Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Sales of desserts flat by value in 2018
- Inflation and premium desserts will drive low value growth
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of desserts, 2013-23
- Sales of frozen desserts grow
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- Figure 2: UK value sales of desserts, by segment, 2013-18
- Sugar and calories remain in the spotlight
- Decline projected in number of core younger users
- Companies and brands
- Chilled desserts dominated by own-label
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK chilled desserts retail market, by value, 2018/19*
- Bigger branded presence in ambient desserts
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value, 2018/19*
- Premium and indulgence claims are a big focus in desserts
- Gluten-free and vegan claims increase
- The consumer
- Desserts face competition for the traditional occasion
- Vast majority eat desserts but not very frequently
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- Figure 5: Frequency of eating desserts in the last 3 months, by type, February 2019
- Strong demand for traditional treats with a twist
- Healthier desserts pose a big challenge
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- Figure 6: Interest in dessert products, February 2019
- Strong interest in personalisation/customisation
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- Figure 7: Behaviours relating to desserts, February 2019
- Majority of people will pay more for indulgent desserts
- Visual appeal and unique flavours give standout
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- Figure 8: Attributes that make a dessert worth paying more for, February 2019
- Shop-bought desserts highly acceptable for guests
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards desserts, February 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Healthier desserts and smaller single-serve products offer ways of boosting usage frequency
- The facts
- The implications
- Differentiation is needed to attract people away from dessert alternatives
- The facts
- The implications
- Indulgent ingredients and visual appeal are the best ways for desserts to add value
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales of desserts flat by value in 2018
- Health concerns and competition will hold back growth
- Inflation and premium desserts will drive low value growth
- Sales of frozen desserts grow
- Sugar and calories remain in the spotlight
- The accepted role of treats supports dessert sales
- Competition from home-made desserts and other treats
- Brexit uncertainties make price trends difficult to predict
- Risk of higher inflation putting a squeeze on spending
- Decline projected in number of core younger users
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of desserts flat by value in 2018
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- Figure 10: UK value and volume retail sales of desserts, 2013-23
- The future
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- Figure 11: Forecast of UK value sales of desserts, 2013-23
- Figure 12: Forecast of UK volume sales of desserts, 2013-23
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Sales of frozen desserts grow
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- Figure 13: UK value and volume sales of desserts, by segment, 2013-18
Market Drivers
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- Sugar and calories remain in the spotlight
- The accepted role of treats in a balanced diet supports sales of desserts
- Competition from home-made desserts and other treats
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- Figure 14: Agreement with statement “I often make home-made desserts”, by age, February 2019
- Brexit uncertainties make price trends difficult to predict
- Decline projected in number of core younger users
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- Figure 15: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Chilled desserts dominated by own-label
- Own-label drives growth in frozen desserts
- Chilled desserts see most NPD activity
- Premium and indulgence claims are a big focus in desserts
- New flavour twists for traditional desserts
- Gluten-free and vegan claims increase
- L/N/R sugar or fat claims a rarity
- Few desserts meet 100-calorie threshold
- Decline in spending on advertising desserts
- Ambrosia the most trusted brand
Market Share
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- Chilled desserts dominated by own-label
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- Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2018/19
- Little change in sales of ambient desserts
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- Figure 17: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume 2017/18-2018/19
- Own-label drives growth in frozen desserts
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- Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen desserts retail market, by value and volume 2017/18-2018/19
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Chilled desserts continue to see the most NPD activity
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- Figure 19: Percentage share of new product launches in the UK desserts market, by segment, 2014-18
- Premium and indulgence claims are a big focus in desserts
- Christmas show-stoppers use festive designs
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- Figure 20: Examples of own-label dessert launches for Christmas, 2018
- Indulgent ingredients are a big theme for desserts
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- Figure 21: Examples of premium own-label dessert launches with an emphasis on indulgence, 2018
- Indulgence in single-serve desserts
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- Figure 22: Examples of single-serve dessert launches, 2018
- New flavour twists for traditional desserts
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- Figure 23: Examples of launches of desserts with new flavour twists, 2018
- Asian desserts remain something of a rarity
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- Figure 24: Examples of Asian cuisines dessert launches, 2018
- Gluten-free and vegan claims increase
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- Figure 25: Proportion of new launches in the UK desserts market making gluten free and vegan/no animal ingredients claims, 2014-18
- Various specialist brands have carved a foothold in the market
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- Figure 26: Examples of gluten-free, dairy free and vegan dessert launches, 2018 and 2019
- Vegan desserts struggle – on average – to be seen as tasty and exciting
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- Figure 27: Perception map of attribute performance of chilled and frozen desserts making vegan claims in comparison to other chilled and frozen desserts in the UK desserts market, April 2018-April 2019
- Few examples of L/N/R sugar or fat claims
- Healthier desserts warrant further attention
