Table of Contents
Overview
-
- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
-
- The issues
- Stand-alone bakeries represent an area of competition
-
- Figure 1: Opinions on in-store vs stand-alone bakery, August 2018
- Longer-term stagnation in baked good sales
-
- Figure 2: Retail market volume consumption per capita of bread and bread products and sweet bakery, 2013-2017
- Younger consumers are less likely to make purchases from in-store bakeries
-
- Figure 3: Purchase at in-store bakeries, by age, August 2018
- The opportunities
- Fresh-focus is at heart of in-store bakery’s appeal
-
- Figure 4: Important factors when choosing a product from an in-store bakery, August 2018
- Cross-daypart opportunities helps drive more frequent product usage
-
- Figure 5: Correspondence Analysis – Snacking occasions, July 2016
- New flavours and less-familiar formats represent an opportunity to differentiate
-
- Figure 6: Interest in flavour and format innovation from in-store bakeries, August 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
-
- Bread and sweet bakery sales are soft
- Canadians strive to eat healthy most of the time
- Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Bread sales to remain relatively flat
-
- Figure 7: Canada retail value sales and fan chart forecast of bread & bread products, at current prices, 2012-23
- Figure 8: Canada retail value sales forecast of bread & bread products, at current prices, 2012-23
- Modest growth forecast for sweet bakery
-
- Figure 9: Canada retail value sales and fan chart forecast of sweet bakery, at current prices, 2012-23
- Figure 10: Canada retail value sales and fan chart forecast of sweet bakery, at current prices, 2012-23
Market Factors
-
- Canadians are more time-pressed
- Most Canadians live in urban areas
-
- Figure 11: Share of Canadians that live in urban and rural areas, 1851-2016
- Mobile technology enabling unprecedented opportunity to interact
-
- Figure 12: Mobile and smartphone penetration, by age group, May 2017
- Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
-
- Figure 13: Top 10 countries of birth of recent immigrants, 2011-16
- Canada’s population is aging
-
- Figure 14: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
- Canadians strive to eat healthy most of the time…
-
- Figure 15: Healthy eating, November 2016
- ...but flexibility may be contributing to the high obesity rates
-
- Figure 16: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14
Key Players – What You Need to Know
-
- Carb-consciousness diets represent a potential challenge to growth
- Snackable baked goods are an opportunity
- Baked goods for specific diet to become more prominent
What’s Working?
-
- Demand for better experiences a potential growth-booster
Challenges
-
- Carb-consciousness diets represent a potential challenge to growth
-
- Figure 17: Mojo Me Chocolate Brownies (South Africa), July 2018
-
- Figure 18: Julian Bakery Pegan Ginger Snack Cookie Protein Bar (US), March 2017
- Figure 19: Julian Bakery Paleo Wraps (US), August 2018
-
- Figure 20: Growfit Ultra Low Carb Flower (India), June 2018
What’s Next?
-
- Snackable baked goods are an opportunity
-
- Figure 21: Correspondence analysis – snacking occasions - July 2016
- Baked goods for specific diet to become more prominent
-
- Figure 22: Strawberries & Cream Artisan Raw Cake (UK), July 2018
-
- Figure 23: Lazy Day Foods Free From Tiffin Bites (UK), March 2018
- Figure 24: Vega Divas Baked Goods & Desserts Banana Chocolate Cupcakes-to-Go (USA), January 2018
-
- Figure 25: Vegan Cocoa & Goji Berry Muffins (South Africa), July 2018
- Figure 26: Probios Go Vegan! Organic Vegan Wheat Croissant with Chocolate Cream (UK), March 2018
-
- Figure 27: The Free From Bakehouse Bakery Banana &Date Flapjack (UK), July 2018
- Figure 28: Ozery Bakery Organic Morning Rounds Cranberry Orange Flavoured Toastable Fruit and Grain Buns (UK), November 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- In-store bakery’s importance reflect Canada’s retail evolution
- Demand for freshness reflects core appeal of in-store bakery
- Opportunity to bring theatre to the bakery
- Looking abroad can be an inspiration for innovation at home
- Foodservice focus can help focus innovation for growth
In-store Bakery Usage
-
- In-store bakery’s importance reflect Canada’s retail evolution
-
- Figure 29: Locations where baked are purchased, August 2018
- Over half of consumers made a recent in-store bakery purchase
-
- Figure 30: When and where baked goods are purchased, August 2018
- Young women key to growing bread at in-store bakery
-
- Figure 31: When bread from an in-store bakery was purchased, women 18-34 vs overall, August 2018
- Foodservice focus can help focus innovation for growth
-
- Figure 32: Correspondence Analysis – Principal map – Purchase location, August 2018
-
- Figure 33: Where bread and desserts are purchased, by age group, August 2018
Choice Factors
-
- Demand for freshness reflects core appeal of in-store bakery
-
- Figure 34: Important factors when choosing a product from an in-store bakery, August 2018
- Canadians are looking for natural baked goods
-
- Figure 35: Importance of all-natural ingredients when choosing a product from an in-store bakery, by age, August 2018
- Added nutrition is a purchase driver
-
- Figure 36: Importance of nutrition-related considerations when choosing a product from an in-store bakery, by age, August 2018
- New flavours reflects opportunity to differentiate
-
- Figure 37: Importance of flavour combinations when choosing a product from an in-store bakery, by age, August 2018
- It’s important to remember value’s importance to younger consumers
-
- Figure 38: Importance of price vs “baked on same day”, by age group, August 2018
Opportunities for Innovation
-
- Opportunity to bring theatre to the bakery
- Provenance can be the basis for story
-
- Figure 39: Areas of interest from in-store bakeries, August 2018
- Looking abroad can be an inspiration for innovation at home
-
- Figure 40: Interest in internationally-inspired options from in-store bakeries, Chinese Canadians vs overall, August 2018
- Canadians fall for seasonal flavours
-
- Figure 41: Interest in seasonally-inspired options from in-store bakeries, 18-34s with household incomes of $70K or more vs overall, August 2018
- Demand for health innovation at in-store bakeries requires context
-
- Figure 42: Interest in health-related considerations from in-store bakeries, 18-44s vs over-45s, August 2018
Consumer Segments
-
- Success with women key to in-store bakery’s success
-
- Figure 43: Purchase of sweet baked goods from in-store bakeries, by gender, age and parental status, August 2018
-
- Figure 44: Purchase of sweet baked goods from in-store bakeries, by gender, August 2018
- Flavour and format exploration key to winning over Chinese Canadians
-
- Figure 45: Purchase of sweet baked goods from in-store bakeries, Chinese Canadians vs overall, August 2018
-
- Figure 46: Interest in select options from in-store bakeries, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, August 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
-
- Data sources
- Sales Data
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence analysis
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Back to top