Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Supermarket share of food and drink sales is slipping
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- Figure 1: MULO sales of food and drink, by retail channel, 2013 and 2018
- Meal kits pose a growing threat
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- Figure 2: Prepared food attitudes – Net any agree, by gender and age, October 2018
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- Figure 3: Prepared food attitudes – Net any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
- Health is a leading barrier to purchase
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- Figure 4: Prepared food purchase barriers, October 2018
- The opportunities
- Prepared foods industry shows growth
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- Figure 5: Year-over-year change in prepared food purchases, October 2018
- Young, urban consumers are purchasing more prepared foods this year
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- Figure 6: Year-over-year change in prepared food purchases, by CHAID analysis, October 2018
- Retailers in diverse areas may succeed with on-site restaurant concepts
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- Figure 7: Prepared food concept interest, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Supermarkets lose share to many competitors
- Growing at-home sales and online shopping have positive implications for prepared foods
- Meal kits hit on the same convenience benefits as prepared foods
Market Breakdown
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- Supermarkets are losing share of food and beverage sales
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- Figure 8: MULO sales of food and drink, by retail channel, 2013 and 2018
Market Perspective
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- Meal kits cut in
- Restaurants promote add-on dayparts
- Convenience stores up the ante
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- Figure 9: Sandwich section in a Chicago Amazon Go store
- Figure 10: Breakfast section in a Chicago Amazon Go store
Market Factors
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- At-home sales growth facilitates prepared food sales
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- Figure 11: BEA food and non-alcoholic beverage sales at home and away from home, January 2010-September 2018
- Figure 12: Dining out in 2019 behaviors – Cook more, October 2018
- Increasing diversity influences food and drink sourcing
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- Figure 13: Purchase incidence by channel, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2018
- Online grocery grows fast
- Calorie counts are now mandatory
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Grocerants take new shape into fine dining, food halls
- Made-to-order may not be fast enough
- Delivering convenience to your doorstep
What’s Working?
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- Standalone restaurants
- In-store restaurant concepts
- Updated menu items
- Are food halls the grocerants of the future?
What’s Struggling?
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- Grab-and-go expands at the expense of made-to-order
- Ingredient and nutritional transparency
What’s Next?
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- Prepared food delivered to your door
- More booze, more bars
- Blended meals check all the boxes
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- The prepared foods industry is hot and growing
- Young city dwellers rely on prepared foods
- Consumers say they aren’t interested in bars at retailers, but some are already there drinking alcohol
Prepared Food Purchases
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- Four out of five consumers purchase prepared foods from grocery stores
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- Figure 14: Prepared food purchases frequency, October 2018
- Young men are the heaviest users of prepared foods
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- Figure 15: Prepared food user groups, by gender and age, October 2018
- Asian and Hispanic consumers are heaviest prepared food users
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- Figure 16: Prepared food user groups by race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
Prepared Food Purchase Location
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- Most consumers buy prepared foods from supermarkets
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- Figure 17: Prepared food purchase location, October 2018
- Half of natural grocery shoppers are heavy prepared food users
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- Figure 18: Prepared food user groups, by prepared food purchase location, October 2018
- iGens prefer to source prepared foods from mass merchandisers
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- Figure 19: Prepared food purchase location by generation, October 2018
- Over half of lower-income consumers source prepared foods from mass merchandisers
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- Figure 20: Prepared food purchase location by household income, October 2018
Year-over-Year Change in Prepared Food Purchases
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- Most are buying the same amount or more prepared foods this year
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- Figure 21: Year-over-year change in prepared food purchases, October 2018
- Natural grocery consumers are the most likely to be buying more prepared foods year-over-year
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- Figure 22: Year-over-year change in prepared food purchases, by prepared food purchase location, October 2018
- Young, urban consumers are driving prepared food growth
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- Figure 23: Year-over-year change in prepared food purchases, by CHAID analysis, October 2018
- Hispanic shoppers also over index for increased prepared food purchases
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- Figure 24: Year-over-year change in prepared food purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
- Convenience fuels prepared food growth
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- Figure 25: Prepared food purchase motivators, October 2018
- Cost and health are top barriers for prepared food purchases
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- Figure 26: Prepared food purchase barriers, October 2018
Prepared Food and Drink Purchases by Daypart
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- Chicken, sandwiches, and salads are go-to prepared foods
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- Figure 27: Prepared food and drink purchases by daypart – Any daypart net, October 2018
- Prepared foods most commonly serve as a dinner solution
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- Figure 28: Prepared food and drink purchases by daypart – Any items net, October 2018
- Dinner prepared food purchases are the most varied of any daypart
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- Figure 29: Prepared food and drink purchases by daypart, by correspondence analysis, October 2018
- Higher-income consumers do not purchase a wide variety of prepared foods
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- Figure 30: Prepared food and drink purchases by daypart – Any daypart net, by household income, October 2018
- More than half of iGens purchase fresh juice/smoothies at stores that sell groceries
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- Figure 31: Prepared food and drink purchases by daypart – Any daypart net, by generation, October 2018
Prepared Food Concept Interest
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- A third of consumers want restaurants at stores that sell groceries
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- Figure 32: Prepared food concept interest, October 2018
- Women drive interest in prepared beverage stations
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- Figure 33: Prepared food concept interest, by gender, October 2018
- Millennials are target demographic for grocery store bars
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- Figure 34: Prepared food concept interest, by generation, October 2018
- Asian consumers propel demand for Asian food stations, sushi/poke
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- Figure 35: Prepared food concept interest, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
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- Figure 36: Prepared food concept interest, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
Prepared Food Behaviors
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- Nearly half of all parents purchase prepared foods for their kids
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- Figure 37: Prepared food behaviors, October 2018
- Men are more likely to use prepared foods for entertainment solutions
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- Figure 38: Prepared food behaviors, by gender, October 2018
- Consumers between the ages of 21 and 44 are twice as likely as their older counterparts to drink alcohol at a retailer
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- Figure 39: Prepared food behaviors by age, October 2018
Prepared Food Attitudes
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- Customization and transparency are key for prepared foods
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- Figure 40: Prepared food attitudes, October 2018
- Younger consumers are attracted to limited-time and branded prepared food items
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- Figure 41: Prepared food attitudes – Net any agree, by gender and age, October 2018
- Hispanics also over index for on-site meal kit interest
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- Figure 42: Prepared food attitudes – Net any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 43: Distribution of generations, by age and race/Hispanic origin, 2018
- CHAID Analysis
- Methodology
- Correspondence Analysis
- Methodology
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- Figure 44: Prepared/MTO foods/drinks purchased, October 2018
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