Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Market factors
- Free movement of goods important to the island of Ireland
- Consumer spending falls due to Brexit worries
- RoI consumers see personal finances improve; NI consumers financially insecure
- Irish consumers expecting finances to improve in the year ahead despite Brexit concerns
- Issues impacting companies’ Brexit preparations
- The consumer
- Little change seen in most consumers’ finances
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- Figure 1: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Groceries a key spending area for Irish consumers
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- Figure 2: Consumers’ spending in the last six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Taking a holiday is a priority for consumers over the next six months
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- Figure 3: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Consumers think economy will be negatively impacted by Brexit
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- Figure 4: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Irish consumers think it’s important to support local producers post-Brexit
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- Figure 5: Agreement with statements related to Brexit, NI and RoI, June 2019
- What we think
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- RoI remains NI’s largest export market
- Sterling continues to decline against the euro
- Food prices falling in RoI, rising in NI
- Irish consumers optimistic personal finances will improve
Market Drivers
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- UK’s departure from EU delayed by six months
- Support highest for UK to retain full EU membership
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- Figure 6: Consumers’ hopes for the outcome of Brexit negotiations, NI and RoI, June 2019
- euro continues to strengthen against Sterling
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- Figure 7: Exchange rates involving Sterling and euro, January 2018-July 2019
- RoI remains the largest single export market for NI
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- Figure 8: Value of exports, by region, NI, 2016 and 2017
- RoI economy continues to grow
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- Figure 9: Total value of imports and exports, 2017 and 2018
- RoI exports most of its goods to the US
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- Figure 10: Top five export markets and NI, RoI, 2017 and 2018
- Great Britain the main import market for RoI
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- Figure 11: Top five import markets and NI, RoI, 2017 and 2018
- NI has highest business insolvency rate in the UK
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- Figure 12: Percentage increase in total number of business insolvencies since the EU referendum, UK (including NI), by region, 2016/17-2018/19
- Brexit worries impact consumer spending
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- Figure 13: Consumer spending index, RoI, July 2018-June 2019
- Food prices falling in RoI, rising in the UK/NI
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- Figure 14: Consumer price index vs food inflation, RoI, January 2018-June 2019
- Figure 15: Consumer price index vs food inflation, UK (including NI), January 2018-June 2019
- NI consumers remain fragile
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- Figure 16: Financial health of Irish consumers, NI, June 2018 and June 2019
- Figure 17: Financial health of Irish consumers, RoI, June 2018 and June 2019
- Irish consumers optimistic for the year ahead
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- Figure 18: How consumers expect their personal financial situation to change in the next 12 months, NI, June 2018 and June 2019
- Figure 19: How consumers expect their personal financial situation to change in the next 12 months, RoI, June 2018 and June 2019
Preparing for Brexit – What You Need to Know
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- Currency exchange rates benefit Charles Hurst’s cross-border sales
- Dalata Hotels trading favourably but impact of exchange rate should be considered
- Lakeland Dairies’ principle issue is the potential impact of tariffs
- Vodafone’s Irish consumers avoid mobile roaming charges
- Tesco advises October 2019 is least opportune moment for Brexit
Preparing for Brexit
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- Charles Hurst
- Key facts
- Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
- How Charles Hurst is preparing for Brexit
- Dalata Hotels
- Key facts
- Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
- How the Dalata Group is preparing for Brexit
- Lakeland Dairies
- Key facts
- Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
- How Lakeland Dairies is preparing for Brexit
- Vodafone
- Key facts
- Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
- How Vodafone is preparing for Brexit
- Tesco
- Key facts
- Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
- How Tesco is preparing for Brexit
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers’ finances remain the same as last year
- Spending on food and drink for home increases
- Irish consumers worried that Brexit will negatively impact economy
- Supporting local food and drink producers important post-Brexit
Financial Situation
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- Most Irish consumers’ finances are the same as last year
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- Figure 20: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Young consumers feel better off financially
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- Figure 21: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, by age, NI, June 2019
- Figure 22: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, by age, RoI, June 2019
Spending Intentions
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- Consumers spending more on food and drink for home
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- Figure 23: Consumers’ spending in the last six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Savings and investments a priority for Millennial spending
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- Figure 24: Consumers’ spending on savings and investments in the last six months, by age, NI, June 2019
- Figure 25: Consumers’ spending on savings and investments in the last six months, by age, RoI, June 2019
- Spending on food and drink for home increases among ABC1s
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- Figure 26: Consumers’ spending on food and drink for home in the last six months, by social class, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Figure 27: Consumers’ spending on eating out (including takeaways) in the last six months, by social class, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Irish consumers will spend ‘about the same’ on most areas
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- Figure 28: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Young consumers most likely to spend more on holidays
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- Figure 29: Consumers who expect to spend more on holidays in the next six months, by generation, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Irish men planning on spending more in the next six months
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- Figure 30: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, by gender, NI, June 2019
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- Figure 31: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, by gender, RoI, June 2019
Impact on the Economy
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- Irish consumers more likely to be pessimistic on Brexit impact
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- Figure 32: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Millennials most likely to think Brexit will have a positive economic impact
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- Figure 33: Consumers who think Brexit will have a positive impact on economic growth, by age, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Irish men positive about economic impact of Brexit
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- Figure 34: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, by gender, NI, June 2019
- Figure 35: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, by gender, RoI, June 2019
- Young consumers optimistic on savings and investments post-Brexit
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- Figure 36: Consumers who think Brexit will have a positive impact on their savings and investments, by age, NI and RoI, June 2019
Attitudes towards Brexit
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- Supporting local food producers post-Brexit important to consumers
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- Figure 37: Agreement with statements related to Brexit, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Local food and drink appeal to women
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- Figure 38: Agreement with the statement ‘It will be more important to support local food/drink producers after Brexit’, by gender, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Affluent NI consumers interested in holidaying outside the EU
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- Figure 39: Agreement with the statement ‘A holiday outside of the EU will be more attractive post-Brexit’, by social class, NI, June 2019
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- Figure 40: Agreement with the statement ‘A holiday in Great Britain/NI will be better value for money post-Brexit’, by social class, RoI, June 2019
- Parents concerned about medicine availability post-Brexit
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- Figure 41: Agreement with the statement ‘Availability of certain medicines will be negatively affected by Brexit’, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, June 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Generational cohort definitions
- Abbreviations
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