Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Britain today
- Population continues to grow
- Uncertainty has slowed down GDP growth…
- Unemployment is down, real wages are up
- Most people’s finances remain robust
- Brexit concerns have increased with time running out for a deal
- The consumer
- Shoppers most conscious of rising expenditure on food
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- Figure 1: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, January 2019
- The savvy shopper returns
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- Figure 2: Reasons why people spent less across all categories (netted across all sectors), January 2016-January 2019
- Consumers most ethically-conscious when buying FMCG goods
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- Figure 3: Ethical consideration taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019
- Corporate ethics: a semantic shift
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- Figure 4: Ethical considerations taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019 vs May 2015
- Misuse of personal data; an ethical issue
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- Figure 5: Behaviours that people consider would make a business untrustworthy, January 2019
- A nation of local business lovers
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- Figure 6: Correspondence Analysis - Words/phrases associated with different types of businesses, January 2019, January 2019
- What we think
Britain Today – What You Need to Know
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- Population continues to grow
- Shifting the focus to older children
- The UK’s generational make-up
- Uncertainty has slowed down GDP growth…
- …and the housing market has started to stall
- Unemployment is down, real wages are up
- Most people’s finances remain robust
- Brexit concerns have increased with time running out for a deal
The People
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- Population continues to grow
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- Figure 7: Trends in the UK population, 2003-23
- Senior population proves leading growth factor
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- Figure 8: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
- Shifting the focus to older children
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- Figure 9: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-17
- Marketers focus on Millennials and Baby Boomers…
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- Figure 10: Generational structure of the UK population (projected), 2019
- …but smaller generational groups prove of growing importance
The Economy
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- GDP growth held back by Brexit uncertainty
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- Figure 11: Quarterly % change in UK GDP, Q1 2012-Q4 2018
- House price growth has stalled
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- Figure 12: Average house prices, UK, January 2012-December 2018
- Unemployment is at a decades-long low…
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- Figure 13: Employment and unemployment, by gender, 2013-18
- …and workers are enjoying real wage rises
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- Figure 14: Headline CPI inflation (12-month percentage change), vs average weekly earnings (3-month average), January 2013-January 2019
- Financial wellbeing has slipped but is still healthy
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- Figure 15: Financial wellbeing index, January 2013-January 2019
- Most are confident about the year ahead
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- Figure 16: Consumer financial confidence for the coming year, July 2017-January 2019
Consumers’ Response to the EU Referendum
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- Brexit concerns increase as negotiations come to a head
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- Figure 17: Expected impact of UK vote to leave the EU on wider economy and personal finances, January 2019
- Worries have grown over savings and investments…
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- Figure 18: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum on personal financial factors, December 2017-January 2019
- …and the housing market
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- Figure 19: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum on macroeconomic factors, December 2017-January 2019
- Significant gender differences
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- Figure 20: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum, by gender, January 2018
Consumer Expenditure – What You Need to Know
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- Consumer spending up 4%
- Outlook for the next five years
- Consumers loosen their belts and increase spending on food
- Alcohol moderation trend drives innovation
- Own-label BPC cuts into consumer spend
- Brexit anxieties undermine demand for holidays…
- …but the leisure market continues to boom…
- Consumers limit spending on eating out
- Price promotion culture hinder fashion sales
Consumer Expenditure Overview
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- Consumer spending up 4%
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- Figure 21: Consumer expenditure, by sector (£billion), 2018
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- Figure 22: Consumer expenditure growth, by sector, 2017-18
- Outlook for the next five years
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- Figure 23: Best- and worst-case forecast total value sales, 2013-23
- Top performers over the next five years
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- Figure 24: Categories set to grow at a faster rate than total consumer spending projections over the next five years, at current prices, by % growth, 2018-23
- Financial services sector projected to fare well
- Slower growth sectors
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- Figure 25: Consumer sectors set to grow at a below-average rate, at current prices, by % growth, 2018-23
Food (Retail Market)
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 26: UK food retail market value, 2013-18
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- Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the food retail market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Chilled ready meals
- Dairy-/lactose-free
- Pot snacks
- Fermented foods
- Losers for 2019
- Savoury biscuits
- Beef and lamb
- Cow’s milk
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 28: Changes in spending habits on in-home food in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Healthy eating
- Meat-free foods
- Ready meals
- Milk
- Savoury biscuits
Alcoholic Drinks (Retail Market)
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 29: UK alcoholic drinks retail market value, 2013-18
- Figure 30: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic drinks retail market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Gin
- Cider
- Losers for 2019
- Champagne
- Vodka
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 31: Changes in spending habits on alcoholic drinks in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Beer
- Wine
- Spirits
- Cider
- Alcoholic drinks review
Non-alcoholic Drinks (Retail Market)
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 32: UK non-alcoholic drinks (retail market) value, 2013-18
- Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecast retail value sales of the non-alcoholic drinks retail market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Adult soft drinks
- Smoothies
- Losers for 2019
- Tea
- Fruit juice
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 34: Changes in spending habits on non-alcoholic drinks in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Attitudes to low/no/reduced sugar soft drinks
- Soft drinks review
- What children drink
Beauty and Personal Care
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 35: UK beauty and personal care market value, 2013-18
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- Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Suncare
- Colour cosmetics
- Body, hand and footcare
- Losers for 2019
- Men’s facial skincare and haircare
- Shaving and hair removal
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 37: Changes in spending habits on beauty products and toiletries in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Colour cosmetics
- Hand, body and footcare
- Shaving and hair removal
- Men’s facial skincare
- Men’s haircare
OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 38: UK OTC and pharmaceuticals market value, 2013-18
- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Allergy remedies
- OTC analgesics
- Losers for 2019
- Smoking cessation
- Sexual health
