Table of Contents
Analyst Comment – Looking forward to Christmas
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- Retail sales growth stable
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- Figure 1: Retail sales growth, value and volume, 2016-18
- The economy
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- Figure 2: Real incomes, 2015-18
- Two other factors need to be mentioned
- Consumer confidence starts to fall
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- Figure 3: Consumer confidence, 2015-18
- Are they right to be cautious?
- Black Friday – did it peak last year?
- Impact on Christmas sales
- Christmas 2018
- And what about 2019 – the Brexit year
UK Retail Sales
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- Key points
- Retail sales
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- Figure 4: Retail sales trends, 2017/18
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- Figure 5: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, July 2016-September 2018
- John Lewis
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- Figure 6: John Lewis Department Stores: year-on-year growth, Jun 2017-Aug 2018
- Inflation
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- Figure 7: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2017-18
- Inflation and wages
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- Figure 8: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, Jan 2015-Jul 2018
- Confidence
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- Figure 9: Mintel financial confidence tracker, January 2016-September 2018
- Looking forward
Sector Focus – Household Goods
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- The sector – What’s included
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- Figure 10: Consumer spending on household goods, by product type, 2017
- Figure 11: Consumer spending on household goods, 2013-17
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- Figure 12: Consumer spending growth, overall versus household goods, annual % change, quarterly, 2015-18
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- Figure 13: Growth in spending on household goods products, quarterly % change year on year, 2017-18
- Falling inflation
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- Figure 14: Price inflation on household goods categories, % change over 12 months, August 2017-August 2018
- Specialists’ sales improve in 2018
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- Figure 15: Household goods specialists’ retail sales, monthly % change year-on-year, 2017-18
- Signs of pent-up demand for spending on the home
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- Figure 16: Spending and intention to spend on the home, January 2016-September 2018
- Housing market remains a concern
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- Figure 17: Residential housing transactions over £40,000, monthly year-on-year % change, seasonally adjusted, September 2017-August 2018
- Where next?
Launch Activity and Innovations
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- UK: Morrisons launches new range of vegan ready meals
- UK: Sainsbury's to test beauty aisles
- UK: Tesco opens the first two Jack’s discount stores
- UK: Allbirds to open first UK store
- UK: M&S launches clothing range for children with disabilities
- UK: BHS to return to high street with Beales concessions
Headlines for the Month
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- Co-ops
- Grocers
- Other food specialists
- Clothing retailing
- Mixed goods retailing
- Department stores
- DIY retailing
- Music and video goods retailing
- Furniture retailing
News Analysis – Food and Drink
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- Co-ops
- UK: Co-op
- …profit rises driven by strong food sales
- …to ban single use plastics
- UK: Scotmid Co-operative’s half year profit benefits from hot weather
- Grocers
- UK: Aldi to create 5,000 new jobs in the UK with 130 new stores
- UK: Lidl
- …opening 38-acre warehouse in Leeds
- …pledges to scrap black plastic packaging
- UK: Morrisons
- …revenue increases by 4.5% for first half
- …facing employment tribunal claim over equal pay
- UK: Sainsbury's
- …Asda merger could result in 400 stores lost
- …Asda merger referred for further investigation
- UK: Tesco
- …group sales up 12.5%
- …set to launch discount chain Jack’s next week
- …to scrap best before dates on fruit and vegetables
- …Jamie Oliver to join Tesco to help encourage healthy eating for customers
- UK: Waitrose steps up action to remove plastic bags
- …trial 2 hour same day delivery
- …testing an in-house delivery service
- Other food specialists
- UK: Greggs reports strong Q3 sales
- UK: Hotel Chocolat profits up 13%
News Analysis – Clothing and Footwear