- Jellies spotlight their sugar credentials
- Fruit-based and free-from desserts call out sugar
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- Figure 28: Examples of L/N/R sugar claims in dessert launches, 2018 and 2019
- L/N/R fat claims are few and far between, few desserts meet 100-calorie threshold
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- Figure 29: Examples of desserts containing less than 100 calories per serving, 2018
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Continued decline in spending on desserts advertising
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- Figure 30: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on desserts*, by sub-category, 2015-18
- Retailers account for bulk of desserts advertising
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- Figure 31: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on desserts*, by top 10 advertisers, 2015-18
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- Figure 32: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on desserts*, by quarter, 2018
- Brands cut back on advertising
- Christmas own-label campaigns dominate retailer spending
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 33: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, March 2019
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 34: Key metrics for selected brands, March 2019
- Brand attitudes: Ambrosia is the most trust brand
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- Figure 35: Attitudes, by brand, March 2019
- Brand personality: Hartley’s, Angel Delight and Gü seen as the most fun brands
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- Figure 36: Brand personality – Macro image, March 2019
- Gü stands out as most indulgent and special brand
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- Figure 37: Brand personality – Micro image, March 2019
- Brand analysis
- Ambrosia is the most traditional and comforting brand
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- Figure 38: User profile of Ambrosia, March 2019
- Gü is seen as most innovative and high-quality brand
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- Figure 39: User profile of Gü, March 2019
- Aunt Bessie’s Desserts is a family brand for more than four in ten
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- Figure 40: User profile of Aunt Bessie’s Desserts, March 2019
- Bonne Maman Desserts is the least used or known brand
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- Figure 41: User profile of Bonne Maman Desserts, March 2019
- Müller Rice is seen more widely as healthy than others
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- Figure 42: User profile of Müller Rice, March 2019
- Hartley’s Jelly is among the most fun brands
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- Figure 43: User profile of Hartley’s Jelly, March 2019
- Angel Delight has highest proportion of lapsed users
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- Figure 44: User profile of Angel Delight, March 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Desserts face competition for the traditional occasion
- Vast majority eat desserts but not very frequently
- Strong demand for traditional treats with a twist
- Healthier desserts pose a big challenge
- Strong interest in personalisation/customisation
- Many people limit their eating of desserts
- Majority of people will pay more for indulgent desserts
- Visual appeal and unique flavours give standout
- Shop-bought desserts highly acceptable for guests
- Single-serve desserts cater well for different tastes
Food and Drink Typically Eaten/Drunk after the Main Course/Dish of a Meal
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- Desserts face competition for the traditional occasion
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- Figure 45: Food and drink typically eaten/drunk after the main course or dish of a meal, February 2019
- Fruit and yogurt also compete with desserts
Usage of Desserts
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- Vast majority of people eat desserts
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- Figure 46: Usage of different types of desserts in last 3 months, February 2019
- Desserts are not eaten very frequently
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- Figure 47: Frequency of eating desserts in the last 3 months, by type, February 2019
Interest in Products
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- Strong demand for traditional treats with a twist
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- Figure 48: Interest in dessert products, February 2019
- Make more of love of world cuisines in desserts
- Healthier desserts pose a big challenge
- Mini desserts offer one answer for cutting calories
Behaviours Relating to Desserts
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- Strong interest in personalisation/customisation
- Dessert kits appeal to 40%
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- Figure 49: Behaviours relating to desserts, February 2019
- Many people limit their eating of desserts
Attributes Worth Paying More For
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- Majority of people will pay more for indulgent desserts
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- Figure 50: Attributes that make a dessert worth paying more for, February 2019
- Quality of ingredients helps justify higher price
- Visual appeal and unique flavours give standout
Attitudes towards Desserts
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- Shop-bought desserts highly acceptable for guests
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- Figure 51: Attitudes towards desserts, February 2019
- Taste is more important than healthiness in desserts for 59%
- Single-serve desserts cater well for different tastes
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of desserts, 2018-23
- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of desserts, 2018-23
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 54: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume 2017/18-2018/19
- Figure 55: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen desserts retail market, by value and volume 2017/18-2018/19
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- Figure 56: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK chilled desserts retail market, by value and volume 2017/18-2018/19
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 57: New product launches in the UK desserts market, by claim (top 30*), 2014-18
- Figure 58: Percentage share of new product launches in the UK desserts market, by branded vs. private label, 2014-18
- Figure 59: Percentage share of new product launches in the UK desserts market, by company, 2014-18
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- Figure 60: Attribute performance of chilled and frozen desserts making vegan claims in comparison to chilled and frozen desserts not making vegan claims in the UK desserts market, April 2018-April 2019
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