Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The issues
- Forecast for mobile phones stagnant before introduction of 5G spurs growth
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- Figure 1: Total US mobile phone sales and fan chart forecast, in units, 2013-23
- Strong brand loyalty makes it difficult for challengers
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- Figure 2: Smartphone brands considered, by smartphone brand owned, January 2019
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- Figure 3: Smartphone brands considered, by smartphone brand owned, January 2019
- A better camera alone isn’t enough for smartphone owners to switch brands
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- Figure 4: Attitudes toward smartphones – Switching and brands, by smartphone brands owned January 2019
- The opportunities
- Four in 10 plan on purchasing within the next year
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- Figure 5: Smartphone purchase intent, January 2019
- Engagement with smartphone accessories correlates to purchase intent
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- Figure 6: Smartphone purchase intent, by count of smartphone accessories used, January 2019
- English-speaking Hispanic Millennials a critical target for tech products
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- Figure 7: Smartphone purchase intent and attitudes, by Millennials and Hispanic origin, January 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Unit sales forecast to continue downward trend through 2020
- Smartphone penetration eclipses 80%
- Apple sees record number of battery swaps in 2018
- Trade-in programs hope to minimize impact of refurbished market
Market Size and Forecast
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- Downward trend forecasted until next generation of phone tech
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- Figure 8: Total US mobile phone sales and fan chart forecast, in units, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US mobile phone sales and forecast, in units, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Feature phone sales account for just 7% in 2018
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- Figure 10: Total US mobile phone sales, in units, by segment, 2013-18
- Smartphone penetration north of 80% in 2018
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- Figure 11: Mobile phone ownership and type of phone used, 2011-18
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- Figure 12: Smartphone users, by household income, 2012-18
- Figure 13: Mobile phone ownership and type of phone used (among internet users), 2011-18
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- Figure 14: Smartphone users, by household income (among internet users), 2012-18
Market Perspective
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- Impact of 5G on mobile devices is still too early to determine
- 5G rollout could link network providers with specific brands
- More than half of US households no longer have access to a landline
- Apple replaces nearly 11 million iPhone batteries in 2018
Market Factors
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- Trade disputes bring uncertainty and potential price increases
- Political pressure limits Huawei’s presence in the US
- Refurbished second-hand market can impact new phone market
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- Figure 15: Sprint iPhone X upgrade retention email, December 2018
- Figure 16: Apple iPhone Xr upgrade retention email, part 1, December 2018
- Figure 17: Apple iPhone Xr upgrade retention email, part 2, December 2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Apple’s iPhone still the king of the hill
- Apple and Samsung top repeat consideration among current owners
- Mobile gaming ready to take the next step
- Chinese companies like Huawei face political hurdles in US
Company and Brand Market Share of Mobile Phones
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- Apple iPhone user market share growth stops in 2018
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- Figure 18: Brand of smartphone, by mobile phone users, 2012-18
What’s Working?
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- Apple has the most loyal smartphone owners
- Google garnering significant interest among smartphone shoppers
What’s Struggling?
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- Apple will no longer report unit sales on iPhones
- Alternative non-carrier brands get little to no consideration
What’s Next?
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- 5G technology will refresh buying demand
- Foldable touchscreens begin to enter the market
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- Figure 19: Video of Royole Flexpai demo at CES 2019, January 2019
- Mobile gaming could attract a new type of gaming consumer to the smartphone market
- Smart home products, accessories could impact smartphone purchasing
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Apple commands majority of the market
- High accessory usage correlates with purchase intent
- Smartphone owners don’t want to switch operating systems
- More than half of non-shoppers are happy with their current phones
Smartphone Ownership
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- Smartphone ownership nearing universality
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- Figure 20: Smartphone ownership, January 2019
Smartphone Brands Owned
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- Apple and Samsung command majority of the smartphone market
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- Figure 21: Smartphone brands owned, January 2019
- Apple most popular among younger women
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- Figure 22: Smartphone brands owned – Apple, by gender and age, January 2019
- Apple draws high-end market, LG draws budget shoppers
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- Figure 23: Smartphone brands owned – Apple, Samsung, LG, by household income, January 2019
Smartphone Accessories
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- Audio and protection top uses among consumers
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- Figure 24: Smartphone accessories, January 2019
- Younger higher-income consumers key to new device adoption
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- Figure 25: Smartphone accessories – Select items, by age and household income, January 2019
- Gamers like to accessorize their tech
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- Figure 26: Smartphone accessories, by gaming profiles, January 2019
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- Figure 27: Samsung Galaxy Note9 Fortnite pre-order promotion, acquisition email, August 2018
Smartphone Accessories – Repertoire Analysis
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- Half the market uses three or more accessories with their smartphones
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- Figure 28: Repertoire analysis, smartphone accessories, January 2019
- Number of accessories used correlates with age, gender, and income
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- Figure 29: Number of accessories used, by gender and age, January 2019
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- Figure 30: Number of accessories used, by age and income, January 2019
- One third of Hispanic smartphone owners use five or more accessories
