Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Consumer engagement with private label in a holding pattern
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- Figure 1: Store brand purchase trend, November 2018
- Improved economy could signify a peak for private label, for now
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- Figure 2: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of private label food and drink, at current prices, 2013-23
- Disposable income rise could spell trouble ahead
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- Figure 3: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2018
- Figure 4: Disposable personal income change from previous period, Jan 2017-Oct 2018
- Consumers not trying new private label products
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- Figure 5: Priorities for food shopping, November 2018
- The opportunities
- Emphasizing, increasing awareness of store brand improvements
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- Figure 6: Reasons for increased purchase of store brand food/drinks, November 2018
- Expanding appeal among fresh-oriented categories
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- Figure 7: Categories where store brands are preferred, November 2018
- Potential in craft-style beer and premium alcohol
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Private label sales may have reached peak for now
- Steady sales for drink, as food sales dip
- Improved economic outlook presents distinct challenges
Market Size and Forecast
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- Private label sales to decline
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of private label food and drink, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of private label food and drink, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Avoidance of processed foods impacting private label sales overall
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- Figure 10: Total US multi-outlet retail sales and forecast of private label food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Non-supermarket store brand efforts pay off
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- Figure 11: Total US multi-outlet sales of private label food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
Market Perspective
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- Private label market share increases
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- Figure 12: US multi-outlet total and private label food and drink sales, and private label share, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 13: US multi-outlet total and private label food sales, and private label share of total, at current prices, 2013-18
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- Figure 14: US multi-outlet total and private label drink sales, and private label share of total, at current prices, 2013-18
Market Factors
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- Rising disposable income likely to shade private label sales
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- Figure 15: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2018
- Figure 16: Disposable personal income change from previous period, Jan. 2007-Oct. 2018
- Shrinking household size likely to impact store brand sales longer term
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- Figure 17: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private label successes in fresh, more-commoditized options
- Private label's missed opportunities in healthier alternatives
- Premium options, particularly in alcohol, could resonate
What’s Working?
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- Private label successes revolve around fresh
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- Figure 18: Health attributes sought, May 2018
What’s Struggling?
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- Natural selection – or lack thereof
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- Figure 19: Private label food/drink launches with natural, environmentally friendly, organic claims, 2013-18
What’s Next?
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- Premium, craft, store brand alcoholic beverages
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- Figure 20: Private label alcoholic beverage launches, 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Nearly universal penetration, but opportunity to grow store brand share of basket
- Price and quality prove key motivators
- Store brand potential for natural, convenience, online retailers
- Store brands' appeal in baked goods, produce
- Leveraging fresh in store brand dairy, meats
- National brands dominate in processed foods
- Improved packaging, more natural options likely appeal
Purchase Trends
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- Store brand purchase almost universal
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- Figure 21: Store brand purchase trend, November 2018
- Younger, less-affluent are strong targets
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- Figure 22: Store brand purchase trend, by consumer demographics, November 2018
- Majority of Hispanic Millennials buying more store brand food/drinks
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- Figure 23: Store brand purchase trend, by Hispanic origin, November 2018
Reasons for Increasing Purchase of Store Brands
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- Quality, budget lead reasons for increased store brand usage
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- Figure 24: Reasons for increased purchase of store brand food/drinks, November 2018
- Quality improvements resonating with older consumers
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- Figure 25: Reasons for increased purchase of store brand food/drinks, by age, November 2018
Reasons for Buying Less or No Store Brand Food/Drinks
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- Taste, trust lead reasons behind name brand loyalty
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- Figure 26: Reasons for less or no store brand purchase, November 2018
Store Brand Purchase Location
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- Store brand loyalists sticking with supermarkets, mass merchandisers
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- Figure 27: Store brand purchase locations, November 2018
- Multiple-store shoppers more likely to be expanding store brand usage
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- Figure 28: Store brand purchase trend, by repertoire of food/drink purchase location, November 2018
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- Figure 29: Store brand purchase location, by store brand purchase trend – buying more, November 2018
- BFY innovation could resonate with private label loyalists
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- Figure 30: Priorities for food shopping, by repertoire of food/drink purchase location, November 2018
Store Brand Opportunity by Category
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- Store brand loyalists most likely turn to supermarkets, mass merchandisers
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- Figure 31: Store brand preferences, by purchase location, November 2018
- Potential in categories where freshness resonates
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- Figure 32: Categories where store brands are preferred, November 2018
Categories Where Neither Store nor Name Brands Resonate Strongly
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- Taking fresh to new levels
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- Figure 33: Brand preference by category, November 2018
Name Brands Strongly Preferred in Certain Categories
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- Processed foods see name brands dominate
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- Figure 34: Categories where name brands are preferred, November 2018
Priorities for Food Shopping
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- Quality, price improvements of interest
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- Figure 35: Priorities for food shopping, November 2018
- Quality, price, organic could expand a product’s appeal
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- Figure 36: TURF analysis – Priorities for food shopping, November 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 37: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 38: Total US multi-outlet retail sales and forecast of private label food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 39: Total US multi-outlet retail sales and forecast of private label food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 40: Total US multi-outlet retail sales and forecast of private label food, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 41: Total US multi-outlet retail sales and forecast of private label food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 42: Total US multi-outlet retail sales and forecast of private label drink, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 43: Total US multi-outlet retail sales and forecast of private label drink, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 44: Total US multi-outlet sales of private label food and drink, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
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- Figure 45: US supermarket sales of private label food and drink, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 46: US sales of private label food and drink through other multi-outlet channels, at current prices, 2013-18
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Methodology - TURF Analysis
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- Figure 47: Table – TURF analysis – Priorities for food shopping, November 2018
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