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 40: Changes in spending habits on healthcare products in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Smoking cessation and E-cigarettes
- OTC analgesics
- Managing stress and wellbeing
- Managing a healthy lifestyle
Household Care
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 41: UK household care market value, 2013-18
- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the household care market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Air care
- Household paper products
- Losers for 2019
- Laundry detergents and fabric care
- Dishwashing products
- Hard surface cleaning and care products
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 43: Changes in spending habits on household care products in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Air care
- Dishwashing products
- Household paper products
- Laundry detergents and fabric care
Holidays
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 44: UK holidays market value, 2013-18
- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales^ of domestic^^ and overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Sea and river cruises
- The domestic holiday market
- Destinations with a favourable exchange rate
- The luxury travel market
- Losers for 2019
- Overseas business travel
- Skiing holidays
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 46: Changes in spending habits on holidays in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Cruises
- Staycations
- All-inclusive
Leisure
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 47: UK leisure market value, 2013-18
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the leisure market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Online gambling
- Health and fitness clubs
- Losers for 2019
- Nightclubs
- Public health and fitness
- Betting shops
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 49: Changes in spending habits on leisure in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Online gambling
- Health and fitness clubs
- Nightclubs
- Public leisure centres/swimming pools
Foodservice
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 50: UK foodservice market value, 2013-18
- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the foodservice market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Dark kitchens
- Spin-off delivery brands
- Southeast Asian cuisines
- Losers for 2019
- Specialist takeaways
- Burger and chicken restaurants
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 52: Changes in spending habits on eating out in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Menu trends
- Pizza and Italian restaurants
- Coffee shops
Transport
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 53: UK transport market value, 2013-18
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- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transport market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Alternatively fuelled cars
- Air routes to low-cost destinations
- Losers for 2019
- New and used cars
- Diesel cars
- Business air travellers
- Key consumer findings
- Cars
- Airlines
Fashion
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 55: UK clothing, footwear and accessories market value, 2013-18
- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the clothing, footwear and accessories market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Womenswear
- Underwear
- Losers for 2019
- Childrenswear
- Menswear
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 57: Changes in spending habits on clothing and accessories in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Clothing
- Underwear
- Footwear
- Childrenswear
Home and Garden
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 58: UK home and garden market value, 2013-18
- Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the home and garden market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Home accessories
- Garden products
- Losers for 2019
- DIY big box specialists
- Boxed mattress brands
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 60: Changes in spending habits on home and garden products in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Furniture
- DIY
- Gardens
- Homewares
Newsagents’ Goods
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 61: UK newsagents’ goods market value, 2013-18
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- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the newsagents’ goods market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Key consumer findings
- Seasonal shopping
- Cigarettes
- Lotteries
- Newspapers
- Magazines
- Greetings cards
Housing
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 63: UK housing market value, 2013-18
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- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the housing market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Changing consumer habits
- Key consumer findings
- Mortgages
- Mortgage advice
- Property as an Investment
Personal Finance
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 65: UK personal finance market value, 2013-18
- Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the personal finance market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Small business banking
- Insurance and innovation
- Losers for 2019
- The lifetime ISA
- High cost lending
- Changing consumer habits
- Key consumer findings
- Small business banking
- Consumers and insurance innovation
- Unsecured loans
- Consumers, saving and investing
Technology and Communications
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 67: UK technology and communications market value, 2013-18
- Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Mintel predictions
- Winners for 2019
- Video streaming services
- Losers for 2019
- Pay-TV
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 69: Changes in spending habits on technology and communications in 2018, January 2019
- Key consumer findings
- Desktop, laptops and tablets
- Games consoles
- TVs
- Wearables
- Virtual reality
- PC, mobile and voice
- Bundled communications
Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 70: UK miscellaneous expenditure market value, 2013-18
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- Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the miscellaneous expenditure market, at current prices, 2013-23
- Winners for 2019
- Optical goods
- Funerals
- Pet food and pet care retailing
- Losers for 2019
- Disposable nappies and wipes
- Key consumer findings
- Optical goods
- Pet food and services
- Nappies and baby wipes
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Shoppers most conscious of rising expenditure on food
- Consumers cut spending on eating out
- The savvy shopper returns
- Beauty bargain hunting
- Consumers most ethically-conscious when buying FMCG goods…
- …but an evolving definition of corporate ethics is gaining pace
- Misuse of personal data; an ethical issue
- Tax avoidance proves leading cause for concern for over-65s
- Few deem multinational businesses good for the UK economy
- A nation of local business lovers
Changes in Spending Habits
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- Consumers most conscious of rising expenditure on food
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- Figure 72: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, January 2019
- Gen Z drive spending on experiences…
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- Figure 73: Generation Z spending more in the last 12 months, vs average, by category, January 2019
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- Figure 74: Selfridges ‘Bowl’ in-store skate park, February 2019
- …and pose opportunity for the future of luxury fashion
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- Figure 75: Gucci Spring Summer 2019, February 2019
- Consumers limit spending on eating out
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- Figure 76: Difference between proportions of people spending more and less, January 2019 vs January 2018
Reasons Why People Spent Less
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- The savvy shopper returns
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- Figure 77: Reasons why people spent less across all categories (netted across all sectors), January 2016-January 2019
- The joys of bargain hunting
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- Figure 78: Reasons why people spent less in 2018 – Financial factors, by category, January 2019
- Beauty bargain hunters
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- Figure 79: Proportion of people who spent less by “looking for the best deal”, by category, January 2019
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- Figure 80: Amazon ‘Find Beauty’, 2019
- Are health concerns cutting into alcohol expenditure?
