Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Economic overview
- Business health
- Special focus: utilities
- What’s next?
Economic Overview
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- GDP growth slowed to its lowest rate for six years in 2018
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- Figure 1: Annual GDP growth rate, 2010-18
- Bank rate remains at 0.75%
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- Figure 2: Bank rate, 2008-18, by date of adjustment
- CPI rate expected to remain slightly below 2% target over coming months
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- Figure 3: Consumer Price Index, January 2018-March 2019, (12-month rate)
- Average weekly earnings grow at fastest rate since financial crisis
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- Figure 4: Average weekly earnings, total pay, January 2018-February 2019, Great Britain
Business Health
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- UK businesses report steady sales growth
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- Figure 5: UK business turnover, 2018, at the start of the year, by business sector
- Company insolvencies on an upward trajectory
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- Figure 6: Underlying company insolvencies in England and Wales, Q3 2016-Q1 2019
- Brexit uncertainty as well as low confidence and sales growth are holding back business investment
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- Figure 7: UK PNFCs net rate of return, Q3 2016-Q4 2018
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- Figure 8: UK total business investment, Q4 2016-Q4 2018, (chained volume measures and not seasonally-adjusted)
Special Focus: Utilities
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- Trends in household energy consumption
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- Figure 9: Average UK domestic gas and electricity consumption, 2008-17
- Total household expenditure on energy
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- Figure 10: Total UK household expenditure on energy, 2010-17, (£ million)
- The economic contribution of the energy and water and sewerage sectors
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- Figure 11: GVA generated by the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector, 2012/17, (£ million at current price estimates)
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- Figure 12: GVA generated by the water supply and sewerage sector, 2012-17, (£ million at current price estimates)
- Decarbonisation of UK economy drives capital investment in UK energy sector
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- Figure 13: Investment in the electricity and gas industries, 2010-17
- …but investment in clean energy has stalled since 2016 due to changes in government policies
- Investment in water and sewerage industry
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- Figure 14: UK capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, 2015/16-17/18
- Brexit is unlikely to affect energy and environmental policies, but prolonged period of uncertainty could impact investor confidence
What’s Next?
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- Uncertainty continues to cloud businesses’ outlook
- Business confidence remains low
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- Figure 15: Business confidence index, Q1 2018-Q2 2019
- GDP growth expected to remain subdued in 2019
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- Figure 16: Forecast GDP development, 2017-23
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
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