Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Solar PV deployment drops by 69% to just 291MW in 2018
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- Figure 1: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2011-18
- Subsidy-free, large-scale, ground-mounted solar PV market starting to take off
- Residential rooftop market to be driven by solar-plus-storage systems
- Solar PV deployment in commercial sector to be driven by PPA-backed projects
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- Figure 2: Building-mounted photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, as of March 2019
- Solar PV deployment expected to accelerate towards the end of the five-year forecast period
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- Figure 3: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2019-23
- Companies and brands
- Abrupt government policy changes result in many companies exiting UK solar PV sector
- Installers are diversifying into energy storage, energy efficiency and EV charging
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Energy storage systems and growing EV market to drive take-up of rooftop solar PV in post-subsidy world
- The facts
- The implications
- Community solar PV schemes face considerable challenges but new opportunities are starting to emerge
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Solar PV deployment drops by 69% to just 291MW in 2018
- Post-FiT residential rooftop market to be driven by solar-plus-storage systems
- Solar PV deployment in commercial sector to be driven by PPA-backed projects
- Subsidy-free, large-scale, ground-mounted solar PV market starting to take off
Market Size
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- Introduction
- Over 13GW of solar PV installed in UK
- Solar PV deployment drops by 69% to just 291MW in 2018
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- Figure 4: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2013-19
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- Figure 5: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2011-18
Market Segmentation
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- Overview
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- Figure 6: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2014-19
- Solar PV installations by accreditation scheme
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- Figure 7: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme, 2014-19
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- Figure 8: Photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, as of June 2019
- Residential solar PV market
- Slump in residential solar PV deployment
- Post-FiT market to be driven by solar-plus-storage systems
- New finance options to emerge in post-subsidy world
- Introduction of Smart Export Guarantee expected to lead to more competitive tariffs for residential customers with solar PV
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- Figure 9: Residential photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2014-19
- Building-mounted (commercial) solar PV market
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- Figure 10: Building-mounted photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2014-19
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- Figure 11: Building-mounted photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, as of March 2019
- Companies continue to face barriers to deployment in commercial solar PV market
- Commercial rooftop market hit by sharp business rate hikes in April 2017
- Solar PV deployment in commercial sector to be driven by PPA-backed projects
- Ground-mounted solar PV market
- Subsidy-free, large-scale solar PV market starting to take off
- Emergence of PPAs presents growth opportunities for ground-mounted solar PV installations
- 1,054 solar farms (over 1MW) operational as of June 2019
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- Figure 12: Ground-mounted and large-scale photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2014-19
- Community solar PV installations
- Community solar projects face considerable challenges
- New opportunities starting to emerge
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- Figure 13: Community solar PV generation capacity, 2011-18
Regional Trends
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- Regional development
- London aims to boost solar PV deployment as part of the capital’s environment strategy
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- Figure 14: Household penetration of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by region, 2015-19
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- Figure 15: Regional distribution of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by type and region, cumulative as of March 2019
The European/World Context
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- Figure 16: World, EU and UK cumulative photovoltaic installations, 2013-18
- Figure 17: World development of photovoltaic installations, 2012-18
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Market Forecast
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- Solar PV deployment expected to accelerate towards the end of the five-year review period
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- Figure 18: Forecast photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, 2019-23
- Figure 19: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2019-23
Market Trends
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- Battery storage and growing EV market set to drive take-up of residential rooftop solar PV
- Large-scale battery storage market is taking off
- Solar companies are turning their attention to new build sector and local authorities
- BIPV market set to become more established
- Utility sector offers opportunities for solar firms
- Growth in EVs set to drive development of solar carports
Government Policy and Legislative Environment
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- Government commitment to reduce carbon emissions
- UK makes good progress in reducing CO2 emissions to date, but on track to miss targets between 2023 and 2032
- Policies to decarbonise electricity
- Renewables Obligation
- Contracts for Difference
- Feed-in Tariffs
- Drastic cuts to FiTs cause rooftop solar PV deployment to plummet
- Capacity Market
Market Drivers
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- New housebuilding sector offers huge growth potential for solar PV companies
- Rented sector offers growth opportunities
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- Figure 20: Residential dwelling stock in Great Britain, 2012-17
- Number of non-domestic properties
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- Figure 21: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 1 April, 2017 (000s and % of total)
- Figure 22: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by property type, as at 31 March, 2015
- Solar PV witnesses remarkable fall in costs
- But closure of FiT scheme will increase payback period for residential rooftop solar systems
- EU scraps anti-dumping duty on China solar panels from September 2018
- Solar panels and battery systems face VAT hike from 5% to 20%
- BEIS and Ofgem unveil plans for major upgrade of the UK’s energy systems, including the removal of barriers to storage
- Government’s £246 million battery investment strategy
- UK energy mix and growth in renewable energy sector
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- Figure 23: Analysis of electricity generation the UK, by type of fuel used, 2014-18
- Figure 24: Proportional importance of fuel source in UK electricity generation, 2014 and 2018
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- Figure 25: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2014-18
- The UK climate
- Other factors
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- BSR launches behind-the-meter energy storage solutions provider
- BP invests in Lightsource to drive global solar expansion
- Lightsource builds significant PPA-backed solar pipeline
- Solarcentury focuses on international expansion but also sees near-term growth in UK post-subsidy market
Industry Structure
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- Abrupt government policy changes result in many companies exiting UK solar PV sector
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- Figure 26: Employment and number of companies active across UK solar PV supply chain, 2012-17
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- Figure 27: UK solar PV sector turnover, 2012-17
- Key industry players
- Installers are diversifying into energy storage, energy efficiency and EV charging
- Solar companies are looking for international expansion
Company Profiles
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- British Solar Renewables
- BSR launches behind-the-meter energy storage solutions provider in 2017
- Financial performance
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- Figure 28: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2014-18
- EvoEnergy
- Financial performance
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- Figure 29: Financial analysis of EvoEnergy, 2012-17
- Lightsource BP Renewable Energy Investment
- BP invests in Lightsource to drive global expansion
- Other recent partnerships
- Operational solar assets
- Operations and maintenance
- Construction assets and pipeline
- Financial performance
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- Figure 30: Financial analysis of Lightsource BP Renewable Energy Investment, 2016-18
- Solarcentury Holdings
- IKEA/Solarcentury solar panels offering removed in the UK with the closure of the FiT scheme
- Company review and outlook
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- Figure 31: Financial analysis of Solarcentury Holdings, 2015-19
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Methodology
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- Trade magazines
- Trade events
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