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- Figure 31: Repertoire analysis of smartphone accessories used, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2019
- Users of multiple accessories are more likely to buy and shop different brands
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- Figure 32: Smartphone purchase intent, by repertoire of smartphone accessories used, January 2019
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- Figure 33: Smartphone brands considered, by repertoire of smartphone accessories used, January 2019
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- Figure 34: Attitudes toward smartphones, by repertoire of smartphone accessories used, January 2019
Smartphone Purchase Intent
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- Four in 10 plan to purchase within the next year
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- Figure 35: Smartphone purchase intent, January 2019
- Youngest consumers show highest purchase intent
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- Figure 36: Purchase intent – Within the next year / in the next three months, by gender and age, January 2019
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- Figure 37: Purchase intent – Within the next year, by generation, January 2019
- Non-Apple owners more likely to be in the market
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- Figure 38: Purchase intent – Within the next year / two years, by smartphone brands owned, January 2019
- Opportunity to partner with console gaming
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- Figure 39: Smartphone purchase intent, by gaming profiles, January 2019
- English-speaking Hispanic population shows higher purchase intent
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- Figure 40: Smartphone purchase intent, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2019
Smartphone Brands Considered
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- Apple and Samsung lead for consideration among in-market shoppers
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- Figure 41: Smartphone brands considered, January 2019
- Whopping 97% of Apple owners considering staying with the brand
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- Figure 42: Smartphone brands considered, by smartphone brands owned, January 2019
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- Figure 43: Smartphone brands considered, by smartphone brand owned, January 2019
- Apple has greatest consideration among youngest iGen demographic
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- Figure 44: Smartphone brands considered, by generation, January 2019
- English-speaking Hispanic Millennials considering the most brands
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- Figure 45: Smartphone brands considered, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2019
Desired Features
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- Battery length and durability top consumer desires
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- Figure 46: Desired features, January 2019
- Parents and younger shoppers looking for a better camera
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- Figure 47: Desired features, by gender and age, January 2019
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- Figure 48: Desired features, by parental status, January 2019
- Figure 49: Smartphone brands considered, by desired features – Better camera (NET), January 2019
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- Figure 50: Google Pixel 3 print advertisement, November 2018
- Samsung succeeds with shoppers seeking gaming and virtual reality
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- Figure 51: Smartphone brands considered, by desired features, January 2019
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- Figure 52: Samsung Galaxy S8 virtual reality informational email, part 1, January 2018
- Figure 53: Samsung Galaxy S8 virtual reality informational email, part 2, January 2018
- TURF Analysis
- Methodology
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- Figure 54: TURF analysis of desired features, January 2019
Reasons for Not Planning to Buy
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- Phone satisfaction tops consumer reasons for not buying
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- Figure 55: Reasons for not planning to buy, January 2019
- Satisfaction with current phone increases with age
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- Figure 56: Reasons for not buying, by age, January 2019
Attitudes toward Smartphones
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- Consumers hesitant to switch brands
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- Figure 57: Attitudes toward smartphones – Switching and brands, by smartphone brands owned, January 2019
- Majority of 18-24s think they spend too much time on their phones
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- Figure 58: Attitudes toward smartphones – Time, by age, January 2019
- Younger generations buy into biometric security
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- Figure 59: Attitudes toward smartphones – Biometrics, by generations, January 2019
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- Figure 60: Desired features, by attitudes toward smartphones – Biometrics, January 2019
- Gender and age the determining factors behind size preference
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- Figure 61: Attitudes toward smartphone size, by gender and age, January 2019
Attitudes toward Smartphones – Cluster Analysis
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- Cluster analysis
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- Figure 62: Cluster analysis of attitudes toward smartphones, January 2019
- Gender and age split cluster groups
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- Figure 63: Gender and age distribution, by cluster groups, January 2019
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- Figure 64: Cluster group distribution, by gender and age, January 2019
- Tech Phone-atics
- Characteristics
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- Figure 65: Attitudes toward smartphones – Select items, by cluster groups, January 2019
- Opportunities
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- Figure 66: Smartphone purchase intent, by cluster groups, January 2019
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- Figure 67: Attitudes toward mobile networks – 5G, by cluster groups, January 2018
- Empty Smart Nesters
- Characteristics
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- Figure 68: Attitudes toward smartphones – Time, by cluster groups, January 2019
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- Figure 69: Smartphone brand owned, by cluster groups, January 2019
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward smartphones – Select items, by cluster groups, January 2019
- Opportunities
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- Figure 71: Attitudes toward smartphones – Select items, by cluster groups, January 2019
- Simple Phone Folk
- Characteristics
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- Figure 72: Attitudes toward smartphones – Select items, by cluster groups, January 2019
- Opportunities
- Tech-Life Balancers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
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