Table of Contents
Executive Summary
-
- Key takeaways
- Overview
- Stagnating sales in the center of the store
-
- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2014-24
- The issues
- Easy food options abound
- Value alone proving insufficient in the center
-
- Figure 2: US shelf-stable food launches, by most private label introductions, 2017-19*
- The opportunities
- Emphasize the center is not the antithesis to healthy
-
- Figure 3: Purchase factors in center of the store, July 2019
- Seek to engage the consumer
-
- Figure 4: Price and list-making on shopping the center of the store, July 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
-
- Center sales continue to stall
- Obesity rates continue to rise, as brands promote more holistic foods
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Center-store sales to remain largely stagnant
-
- Figure 5: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 6: Total retail sales and forecast of center-of-store foods, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
-
- Shelf-stable maintains dominant share of center-store sales
-
- Figure 7: Sales of center of the store, in billions, by segment, 2014-24
- Shelf-stable to continue modest growth
-
- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of edible (shelf-stable) foods, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 9: Total retail sales and forecast of edible grocery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Frozen brands need to a refresh
-
- Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen foods, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 11: Total retail sales and forecast of frozen food, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Perspective
-
- Health concerns impact center-store staples
-
- Figure 12: Attitudes toward healthy eating, May 2018
Market Factors
-
- Obesity rates rising
- Hispanics, particularly Millennials, seeking healthier foods
-
- Figure 13: US population, by Hispanic origin, 2017
- Changing retail face challenges traditional grocery
-
- Figure 14: Real disposable personal income, January 2014-June 2019, updated August 1, 2019
Key Players – What You Need to Know
-
- Ethical, environmental claims are the new convenience
- Lean into natural cues
- Plant-based meat alternatives stand out from the processed pack
What’s Working?
-
- Ethical claims providing a point of differentiation
- Brand trust, premium pivotal to indulgent COS categories
-
- Figure 15: Center-store food/drink launches in the US, by private label versus branded, 2017-19
What’s Struggling?
-
- Failure to focus
-
- Figure 16: Sales of condensed wet soups and cold cereals, 2015-23
- Value alone proving insufficient for private label
-
- Figure 17: Private label food/drink launches with natural, environmentally friendly, organic claims, 2013-18
What’s Next?
-
- COS brands lean into the power of protein in unconventional ways
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- Wide use of center-store options
- Supermarkets losing their grip on food and drink shoppers
- Ease and convenience are hallmarks of COS foods
- Opportunities for dual wellness positioning: personal and the planet
- Store-center shopping has grown complacent
- Fewer ingredients, the better
- Target parents for delivery services
- Negative health perception may signal opportunity
Center-store Departments Shopped
-
- Shelf-stable options prove most popular among center-store categories
-
- Figure 18: Center-store departments shopped, July 2019
- Parents drawn to center-store categories
-
- Figure 19: Center-store departments shopped, by parental status, July 2019
- Hispanic Millennials are strong in use of most center-store categories
-
- Figure 20: Center-store departments shopped, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2019
- Center-store purchase nearly ubiquitous
-
- Figure 21: Repertoire of grocery department use, July 2019
- Habits, brand loyalty is split 50/50 in the COS
-
- Figure 22: Food shopping behaviors, by repertoire of grocery department use, July 2019
- Addressing negative opinions would drive COS traffic
-
- Figure 23: Negative opinions of center of the store, by repertoire of grocery department use, July 2019
Center-store Purchase Locations
-
- Supermarkets remain shopping destination for center-store goods
-
- Figure 24: Center-store purchase locations, July 2019
- Black consumers open to multiple channels including dollar, local grocers
-
- Figure 25: Center-store purchase locations, by race, July 2019
- Hispanic consumers most likely to shop a diversity of stores for center-store goods
-
- Figure 26: Center-store purchase locations, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2019
Comparing Center-store Departments
-
- Convenience is the tie that binds
- Frozen produce shakes unhealthy COS rap
-
- Figure 27: Correspondence analysis – Store department associations, by type, July 2019
-
- Figure 28: Store department associations, by type, July 2019
Purchase Factors in the Center Store
-
- Taste, price hold sway; opportunity for nutrition and wellbeing
-
- Figure 29: Purchase factors in center of the store, July 2019
Behaviors and Center of the Store
-
- Habitual behavior is strong(er) but not unbreakable
-
- Figure 30: Behaviors and the center of the store, July 2019
Ingredients in Center-store Foods
-
- Ingredient concerns not confined to the center of the store
-
- Figure 31: Ingredients and center-store foods, July 2019
Improving the Center of the Store
-
- ‘Less-processed’ concepts offer promise, while delivery evolves
-
- Figure 32: Opinions for improving center-store offerings, July 2019
- Less-processed potential for parents
-
- Figure 33: Opinions for improving center-store offerings, by parental status, July 2019
Perception of Center of the Store
-
- Healthy upgrades can raise the bar
-
- Figure 34: Perception of the center of the store, July 2019
- “Junk” reputation firmly established among Hispanic Millennials
-
- Figure 35: Perception of the center of the store, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2019
Shopping the Center of the Store
-
- Majority of consumers plan their center-store purchases
-
- Figure 36: Shopping the center of the store, July 2019
- Parents planning and pricing their center-store purchases
-
- Figure 37: Shopping the center of the store, by parental status, July 2019
- Hispanics much more likely to regard center of the store as something of a last resort
-
- Figure 38: Shopping the center of the store, by Hispanic origin, by generation, July 2019
Center of the Store by Consumer Segmentation
-
- Food and Drink Consumer Segmentation
-
- Figure 39: Food/drink consumer segmentation of center of the store, July 2019
- Innovations hold appeal to Adventure Eaters
-
- Figure 40: Opinions for improving center-store offerings, by food/drink consumer segmentation, July 2019
- East of preparation motivating Time Savers
-
- Figure 41: Center of store purchase factors, by food/drink consumer segmentation, July 2019
- Value Chasers likelier to use lists
-
- Figure 42: Center of store shopping behaviors, by food/drink consumer segmentation, July 2019
- Quality Seekers unmotivated by price
-
- Figure 43: Opinions of shopping the center of store, by food/drink consumer segmentation, July 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
-
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
-
-
- Figure 44: Total retail sales and forecast of center-of-store foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 45: Total retail sales and forecast of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 46: Total retail sales and forecast of center-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 47: Total retail sales and forecast of edible grocery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
-
- Figure 48: Total retail sales and forecast of frozen food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
-
Appendix – Correspondence Analysis Methodology
-
-
- Figure 49: Store department associations, by type, July 2019
-
Back to top