Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Key takeaways
- The issues
- Private label takes no prisoners
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- Figure 1: Multi-outlet sales of private label bacon and lunch meat, % sales change and % market share change, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Attrition rates beating increased consumption
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- Figure 2: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes, August 2019
- Category stuck in traditional usage
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- Figure 3: Bacon and lunch meat occasions, August 2019
- The opportunities
- Snacking a solution in more ways than one
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- Figure 4: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
- Authenticity and quality in demand
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- Figure 5: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, August 2019
- Create loyalty among unengaged consumers
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- Figure 6: Repertoire bacon and lunch meat attitudes by consumption, I typically purchase the same brands, August 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Lunch meat losses and bacon’s gains slow down
- New protein perceptions require shifts
- Average age increase may require brands to retap into disengaged audiences
Market Size and Forecast
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- Bacon and lunch meat remain stable
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Refrigerated lunch meat losses flat line
- Shelf stable gains are comparatively small, but strong
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of lunch meat, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Bacon growth slows pace
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Perspective
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- Protein prevails
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- Figure 11: Percentage of food products with high/added protein claims, 2014-18
- Good vs bad protein debate gets ethical
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- Figure 12: Whole Foods Video
- Plant-based shakes up the protein space
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- Figure 13: Dietary preferences, February 2019
- Cutting carbs mean cutting sandwiches
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- Figure 14: Reasons for decreased consumption, April 2018
- Snacking is a versatile opportunity
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- Figure 15: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
Market Factors
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- Processed meats villainized
- African swine fever complicates already unstable trade war markets
- Average age increase an issue and opportunity for brands
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- Figure 16: Population by age, 2013-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Dominant Kraft losing grip
- Private label chipping away at brand share
- Premium cuts take the stage
- “Natural” branding can go only so far
- Plant-based products grow in availability
Company and Brand Sales of Bacon and Lunch Meat
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- Kraft retains category dominance, while Land O’ Frost flounders
- Smithfield the breakout star in refrigerated lunch meat
- Tyson grows its share
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- Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of bacon and lunch meat, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of bacon and lunch meat, by leading companies, market share, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Private label continues to chip away at brand leaders
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of private label bacon and lunch meat, % sales change and % market share change, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Bringing the butcher to the aisle
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- Figure 20: Bacon and lunch meat brands with premium and thick cut products, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
- The proof is in the packaging
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- Figure 21: Bacon and lunch meat brands with claim-heavy packaging, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
- Figure 22: Bacon and lunch meat claims present on packaging, percent change from 2017-18
- Snack-ready formatting
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- Figure 23: Bacon and lunch meat brands with snack packaging, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
- Authenticity elevates private label
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- Figure 24: Bacon and lunch meat brands with regional positioning, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
What’s Struggling?
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- Natural claims can’t carry a product
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- Figure 25: Bacon and lunch meat brands with natural positioning, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
- Packaging especially critical for value brands
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- Figure 26: Bacon and lunch meat brands with natural positioning, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
What’s Next?
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- Plant-based products grow in availability
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- Figure 27: Plant-based bacon and lunch meat brands
- “Slow-growth,” “barn-free” and “crate free” the claims to watch
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- More people decreasing than increasing consumption
- Consumption frequency has not peaked
- A break from traditional uses is needed
- It’s a convenience category
Bacon and Lunch Meat Consumption
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- Bacon and lunch meat penetration remains strong
- No protein type dominates consumption
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- Figure 28: Bacon and lunch meat consumption, net, August 2019
- Deli vs prepackaged divide is small
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- Figure 29: Bacon and lunch meat consumption, August 2019
- Quality, convenience and adventure all motivators
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- Figure 30: Bacon and lunch meat consumption, August 2019
- Households with 3+ children the most engaged
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- Figure 31: Repertoire bacon and lunch meat consumption, by number of children including 18+ per household, August 2019
- Men consume more than women, especially non-moms
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- Figure 32: Net bacon and lunch meat consumption, by parental status by gender, August 2019
- Consumers 55+ finding protein elsewhere
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- Figure 33: Net bacon and lunch meat consumption, by age, August 2019
Bacon and Lunch Meat Consumption Frequency
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- Opportunity to increase daily consumption
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- Figure 34: Bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, August 2019
- Pork bacon struggles to permeate past monthly consumption
- Poultry leads consumption frequency
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- Figure 35: Net bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, once a week, August 2019
- Parents the most frequent consumers
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- Figure 36: Bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, by parental status, August 2019
- Consumption frequency varies by age
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- Figure 37: Bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, by age, August 2019
Bacon and Lunch Meat Attributes
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- Claims the proverbial lipstick on a pig?
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- Figure 38: Bacon and lunch meat attributes, August 2019
- Attributes sought differs by protein type
- Pork eaters don’t expect ham and bacon to be healthy
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- Figure 39: Bacon and lunch meat attributes by net consumption, any ham or bacon, August 2019
- Healthier proteins warrant more claims
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- Figure 40: Bacon and lunch meat attributes by net consumption, any turkey or chicken, August 2019
- Roast beef products primed for increased claims
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- Figure 41: Bacon and lunch meat attributes by net consumption, any roast beef, August 2019
- TURF Analysis
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- Figure 42: TURF Analysis – Important attributes, July 2019
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- Figure 43: Bacon and lunch meat attributes, by age, August 2019
- Parents more receptive to wellness claims
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- Figure 44: Bacon and lunch meat attributes, by parental status, August 2019
Bacon and Lunch Meat Usage
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- Breaking from tradition
- Breaking up with bread
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- Figure 45: Bacon and lunch meat occasions, August 2019
- Unengaged consumers most strongly tied to conventional usage
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- Figure 46: Bacon and lunch meat occasions, parental status by gender, August 2019
- Snacking an opportunity to expand consumption
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- Figure 47: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
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- Figure 48: Share of snacking, by age, November 2018
Bacon and Lunch Meat Attitudes
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- Brand loyalty remains strong among heavy users
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- Figure 49: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes, August 2019
- Figure 50: Repertoire bacon and lunch meat attitudes by consumption, I typically purchase the same brands, August 2019
- Everyone can agree on convenience
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- Figure 51: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes by consumption, I buy them because they are convenient, August 2019
- Women without children consuming less, likely due to health concerns
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- Figure 52: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes, parental status by gender, August 2019
Increased Purchase Drivers
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- Consumers satisfied with the status quo
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- Figure 53: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, August 2019
- Quality and packaging go hand-in-hand
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- Figure 54: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, consumption repertoire, August 2019
- Younger adults crave snack formatting
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- Figure 55: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, snack-sized packaging, August 2019
- Older consumers hard to sway
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- Figure 56: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase by age, none of the above, August 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Behavioral data
- Food and Drink Segmentation
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 65: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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- Figure 67: US supermarket sales of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 68: US sales of bacon and lunch meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of bacon, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 70: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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