Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Key Takeaways
- The issues
- Loose fresh fruit dominates consumption
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- Figure 1: Fruit consumption, May 2019
- Perceptions low among non-loose fresh fruit
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- Figure 2: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Fruit type associations, May 2019
- Brands struggle to stand out among private label in non-fresh segments
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- Figure 3: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Expanding consumption into meal times
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- Figure 4: Reasons for increased consumption, May 2019
- Younger consumers are strong targets for trial, loyalty
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- Figure 5: Change in fruit consumption, by age, May 2019
- Increasing non-parent consumption
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- Figure 6: Repertoire of fruit consumption, by parental status, May 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Growth of fruit sales slows
- Fresh segment increasingly holds the largest market share
- Declining number of households with children could prove problematic
- Center-of-store struggles hurting non-fresh segments
Market Size and Forecast
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- Fruit sales growth slows
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Fresh fuels category performance, at the expense of other segments
- Center-of-store struggles impact other category segments
- Canned/jarred fruit falls deeper into existing losses
- Frozen slides into a downward slope
- Dried fruit sees small, steady gains
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Perspective
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- Made-to-order and RTD smoothies can challenge (or inspire) fruit sales
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- Figure 11: Made-to-order smoothie purchase – Net – Any location, February 2017 and January 2019
- Vegetable sales outpace fruit as the war against sugar stays strong
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- Figure 12: Health attributes sought, May 2018
- Center-of-store growth remains minimal
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- Figure 13: MULO sales and forecast of center of the store at current prices; total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store products, % of total sale, 2012-2020
Market Factors
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- Declining number of households with children give fruit fewer mouths to feed
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- Figure 14: US households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
- Snack revolution favors fruit consumption
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- Figure 15: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private label dominates share and growth
- Brands struggle
- Snack occasion drives innovation
Company and Brand Sales of Fruit
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- Sun-Maid a bright spot amid big brand losses
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- Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Private label chipping away at brand sales
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- Figure 18: Fruit introductions in the US, private label versus branded, 2014-2018
- Dole and Del Monte leverage holistic wellness amid declining sales
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by market share percent change, rolling 52 weeks of 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Exotic fruits give an old category new tricks
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- Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing frozen brands – Sambazon, Pitaya Plus, The Jackfruit Company, rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Fruit chips 2.0
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- Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing dried brands – Dang, Crispy Fruit, Chifles, Sun-Maid, rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Smoothie packs remove guesswork
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- Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing frozen brands – Dole, Thrive!, Great Value, rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Cleaner positioning, claims can revive shelf stable
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- Figure 23: Percentage of shelf canned/jarred fruit products with claims, percent change 2017-2018
- Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing canned/jarred brands – Del Monte, Dole rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Farm to Freezer
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- Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing frozen brands – Seal the Seasons, Michigan Farm to Freezer, Wyman’s of Maine rolling 52 weeks 2018
What’s Struggling?
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- Innovation overload?
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- Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select declining canned/jarred brands – Del Monte, Dole rolling 52 weeks 2018
- Basic frozen fruit products easily overshadowed by private label options
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- Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select declining frozen brands – Dole rolling 52 weeks 2018
What’s Next?
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- Removing blenders from the smoothie experience
- Sustainability an answer to differentiation and expansion?
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Loose fresh is the fruit of choice
- Not all fruit is created equally
- Snacking is the occasion of choice
- Age is the strongest differentiator in consumer perception
Fruit Consumption
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- Most consumers opt for loose fresh fruit
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- Figure 28: Fruit consumption, May 2019
- Women are ripe for engagement
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- Figure 29: Fruit consumption, by gender, May 2019
- Parents more deeply engaged in the category
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- Figure 30: Fruit consumption, by parental status, May 2019
- Figure 31: Repertoire of fruit consumption, by parental status, May 2019
- More children means wider engagement
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- Figure 32: Fruit consumption, by household size, May 2019
- Consumers age out of non-fresh fruit
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- Figure 33: Fruit consumption, by age, May 2019
Change in Fruit Consumption
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- The majority of consumers holding steady or increasing fruit consumption
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- Figure 34: Change in fruit consumption, May 2019
- Younger adults are more likely to change their consumption
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- Figure 35: Change in fruit consumption, May 2019
Reasons for Increased Consumption
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- BFY snacking boosts fruit consumption
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- Figure 36: Reasons for increased consumption, May 2019
- Dried is the fruit of choice for consumers, replacing other snacks with fruit
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- Figure 37: Reasons for increased consumption – Replacing other snacks with fruit, by fruit format, May 2019
- Frozen fruit is recipe-ready, needs to break away from smoothies
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- Figure 38: Reasons for increased consumption – Using fruit as an ingredient in recipes, by fruit format, May 2019
- Brands need to meet non-parents at meal times
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- Figure 39: Reasons for increased consumption, by parental status, May 2019
- Consumers over 55 most likely to replace snacks with fruit
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- Figure 40: Reasons for increased consumption – Replacing other snacks with fruit, by age, May 2019
Fruit Purchase Factors
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- Everything is second to freshness
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- Figure 41: Fruit purchase factors, May 2019
- Freshness and flavor most important to older consumers
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- Figure 42: Fruit purchase factors – Freshness and flavor, by age, May 2019
- Figure 43: Fruit purchase factors, pre-washed and pre-cut, by age, May 2019
Fruit Associations
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- The further away from loose/fresh, the worse the perceptions
- Dried fruit ekes out some positive perceptions
- Frozen segment struggles with taste and nutrition
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- Figure 44: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Fruit format associations, May 2019
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- Figure 45: Fruit format associations, May 2019
- Versatility an opportunity for growth
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- Figure 46: Fruit type associations – Versatile, May 2019
- Dried fruit has low kid-friendly perception
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- Figure 47: Fruit format associations – Dried fruit, by parental status, May 2019
- Fruit cups can’t shake the unhealthy rap
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- Figure 48: Fruit format associations – Snack friendly, May 2019
Fruit Behaviors
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- Moving past the snack occasion
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- Figure 49: Fruit behaviors, May 2019
- Snacking motivations differ by age
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- Figure 50: Snack motivations, by age, November 2018
- Consumers aged 35-44 seek out functional fruit
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- Figure 51: Fruit behaviors, by age and parental status, May 2019
- 18-24 year olds struggle the most to consume enough fruit
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- Figure 52: Fruit behaviors – I struggle to eat the daily recommended amount of fruit, by age, May 2019
Fruit Attitudes
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- Some skepticism remains in fruit segments
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- Figure 53: Fruit attitudes, May 2019
- Younger consumers need guidance in the benefits of frozen
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- Figure 54: Fruit attitudes – Frozen fruit provides as much nutrition as fresh, by age, May 2019
- Older consumers most concerned about pre-cut fruit
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- Figure 55: Fruit attitudes, pre-cut attitudes, by age, May 2019
- Households with more children more aware of food waste
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- Figure 56: Fruit attitudes – Non-fresh fruit helps reduce food waste, by number of children in household under 18, May 2019
- Households with 3+ children are a bright spot for ugly produce programs
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- Figure 57: Fruit attitudes, interest in ugly produce programs, by number of children under 18 in household, May 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Repertoire methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 58: Total US retail sales of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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- Figure 69: US supermarket sales of fruit, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 70: US sales of fruit through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of canned/jarred fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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