Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- 2018 review and 2019 expectations
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Attitudes toward holiday shopping
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Shopping timeframe
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Retailer preferences and drivers
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Planning and shopping behavior
- What you want to know
- What we see
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Winter holiday sales grew in 2018, but were stifled by underperformance in December
- Sales set to increase, but at a slower pace
- Macroeconomic factors bode well for upcoming season, but impact of tariffs yet to be seen
- Condensed shopping timeframe
Market Size and Forecast
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- Historical November/December sales
- Holiday season expected to trump 2018 by nearly $20 billion
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2009-19
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales* in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2009-19
- 2019 year-to-date retail sales
- Volatile sales pattern thus far leads to uncertainty for upcoming holidays
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- Figure 3: Total 2019 monthly US retail sales, May 2019
- Consumer spending during 2018 holidays expected to exceed $850; three out of four dollars spent on gifts
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- Figure 4: Anticipated average expenditures for winter holidays, in current dollars, 2013-18
Market Perspective
Market Factors
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- Consumers are feeling confident about their finances
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- Figure 5: Current financial situation, October 2018
- Figure 6: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-April 2019
- Macroeconomic factors reflect signs of slow growth
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- Figure 7: GDP change from previous period and consumption expenditures, 2007-Q1 2019
- Figure 8: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-March 2019
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- Figure 9: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2007-17
- Figure 10: Consumer Price Index change from previous period, January 2017-March 2019
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- Figure 11: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-April 2019
- Impact of tariffs could lead to price increases
- Presence of children (or lack thereof) could influence spending
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- Figure 12: Households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
- Less time to shop this year
- Amazon offers free one-day delivery to Prime members
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Apparel and ecommerce big winners
- Event-based promotions, email and pop-ups shops among tactics used to attract shoppers’ attention
- Department stores still lagged behind
- Elevated convenience will up the competitive ante
- Tech stays hot
Who Stood Out in 2018?
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- No surprise – Amazon won again!
- Besides Amazon, ecommerce strong across the board
- A resurgence for apparel
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- Figure 13: REI, Black Friday TV ad: OptOutside, One Tree Planted, November 2018
- Pop-up shops lit up the holiday shopping experience
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- Figure 14: The Market @ Macy’s holiday pop-up, November 2018
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- Figure 15: Wayfair holiday pop-up, November 2018
- Even non-retailers get in on Black Friday hype
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- Figure 16: New York Public Library Black Friday ad, New York Times, November 2018
- Mentions of savings, deals and free shipping drove email engagement
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- Figure 17: Amazon email, November 2018
- Figure 18: Bath & Body Works’ candle day email, November 2018
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- Figure 19: Bath & Body Works’ candle day Instagram post, December 2018
- Figure 20: Kohl’s email, November 2018
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- Figure 21: Target email, November 2018
- Figure 22: Walmart email, November 2018
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- Figure 23: Macy’s email, November 2018
- Figure 24: ULTA beauty email, November 2018
Who Struggled?
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- Department stores continued to face challenges
- Site issues plagued some retailers
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- Figure 25: Consumer tweet on J. Crew’s Twitter page, November 2018
What’s Next?
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- Digital layaway programs likely to see gains
- The year of click-and-collect
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- Figure 26: Engagement or interest in option to purchase online and pick up in-store, February 2019
- Familiar trends drive holiday wish lists
- Gifting made easier through registries, tech, personal service
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- Figure 27: Nordstrom customer acquisition email, December 2018
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- Figure 28: GiftNow acquisition emails, Kenneth Cole – February 2019, Saks Fifth Avenue – December 2018
- More active promotion of unconventional gifting occasions
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- Figure 29: Aveda Singles’ Day customer acquisition email, November 2018
- Figure 30: BCBGMAXAZRIA Friendsgiving customer acquisition email, November 2018
- Toys“R”Us re-emerges
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Not all shoppers are the same
- It’s not all about price
- Experiential gifts on the rise
- 2019 set to be another record year for online and mobile sales
- Digital tools play a key role in helping shoppers get organized
- Every day counts this year as the holiday season is condensed
Who’s Shopping?
