Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The issues
- Competition for prepared meals is high
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- Figure 1: Restaurant competitor utilization, July 2018
- FSRs experience slowed growth
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- Figure 2: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
- The opportunities
- Restaurant revenues expected to grow
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- Figure 3: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-2023
- Consumers view takeout positively
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- Figure 4: Correspondence Analysis– On-premise vs at-home associations, July 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Consumer spending is up
- Operators must combat increasing costs and competition
- Interest in LSRs continues to grow, while casual dining chains struggle
Market Size and Forecast
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- Restaurant sales continue to climb upward
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- Figure 5: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-2023
- Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- LSR growth is outperforming FSRs
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- Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 11: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Market Perspective
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- Consumers have more choice than ever
- Consumer interest in convenience stores continues
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and fan chart of c-store foodservice sales, at current prices, 2012-2022
- Figure 13: C-store foodservice attitudes, January 2018
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- Figure 14: C-stores versus QSRs, January 2018
- Retailers invest in supermarket foodservice
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- Figure 15: retail and foodservice associations, August 2017
- Workplace provided lunches could hurt local restaurants
Market Factors
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- Positive economic conditions ahead
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- Figure 16: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007- August 2018
- Consumers have more discretionary funds
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- Figure 17: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-July 2018
- Generational shares are shifting
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- Figure 18: Population by generation, 2013-23
- Malls must adapt or be pushed out
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Restaurants deliver on convenience
- Restaurant founders’ woes hurt chain restaurant sales
- Chick-fil-A markets Mealtime Kits
What’s Working?
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- Delivering convenience directly to customer’s homes
What’s Struggling?
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- Reputations of restaurant founders
What’s Next?
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- Chick-fil-A testing Mealtime Kits
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- At-home dining is restaurants’ biggest competition
- Younger and older generations view dining out differently
- Consumers seek recommendations from friends and family
- Restaurant-goers are interested in more takeout options
Restaurant Visitation
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- QSR visitation remains high
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- Figure 19: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, July 2018
- Nearly all young women have visited a fast food restaurant
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- Figure 20: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, age & gender, July 2018
- Younger generations desire more casual dining
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- Figure 21: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, by generation, July 2018
- Parents are top restaurant-goers
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- Figure 22: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, by parental status and gender, July 2018
- Multicultural customers remain important opportunity
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- Figure 23: Restaurant visitation by restaurant type, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
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- Figure 24: Adventurous eater segmentation by race, July 2018
Restaurant Motivators
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- Consumers dine out to socialize
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- Figure 25: Restaurant motivators, July 2018
- Parents look to dining out to save time
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- Figure 26: Restaurant motivators, saving time, by gender and parental status, July 2018
- Healthy meal options motivate young men
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- Figure 27: Restaurant motivators, by age and gender, July 2018
- iGens dine out to socialize; Millennials dine out to indulge and relax
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- Figure 28: Restaurant motivators, by generation, July 2018
Restaurant Information Sources
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- Word-of-mouth recommendations are most valuable
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- Figure 29: Information source, July 2018
- Older generations trust recommendations and traditional media
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- Figure 30: Information sources, by generation, July 2018
- Coupons and promotions attract middle income earners
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- Figure 31: Information sources, by household income, July 2018
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- Figure 32: P.F. Chang’s company email, September 9th, 2018, Projected volume: 26.3k
- Parents are more likely to use social media to find restaurants
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- Figure 33: Information sources, by parental status, July 2018
Traditional Restaurant Competition
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- Competition remains high
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- Figure 34: Restaurant competitor utilization, July 2018
- Young men buy meals from many sources
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- Figure 35: Restaurant competitor utilization by age and gender, July 2018
- Parents shop and dine at supermarkets
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- Figure 36: Restaurant competitor utilization by age and gender, July 2018
- Hispanics are top consumers for foodservice retail concepts
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- Figure 37: Restaurant competitor utilization by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
Dining Out Associations
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- Takeout trumps delivery, but dining out is still king
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- Figure 38: Correspondence Analysis – On-premise vs at-home associations, July 2018
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- Figure 39: On-premise vs at-home associations, July 2018
- Younger consumers more favorable towards delivery
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- Figure 40: On-premise vs at-home associations - delivery, by generation, July 2018
- Lower income households more favorable towards delivery
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- Figure 41: On-premise vs at-home associations -delivery, by household income, July 2018
On-premise vs At-home Dining Behavior
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- More than a third of restaurant-goers are cooking more at home
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- Figure 42: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, July 2018
- Almost half of young women are cooking more at home than last year
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- Figure 43: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by age and gender, July 2018
- Parents are more likely to only dine out for special occasions
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- Figure 44: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by parental status, July 2018
- Black consumers, older women interested in calorie counts
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- Figure 45: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by age and gender, July 2018
- Figure 46: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by race & Hispanic origin, July 2018
- Middle income earners and parents interested in chains
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- Figure 47: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by household income, July 2018
- Figure 48: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by parental status, July 2018
- Parents and younger consumers are ordering more takeout and delivery
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- Figure 49: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by parental status, July 2018
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- Figure 50: On-premise vs at-home dining behavior, by age and gender, July 2018
Dining Out Attitudes
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- Consumers dine out to try something new, indulge
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- Figure 51: Dining out attitudes, July 2018
- Younger generations desire both consistency and adventure
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- Figure 52: Dining out attitudes, by generation, July 2018
- Millennials want to indulge when eating out
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- Figure 53: Dining out attitudes, July 2018
- Older women feel it is easier to eat healthier at restaurants
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- Figure 54: Dining out attitudes, July 2018
- Hispanics value ambience
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- Figure 55: Dining out attitudes, ambience, by race & Hispanic origin, July 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 56: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Correspondence Analysis Methodology
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