Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The issues
- Limited room to grow
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-23
- The market is cluttered and complex
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- Figure 2: Drivers for frozen treat trial, January 2019
- Consumers are impulse driven – even in planned purchases
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- Figure 3: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, January 2019
- The opportunities
- Don’t forget the grown-ups
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- Figure 4: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, parents and kids, January 2019
- Value-added innovation may cast the widest net
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- Figure 5: Drivers for frozen treat trial, by generation, January 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Slow but steady?
- Novelties, fro-yo on the go
- Food service – friend or foe?
- Consumers pour on plant-based milks
Market Size and Forecast
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- Flat growth expected to continue
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Growth seen in novelties, frozen yogurt/nondairy
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- Figure 8: Total estimated US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2018
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Other channels outpace growth in traditional supermarkets
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- Figure 10: Total US market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Market Perspective
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- Figure 11: Percent of total consumer expenditures for food at home and away from home, 2010-18*
- Figure 12: Top 10 ice cream and frozen desserts/ice cream treat flavors, by menu incidence, Q418
- Ice cream with a kick?
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- Figure 13: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by functional claim, 2016-18
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Market Factors
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- Continued concerns about health
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- Figure 14: Approaches to healthy eating, May 2018
- Snacking on the rise
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- Figure 15: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
- Frothy market for plant-based, non-dairy milks could point the way
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- Figure 16: Dairy and non-dairy milk market of total milk market, 2013-23
- Shifting household make up could spell change for brands
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- Figure 17: Population by age, 2013-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leader board remains the same in a static market
- Frozen novelties, non-dairy
- Eden’s Halo Top loses its shine?
- Ice cream that gets the job done
Company and Brand Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
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- Unilever, Nestlé lead in relatively stable market
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- Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Working?
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- Frozen Novelties flourish
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by select brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 21: Blue Bunny TV Advertisement: “Hands Full Version”
- Cutting cows out of the equation
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- Figure 22: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by dairy-free and vegan claims, 2016-18
- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by select brands with dairy-free frozen treats, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 24: So Delicious TV Advertisement: “Mouthful”
What’s Struggling?
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- Halo Top: Flavor of the month?
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- Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of Halo Top, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 26: Halo Top TV Advertisement: “Love”
What’s Next?
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- Ice cream that works in addition to play
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- Figure 27: Launches of ice cream and frozen novelties, by functional claim, 2016-18
- Ice cream that’s feeling its oats
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Nearly universal penetration
- Significant variation in purchase by demographic
- Consumers driven by cravings, snacking
- Younger adults buy on impulse
- Flavors the key factor
- Impulse buying a key factor
Frozen Treat Purchase
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- Everyone still screams for ice cream
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- Figure 28: Frozen treat purchase – Types, February 2019
- Young adults, parents, buy broadest assortments
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- Figure 29: Frozen treat purchase – Types, by age and parental status, February 2019
- Name brands, pint sizes prevail
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- Figure 30: Frozen treat purchase – Varieties, February 2019
- Smaller sizes, BFY options more popular with the young
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- Figure 31: Frozen treat purchase – Varieties, by generation, February 2019
- Needs change for parents and larger families
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- Figure 32: Frozen treat purchase – Varieties, by parental status and household size, February 2019
Reasons for Frozen Treat Purchase
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- Snacking, current cravings drive purchase of novelties and pints
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- Figure 33: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, February 2019
- Sandwiches satisfy cravings for men, calorie counting for women
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- Figure 34: Reasons for purchase of ice cream sandwiches, by gender and age, February 2019
- Women value portion control for pints
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- Figure 35: Reasons for purchase of ice cream pint, February 2019
- Parents prefer novelties
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- Figure 36: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, by parents, February 2019
Frozen Treat Shopping Behaviors
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- Value matters more than price?
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- Figure 37: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, January 2019
- Older consumers more promotion driven
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- Figure 38: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, January 2019
- Low-income consumers actually less price sensitive
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- Figure 39: Frozen treat shopping behaviors, by household income, January 2019
Frozen Treat Decision-making Process
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- Flavors best place to experiment
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- Figure 40: Frozen treat decision-making process, January 2019
- Older people most brand loyal
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- Figure 41: Frozen treat decision-making process, by age and parental status, January 2019
- Environment, new formats compelling to experimenters
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- Figure 42: Frozen treat decision-making process – Same brands and different brands, by frozen treat making process, January 2019
Drivers for Frozen Treat Trial
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- How much innovation is too much?
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- Figure 43: Drivers for frozen treat trial, January 2019
- Gen Z willing to experiment; seniors stick with tried and true
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- Figure 44: Drivers for frozen treat trial, by age, January 2019
- New textures, small sizes could drive purchase interest
- Methodology
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- Figure 45: TURF analysis – Drivers for frozen treat trial, February 2019
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- Figure 46: TURF analysis – Drivers for frozen treat trial, February 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 53: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 54: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 56: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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