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- Figure 81: Proportion of people who spent less due to non-financial factors, by category, January 2019
Ethical Buying Considerations
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- Consumers most ethically-conscious when buying FMCG goods
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- Figure 82: Ethical consideration taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019
- Beauty and personal care proves most ethically driven purchase
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- Figure 83: Launches in across the beauty and personal care category carrying ‘ethical – animal’ and ‘ethical – environmentally-friendly packaging’ claims, 2015-18
- Animal welfare is a major consumer concern
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- Figure 84: Head & Shoulders Beach Plastic Bottle Momentum for Change Award, October 2017
- Corporate ethics: a semantic shift
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- Figure 85: Ethical consideration taken into account, by retail sector, January 2019 vs May 2015
- Are people making more differentiation between “ethical” and “environmental” concerns?
- Ethical decision making follows traditional gender stereotypes
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- Figure 86: Ethical consideration taken into account, by sector and gender, January 2019
- Marketing re-enforcing the gender gap in ethical behaviour
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- Figure 87: Schweppes’ ‘The Dress for Respect’ campaign, November 2018
Factors Undermining Trust in Businesses
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- Misuse of personal data; an ethical issue
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- Figure 88: Behaviours that people consider would make a business untrustworthy, January 2019
- GDPR has brought privacy to the fore
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- Figure 89: C4 Viewers Promise Campaign, 2016
- Tax avoidance proves leading cause for concern for over-65s
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- Figure 90: Proportion of adults who cite “tax avoidance” as one of their top factors that they consider to make a business untrustworthy, by age and household income, January 2019
- People think companies should pay their fair share of taxes…
- …but many blame legislators more than the companies themselves
- The importance of customer service
Perceptions of Businesses
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- Few deem multinational businesses good for the UK economy
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- Figure 91: Correspondence Analysis – Words/phrases associated with different types of businesses, January 2019
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- Figure 92: Words/phrases associated with different types of businesses, January 2019
- A nation of local business lovers
- Are multinationals killing Britain’s sense of community?
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- Figure 93: Facebook UK ‘Let's Get To Work’ campaign, March 2018
- Bringing local businesses into the supply chain
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- Figure 94: Amazon ‘Storefronts’ initiative, September 2018
- Meeting a higher ethical standard
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Correspondence analysis
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – Food (Retail Market)
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- Figure 95: UK retail value sales of food (retail market), at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Alcoholic Drinks (Retail Market)
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- Figure 96: UK retail value sales of alcoholic drinks (retail market), at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Non-alcoholic Drinks (Retail Market)
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- Figure 97: UK retail value sales of non-alcoholic drinks, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Beauty and Personal Care
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- Figure 98: UK retail value sales of beauty and personal care products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- Figure 99: UK retail value sales of OTC and pharmaceuticals, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Household Care
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- Figure 100: UK retail value sales of household care products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Fashion
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- Figure 101: UK retail value sales of clothing and accessories, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Holidays
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- Figure 102: UK holidays market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Leisure
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- Figure 103: UK leisure market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Foodservice
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- Figure 104: UK retail value sales of foodservice, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Home and Garden
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- Figure 105: UK retail value sales for home and garden products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Transport
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- Figure 106: UK transport market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Newsagents’ Goods
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- Figure 107: UK retail value sales of newsagents’ goods, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Personal Finances
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- Figure 108: UK retail value sales of personal finance products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Housing
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- Figure 109: UK housing market, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Technology and Communication
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- Figure 110: UK retail value sales of technology and communication products, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- Figure 111: Miscellaneous expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2013-23
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