changes in AFH Drinking
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- Diners are drinking AFH more often
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- Figure 44: Changes in AFH drinking, July 2019 and January 2018
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- Figure 45: Changes in AFH drinking, by select demographics, July 2019
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- Figure 46: Longhorn’s email: “Look inside the best gifts for dad”, 6/13/2019
- Figure 47: Shore Club’s frozen cocktail flight
Reasons for Drinking AFH More
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- Socializing is a key driver for drinking AFH
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- Figure 48: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, July 2019
- Men are more motivated by drink variety
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- Figure 49: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, by gender, July 2019
Reasons for Drinking AFH Less
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- Overall alcohol reduction accounts for decreased AFH drinking
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- Figure 50: Reasons for drinking AFH less often, July 2019
- Health is a growing reason for drinking less AFH
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- Figure 51: Reasons for drinking AFH less often, July 2019 and January 2018
On-Premise Alcohol Occasions
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- Social occasions are top AFH drinking occasions
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- Figure 52: On-premise alcohol occasions – Net: any drink, July 2019
- AFH drinkers choose beer for a broad spectrum of occasions
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- Figure 53: On-premise alcohol occasions, July 2019
- Beers are for all occasions
- Wines are for food
- Spirits are for celebrations
New Drink Trial Motivators
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- One fifth of diners always try a new drink
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- Figure 54: Adventurous drinker segmentation, July 2019
- Young, urban consumers most likely to try new drinks
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- Figure 55: Adventurous drinker segmentation – Always try new drinks – CHAID – Tree output, July 2019
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- Figure 56: Adventurous drinker segmentation – Sometimes try new drinks – CHAID – Tree output, July 2019
- Almost four in 10 choose drinks based on flavors
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- Figure 57: New drink trial motivators – Net: any rank, July 2019
- Men motivated by branding
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- Figure 58: New Drink Trial Motivators – Net: any rank, by age and gender, July 2019
- Quality seekers motivated by server recommendations
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- Figure 59: New drink trial motivators – Net: any rank, by food and drink segmentation, July 2019
Non-alcoholic Drink Motivators
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- Diners want to be social with or without drinking
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- Figure 60: Non-alcoholic drink motivators – Net: any rank, July 2019
- Men may need help with moderation; women with calorie reduction
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- Figure 61: Non-alcoholic drink motivators – Net: any rank, by age and gender, July 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Mintel food and drink shopper segmentation
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- CHAID Analysis Methodology
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- Figure 63: Adventurous drinker segmentation – CHAID – Table output, July 2019
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