Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- Key takeaways
- The issues
- Coffee leaders are falling behind
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- Figure 1: Coffee consumption – Drink most often, by age, May 2019
- Beverages are blurring, but their threat to coffee is clear
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- Figure 2: Beverage purchase for at-home consumption, April 2017 and 2019
- The opportunities
- RTD coffee outshines the rest
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- Figure 3: RTD coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, may 2019
- Is coffee the key to relaxation?
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- Figure 4: Functional coffee qualities, May 2019
- Espresso opportunity in US still looms large
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- Figure 5: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, may 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Coffee and creamer markets chart growth by meeting both health and taste demands
- RTD coffee drives segment growth, steals market share
- Blurring beverages pose a competitive threat to coffee
Market Size and Forecast
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- Coffee is projected to grow moderately through 2024
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2014-24
- The cream and creamer market will grow respectably alongside coffee
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamers, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Roasted coffee market share falls in favor of other formats
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- Figure 9: Percentage market share of coffee market, by segment, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Single-cup and RTD coffee forecasted to grow sales through 2024
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Consumers increasingly source coffee from nontraditional channels
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Market Perspective
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- Coffee has growing competitive strength but faces threats from caffeinated water and more
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- Figure 13: Beverage purchase for at-home consumption, April 2017 and 2019
- Foodservice coffee continues to perform well
Market Factors
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- A strong economy encourages lower- and middle-income consumers to spend on beverages
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- Figure 14: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-June 2019
- Young consumers choose nontraditional options for their primary coffee beverage
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- Figure 15: Coffee consumption – Drink most often, by age, May 2019
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Top coffee players continue to lose share
- The darker the better for today’s coffee
- RTD is a bright spot thanks to innovation
Brand Sales of Coffee
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- The biggest coffee brands continue to lose share
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- Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Whole bean coffee
- Espresso and darker coffee roasts
- Functional RTD coffee
- Plant-based RTDs and standalone creamers
What’s Struggling?
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- Roasted coffee legacy brands struggle to keep up
- Instant coffee hasn’t overcome its lower quality perception
What’s Next?
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- CBD coffee
- Will flash brew be the next cold brew?
- Edible coffee
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- RTD coffee is poised for growth
- Consumers turn to coffee for new and different functions
- Consumers want coffee to offer health attributes above all else
Coffee Consumption
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- Consumers tend to drink RTD coffee in addition to the coffee they drink most
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- Figure 17: Coffee consumption – NET coffee varieties, May 2019
- Most consumers drink at least two types of coffee
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- Figure 18: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by repertoire analysis, May 2019
- Espresso drinks tend to be supplemental to another, more frequently consumed type of coffee
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- Figure 19: Coffee consumption – Grounds, pods and instant, May 2019
- Consumers seek out flavors in RTD coffee beverages
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- Figure 20: Coffee consumption – RTD, May 2019
- Consumers are drinking more decaf coffee and flavored RTD cold brew
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- Figure 21: Change in coffee consumption year over year – NET any drink, May 2018 and 2019
- Young consumers are driving RTD and espresso growth
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- Figure 22: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, May 2019
- Higher-income consumers drink more coffee from pods
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- Figure 23: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by household income, May 2019
- Hispanic consumers drive RTD coffee growth
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- Figure 24: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
Coffee Additions
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- Consumers are adding less sugar to their coffee drinks
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- Figure 25: Coffee and tea additions, April 2017 and 2019
Premium Coffee Qualities & Price Sensitivity
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- Consumers prioritize coffee that’s clean and free of artificial ingredients
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- Figure 26: Premium coffee qualities, May 2019
- Marketing coffee as both clean and free of artificial ingredients will appeal to the majority of coffee consumers
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- Figure 27: Premium coffee qualities, by TURF analysis, May 2019
- Millennials seek out premium, artisan coffee qualities
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- Figure 28: Premium coffee qualities, by generation, May 2019
- Parents drive demand for premium coffee qualities
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- Figure 29: Premium coffee qualities, by parental status, May 2019
- Fair trade has a slightly lower price threshold than organic or third-party environmental certified coffee
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- Figure 30: Price sensitivity to premium coffee qualities, May 2019
Functional Coffee Qualities
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- Consumers like to be told how their coffee is helping them
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- Figure 31: Functional coffee qualities, May 2019
- Women drive demand for several functional coffee ingredients
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- Figure 32: Functional coffee qualities, by gender, May 2019
- Gen Zers and Millennials are the most interested in CBD coffee
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- Figure 33: Functional coffee qualities, by generation, May 2019
- Hispanic consumers overindex in functional coffee ingredient interest
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- Figure 34: Functional coffee qualities, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
Coffee Flavors
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- Vanilla, mocha and caramel are leading coffee flavors by far
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- Figure 35: Coffee flavors, May 2019
- Young women drive demand for coffee flavor innovation
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- Figure 36: Coffee flavors, by gender and age, May 2019
- Most Black consumers prefer caramel coffee flavors
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- Figure 37: Coffee flavors, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
Innovative Coffee Concepts
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- Coffee products from coffee shop brands are highly appealing
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- Figure 38: Innovative coffee concepts, May 2019
- Millennials desire innovative coffee products such as flash brewed coffee and single-serve pour over packets
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- Figure 39: Innovative coffee concepts, by generation, May 2019
- Middle-income consumers drive coffee product innovation
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- Figure 40: Innovative coffee concepts, by household income, May 2019
- Hispanic coffee consumers seek out international-style coffee and innovative RTD
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- Figure 41: Innovative coffee concepts, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
Coffee Attitudes
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- Only three in 10 coffee consumers say they care about the farmers who make their coffee
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- Figure 42: Coffee attitudes, May 2019
- Millennials are trading from ground coffee to whole beans for quality reasons
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- Figure 43: Coffee attitudes, by generation, May 2019
- Affluent consumers are also driving growth of whole bean coffee
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- Figure 44: Coffee attitudes, by income, May 2019
- White consumers who drink coffee think freshly ground coffee tastes better
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- Figure 45: Coffee attitudes, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 52: Multi-outlet sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 53: Multi-outlet sales of single-cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 54: Multi-outlet sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of ready-to-drink coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- TURF methodology
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