Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Key takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2014-24
- The issues
- Category edges toward commoditization
- Health challenges impact virtually entire category
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- Figure 2: Sodium, saturated fat concerns, any agree, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2019
- Dairy-free options of particular interest to younger consumers
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- Figure 3: Natural versus dairy-free cheese consumption, by age, August 2019
- The opportunities
- Emphasize healthy aspects of cheese among younger consumers
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- Figure 4: Opinions of cheese’s protein and calcium content, by gender, by age, August 2019
- Emphasizing eco-friendly and sustainable practices
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- Figure 5: Sustainability and cheese, any agree, by age, August 2019
- Novel flavor/varieties could resonate with Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 6: Select cheese varieties consumed, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Cheese shows signs of maturation
- Natural cheese sees growth, as other segments falter
- Cheese's wide appeal
Market Size and Forecast
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- Extremely slow growth borders on stagnation
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Modest gains for natural cheese, stagnation/declines across other segments
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- Figure 9: Sales of cheese, by segment, 2014-24
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- “Other” retail channels make inroads into cheese sales
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of cheese, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Market Perspective
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- The gut health trend is a growing opportunity
- Vegan options see significant sales growth
Market Factors
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- Snacking occasion still has room to grow
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- Figure 12: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
- Cheese consumption spans generations
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- Figure 13: Population aged18+, by age, 2013-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private label cheese maintains significant market share
- White cheddar launches fare well
- Gut-healthy cheese challenged to overcome expensive reputation
- Dairy-free grows, has room for more
Company and Brand Sales of Cheese
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- Despite drop in sales, Kraft Heinz maintains market share lead among name brands
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- Figure 14: Sales of cheese, by company, 52 weeks ending July 14, 2019
- Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of cheese, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Real growth in cream cheese
- White cheddar introductions garnering positive consumer opinions
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- Figure 16: White cheddar cheese launches in the US, 2017-19*
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- Figure 17: Purchase attributes, white cheddar launches versus cheese launches in the US overall, 2017-19
What’s Struggling?
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- Cottage cheese fails to leverage health potential
What to Watch
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- Gut-healthy cheese opportunity but an expensive perception
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- Figure 18: Cheese launches in the US with prebiotics or probiotics, 2016-19
- Figure 19: Analysis of consumer opinions of prebiotic/probiotic cheeses, versus all cheeses launched in the US, 2017-19
- Plant-based cheese will move beyond vegan claims
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- Figure 20: Vegan/vegetarian cheese launches in the US, by claim, 2016-19
- Environmental benefits will reframe dairy-free
Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Cheese consumption widespread, but somewhat stagnant overall
- Dairy-free playing significant role among younger consumers
- Snack occasion well positioned for growth
- Expand purchase by increasing usage potential
- Driving cheese purchase with multiple attributes
- Cheese's healthy benefits resonate with consumers
- Snack sizes could introduce novel flavors/varieties
- Sustainability and younger consumers
Cheese Consumption
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- Widespread cheese usage
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- Figure 21: Cheese consumption, August 2019
- Traditional options broadly resonate, while dairy-free lures a fifth of younger
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- Figure 22: Cheese consumption, by age, August 2019
- Parents, especially fathers, consume a broader repertoire of cheeses
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- Figure 23: Cheese consumption, by parental status, by gender, August 2019
Cheese Consumption Frequency
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- Consumption frequency shows dairy-free dedication
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- Figure 24: Cheese consumption frequency, August 2019
- Young men are the most engaged and diversified targets
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- Figure 25: Cheese consumption frequency, by gender, by age, August 2019
Cheese Varieties Consumed
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- Cheddar remains most popular, followed by mozzarella and Parmesan
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- Figure 26: Cheese varieties consumed, August 2019
- Higher-income households reach for a mix of mainstream and distinct cheeses
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- Figure 27: Cheese varieties consumed, by household income, August 2019
- Hispanic Millennials enjoy a broad cheese repertoire
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- Figure 28: Cheese varieties consumed, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2019
Consumption by Format
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- Format tied to ultimate usage
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- Figure 29: Cheese consumption by format, August 2019
- Convenience products resonate with younger adults
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- Figure 30: Cheese consumption by format, by age, August 2019