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- UK: Bonmarché warns full-year profits will be below expectations
- UK: British tailoring house Lutwyche opens first pop-up
- UK: Fat Face CEO to step down
- UK: French Connection
- …confirms company could be sold
- …report 2.4% drop in revenue
- UK: H&M enjoys sales boost in third quarter
- UK: Matalan outperforms rivals
- UK: Moss Bros Group report 3.3% fall in total group revenue
- UK: Mulberry opens new Regent Street flagship
- UK: Next full price sales up 4.5% in first half
- UK: Orla Kiely ceases trading
- UK: Primark
- …boosts revenue despite a drop in like-for-like store sales
- …extends sustainable cotton sourcing programme to Pakistan
- UK: Quiz issues profit warning
- UK: River Island
- …opening new full-sized store at The Grafton, Cambridge
- …reports decline in annual sales and profit
- UK: Superdry appoints chief product officer and plans launch of new fashion range
- UK: Sweaty Betty posts jump in profits and sales
- UK: Ted Baker
- …sales up 3.5%
- …signs deal with Timex for a new watch collection
- UK: TK Maxx FY sales increase 11%
- UK: Office CEO retires after 15 years
News Analysis – Mixed Goods
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- UK: Poundland
- …to open stores in 20 former Poundworld locations
- …intellectual property put up for sale
- UK: Wilko swings to red
News Analysis – Multi-sector
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- UK: M&S
- …appoints new leadership team for food business
- …rolls out new checkout-free payment service
- …Holly Willoughby unveiled as new face of M&S fashion campaign
- Department stores
- UK: Debenhams
- …could launch CVA as it calls in KPMG
- …director of merchandising exits
- …wants to bring fun back to shopping
- UK: Harvey Nichols rolling out shoppable video screens in-store
- UK: House of Fraser
- …three stores to close
- …in-house brands to be scrapped from House of Fraser
- UK: John Lewis
- …flagship store to see business rates tax to rise 57%
- …may take £50 million hit to profits after cutting prices this summer
- …reports a 99% drop in half year profits
- …collaborating with CupClub to reduce plastic waste
News Analysis – Household Goods
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- DIY retailing
- UK: 200 management roles cut in B&Q restructure
- UK: Kingfisher reports drop in interim profits
- UK: Topps Tiles lifts profit forecast following strong fourth-quarter
- UK: Wesfarmer’s former bosses received £760,000 in termination payments despite disastrous takeover
News Analysis – Other Retail
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- Music and video goods retailing
- UK: HMV reports falling sales and profits
- Carpet retailing
- UK: Emma Mattress partners up with Carpetright
- Furniture retailing
- UK: DFS profits hit by summer heatwave
- UK: Dunelm reports 6.7% fall in full-year profits
- UK: Habitat opens first new flagship in 10 years
- UK: Harveys launches first ever celebrity partnership with Louise Redknapp
- UK: ScS Group revenue up £4.3 million
- Homewares retailing
- UK: Cath Kidston reviewing store locations to increase footfall
News Analysis – Online
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- UK: Boohoo
- …lifts forecast as sales beat expectations
- …poaches Primark executive John Lyttle
- UK: Made.com reports a 40% increase in revenue
- UK: Ocado
- …adds ‘low plastic’ and ‘recyclable’ categories online
- …revenue up 11.5% for Q3
- UK: Sosandar expects to report 407% increase in half year revenue
- Book and stationery retailing
- UK: Card Factory profits rise despite challenging footfall
- UK: Paperchase under pressure as main credit insurer reduces cover
- UK: Office Outlet’s CVA is approved
- UK: Waterstones buys rival bookstore Foyles
- Sports and leisure goods retailing
- UK: Chairman of Sports Direct Keith Hellawell is to step down
- UK: Evans Cycles
- …seeks £10m in urgent funding from lenders
- …seeks buyer after failing to launch rescue bid
- …Halfords reportedly makes a bid to buy Evans
- UK: JD Sports
- …plans to take gym chain nationwide
- …pre-tax profits up 19% following record results
- UK: Nike revenues top predictions
- Garden centres
- UK: Wyevale sells four more garden centres
- Toys and games retailing
- UK: The Entertainer reports 38% profit uplift
- Shopping centres
- UK: Icon Outlet at The 02 announces launch date
- Miscellaneous specialist retailing
- UK: Pets at Home Group reports 2.7% like-for-like growth
News Analysis – Economy
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- UK: August retail sales up by 4.9%
- UK: BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index reports second month of price inflation
- UK: Retail sales down 0.2% in September
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