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- Dimensionalizing shoppers enables precision targeting
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- Figure 31: Winter holiday shopper segments, April 2019
- Experiential Shoppers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 32: Profile of experiential shoppers, April 2019
- Budget Shoppers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 33: Profile of budget shoppers, April 2019
- Disengaged Shoppers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 34: Profile of disengaged shoppers, April 2019
- Efficient Shoppers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 35: Profile of efficient shoppers, April 2019
Consumers’ Affiliations with the Winter Holiday Season
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- Consumers associate the holidays with family and deals
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- Figure 36: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, April 2019
- Parents are optimistic about the time period
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- Figure 37: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, by parental status, April 2019
- Winter holiday shopping is a necessity for most, but not viewed the same by all
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- Figure 38: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping - index, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
Items Purchased in 2018
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- Clothing, gift cards, toys among top items in 2018
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- Figure 39: Holiday purchases, April 2019
- Parents are key buyers, but don’t forget the grandparents
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- Figure 40: Holiday purchases, by parental status by gender, April 2019
- More than four in 10 shoppers buy 4-6 items
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- Figure 41: Repertoire of Holiday purchases, April 2019
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- Figure 42: Cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, by repertoire of Holiday purchases, April 2019
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- Figure 43: Holiday purchases, by cluster of Attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
How and Where Consumers Plan to Shop in 2019
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- In-store preferred channel, but online not far behind
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- Figure 44: Preferred shopping method, April 2019
- Channel consistency matters
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- Figure 45: Attitudes regarding pricing strategies by channel, February 2019
- Mass merchandisers, Amazon, department stores top destinations
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- Figure 46: Planned store types to shop in 2019, April 2019
- Value-oriented stores remain important to consumers of all income levels
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- Figure 47: Plans to shop at mass merchandisers, discount stores and dollar stores in 2019 – Any shopping (net), by household income, April 2019
Shopping Timeframe
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- Although most sales occur in November and December, holiday shopping extends outside that timeframe too
- Power period still dominates
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- Figure 48: Shopping timeframe, April 2019
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- Figure 49: Significance of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, by age, April 2019
- Mid-late December becomes increasingly important
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- Figure 50: Shopping attitudes, April 2019
- Not all men wait until the last minute
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- Figure 51: Shopping timeframe, by gender and age, April 2019
- Six fewer days to shop
- Thinking outside the holiday time period
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- Figure 52: Shopping outside the winter holiday time period, by household income, April 2019
Research and Planning Process
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- Sources of influence
- Word of mouth still holds the most weight
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- Figure 53: Influencers, April 2019
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- Figure 54: Influencers, by age and income, April 2019
- Planning resources
- Online shopping and wish lists play a key role in holiday planning
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- Figure 55: Use of wish lists and other online tools, April 2019
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- Figure 56: Use of wish lists and other online tools, by gender and age, April 2019
- Money-related behaviors
- Shoppers will open wallets for the perfect gift
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- Figure 57: Money-related shopping behaviors, April 2019
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- Figure 58: Money-related shopping behaviors, by gender and age and household income, April 2019
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- Figure 59: Money-related shopping behaviors, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
- Retailer selection
- Retailers can win shoppers through cause-related efforts and transparency
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- Figure 60: Factors that drive retailer choice, April 2019
Attitudes toward Holiday Shopping
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- ‘Tis the season for enjoyment
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- Figure 61: Attitudes toward experiential aspects of shopping, April 2019
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- Figure 62: Attitudes toward types of gifts, by generation and race and Hispanic origin, April 2019
- Shoppers are looking for creative ideas
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- Figure 63: Attitudes toward creativity, April 2019
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- Figure 64: Attitudes toward creativity, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
- Saving time > saving money
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- Figure 65: Attitudes toward shopping process, April 2019
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- Figure 66: Attitudes toward time versus money involved in shopping process, by gender and age, April 2019
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- Figure 67: Attitudes toward shopping process, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Repertoire analysis methodology
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 68: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Figure 69: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures, in current dollars, 2013-18
- Figure 70: Top 10 US holiday season shopping days, ranked by retail ecommerce sales, 2018
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 71: Retailers’ average email read rates, holiday* versus non-holiday** season, December 2018
- Figure 72: Read rates (%) comparison of subject line keywords, January 2019
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 73: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, April 2019
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- Figure 74: Use of wish lists and other online tools, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
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- Figure 75: Top 10 dates for traffic and conversions during holidays - rank, 2018
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- Figure 76: Influencers, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
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