Cheese Usage
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- Expanding usage occasions
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- Figure 31: Cheese usage, August 2019
- Usages vary by age
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- Figure 32: Cheese usage, by gender, by age, August 2019
- Cheese snackers seek bolder flavors, clean nutrition
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- Figure 33: Cheese considerations, by cheese usage occasions, August 2019
Attributes Associated with Cheese
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- Health factors prove a key driver for cheese
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- Figure 34: Cheese attributes, August 2019
- Young men less cognizant of nutritional benefits
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- Figure 35: Cheese attributes, by gender, by age, August 2019
- Cheese enthusiasts embrace both the healthy and indulgent sides
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- Figure 36: Cheese attributes, by repertoire of usage occasions, August 2019
- All cheese types have strong ties to healthy snacking
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- Figure 37: Cheese attributes, by cheese consumption, August 2019
Cheese Choice Drivers
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- Brands resonate, with a lesser role for health and flavor
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- Figure 38: Drivers of cheese consumption, August 2019
- Cheese type dictates the importance of brand
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- Figure 39: Cheese considerations, by cheese consumption, August 2019
- Multiple drivers in unison to widen cheese’s appeal
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- Figure 40: TURF – Drivers of cheese choice, August 2019
Health and Cheese
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- Health benefits may counter health concerns
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- Figure 41: Health perceptions of cheese, August 2019
- Younger consumers altruistic dairy concerns could have longer term impact
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- Figure 42: Health opinions of cheese, any agree, by age, August 2019
- Hispanics more likely concerned about dairy and to turn to dairy-free
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- Figure 43: Health opinions of cheese, any agree, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2019
Specific Health Attributes of Cheese
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- Protein plays a big role in cheese’s healthy reputation
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- Figure 44: Opinions of certain healthy aspects associated with cheese, August 2019
- Cheese’s saturated fat of distinct concern to Black consumers
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- Figure 45: Opinions of certain healthy aspects associated with cheese, any agree, by race, August 2019
- Health concerns also among Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 46: Opinions of certain healthy aspects associated with cheese, any agree, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2019
Cheese Use Attitudes
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- Consumers looking for portability and new ways to enjoy
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- Figure 47: Using cheese, August 2019
- Parents seek convenient and diverse snack options
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- Figure 48: Using cheese, any agree, by parental status, August 2019
Sustainability and Cheese
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- Environmental concerns about dairy not at the forefront for consumers
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- Figure 49: Sustainability and cheese, August 2019
- The stage is set for eco-friendly consumers to grow
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- Figure 50: Sustainability and cheese, any agree, by age, August 2019
- Sustainable messaging resonating with Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 51: Sustainability and cheese, any agree, by Hispanic origin, by generation, August 2019
Cheese by Food and Drink Consumer Segmentation
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- Food and drink consumer segmentation
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- Figure 52: Food/drink consumer segmentation of cheese, August 2019
- Driving Quality Seekers with freshness and flavor
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- Figure 53: Health-related opinions of cheese, by food/drink consumer segmentation, August 2019
- Adventure Eaters seek unique experiences
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- Figure 54: Drivers of cheese consumption, by food/drink consumer segmentation, August 2019
- Convenience motivates Time Savers
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- Figure 55: Single-serve cheese packaging as a driver, by food/drink consumer segmentation, August 2019
- Value Chasers could expand their usage occasions
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- Figure 56: Cheese usage, by food/drink consumer segmentation, August 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 57: Total US sales and forecast of cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of natural cheese, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of natural cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of processed cheese, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of processed cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream cheese/cream cheese spreads, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream cheese/cream cheese spreads, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of cottage cheese, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of cottage cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 68: Total US retail sales of cheese, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 69: US supermarket sales of cheese, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 70: US sales of cheese through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of cheese, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of natural cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of processed cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of cream cheese/spreads, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of cottage cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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