Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
- Bread
- Speciality bread
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Bread value and volume sales are up in 2018
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
- White leads in pre-packed bread, but bread with bits fuels growth
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2017 and 2018
- Chilled garlic bread and Indian breads see strong growth
- Bread struggles as people strive to eat healthily
- Companies and brands
- Warburtons retains the lead in pre-packed bread, Hovis grows
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value, 2017/18*
- Warburtons sales fall in speciality bread and rolls, own-label steams ahead
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2017/18*
- Own-label leads NPD after ramping up activity
- An increase in premium claims as artisan trend takes hold
- Tapping into health trends by communicating fibre and protein content
- Bread makers increase adspend in 2017
- Warburtons solicits greatest commitment
- The consumer
- Bread buying is almost universal
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- Figure 5: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, July 2018
- Nutritional benefits interest 34%
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- Figure 6: Interest in innovation, July 2018
- Convenience, value for money and health are of most importance
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- Figure 7: Correspondence Analysis of qualities sought for when buying bread, by occasion, July 2018
- Packed lunches seen to save you time by 82% of workers
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards bread, July 2018
- Variety appeals to bread users with 66% switching between products
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- Figure 9: Behaviours related to bread, July 2018
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- While there is clearly a space for healthy bread, not everyone is prioritising health
- The facts
- The implications
- A focus on green credentials would allow bread makers to chime with current consumer sentiment
- The facts
- The implications
- Promoting time saved can help packed lunches appeal to time-poor consumers
- The facts
- The implications
- Catering to consumers’ desire for variety presents opportunities in bread
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Bread value and volume sales are up in 2018
- Modest growth predicted for bread
- White leads in pre-packed bread, but bread with bits fuels growth
- Chilled garlic bread and Indian breads see strong growth
- Bread struggles as people strive to eat healthily
Market Size and Forecast
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- Bread value and volume sales are up in 2018
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- Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
- Value and volumes expected to rise over 2018-23
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
- Figure 12: UK retail volume sales of the total* bread market, 2013-23
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Pre-packed bread sees value growth
- Desire for craft continues
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, by segment, 2016-18
- Bread with bits continues double-digit growth
- White pre-packed bread remains the most popular
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- Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of pre-packed bread, by type, 2016-18
- Chilled garlic bread and Indian breads see strong growth as people look to meal accompaniments
- Rolls continue to come under pressure from other lunchtime options
- Sandwich thins see ongoing decline
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales of rolls and speciality bread, by types, 2016-18
Market Drivers
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- Bread in long-term decline
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- Figure 16: UK household purchases of bread, per person per week, by type, 1974-2016/17
- Bread struggles as people strive to eat healthily
- Nutritional benefits help to encourage bread eating
- Out-of-home lunch market remains a threat
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- Figure 17: Most popular lunch foods, April 2018
- Growth in incomes provides an opportunity for further premiumisation
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- Figure 18: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, January 2009-August 2018
- Margins set to be hit by rising prices
- Rise in older children could provide a boost to lunch box market
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- Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Warburtons retains the lead in pre-packed bread; Hovis grows
- Warburtons sales fall in speciality bread and rolls; own-label steams ahead
- Own-label leads NPD after ramping up activity
- Warburtons steps up NPD in 2018
- Bread makers increase adspend in 2017
- Warburtons solicits greatest commitment
Market Share
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- Warburtons retains the lead in pre-packed bread, despite sales fall
- Hovis sees value sales rise on falling volumes
- ABF’s Kingsmill and Burgen sales losses deepen
- Own-label grows share in pre-packed bread
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- Figure 20: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2017/18
- Figure 21: Leading companies in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2017/18
- Warburtons sales also fall in speciality bread and rolls
- New York Bakery Co see sales dip
- Pizza Express benefits from rise in chilled garlic bread
- Weight Watchers sees sales rise
- Own-label sees sales rise in speciality bread and rolls
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- Figure 22: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2017/1
- Figure 23: Leading companies in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2017/1
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Own-label leads NPD after ramping up activity
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- Figure 24: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products^ market, by brand and private-label, 2014-18
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- Figure 25: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
- Warburtons steps up NPD in 2018
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- Figure 26: Warburtons unveils deli buns, 2018
- Warburtons’ gluten-free rebrand boosts gluten-free launches
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- Figure 27: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by L/N/R allergen and gluten-free claims, 2014-18
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- Figure 28: Warburtons rebrands Newburn Bakehouse range, 2017 and 2018
- Morrisons debuts gluten-free bread in ISB
- Schär launches a FODMAP-certified range
- New York Bakery Co in brand redesign
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- Figure 29: New York Bakery Co rebrands packaging, 2018
- Tapping into healthy eating trends
- Fibre content edges up
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- Figure 30: Average fibre content in bread and bread products, 2014-18
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- Figure 31: New products carrying a high in fibre claim, 2017 and 2018
- Figure 32: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by selected health claims, 2014-18
- M&S looks to fibre and vitamin D
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- Figure 33: M&S calls out vitamin D and fibre content in rolls, 2018
- Communicating protein content
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- Figure 34: New products carrying the high in protein claim, 2018
- Seeded variants up their game to build standout
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- Figure 35: Warburtons looks to pulses as well as seeds, 2018
- Calling out ancient grains
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- Figure 36: Bread makers call out presence of ancient grains on-pack, 2018
- Figure 37: Warburtons references nutrients of ancient grains on back of pack, 2018
- An increase in premium claims as artisan trend takes hold
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- Figure 38: Share of premium products of all new launches in the UK bread market, 2014-18
- Highlighting baking/cooking techniques to convey quality
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- Figure 39: Brands highlight baking/cooking techniques, 2018
- Sourdough trend continues
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- Figure 40: Own-label and brands launch sourdough varieties, 2017 and 2018
- Flavour innovation continues in wraps
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- Figure 41: M&S and Tesco launch spinach wraps, 2017 and 2018
- Savoury flavours remain rare
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- Figure 42: Tesco repackages cheese and chutney cob, 2018
- Opportunities for more ethical/environmental packaging
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- Figure 43: Bread packaging with ethical/environmental claims, 2016 and 2018
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Bread makers increase adspend in 2017
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- Figure 44: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread and bread products, by product type, 2014-18
- Warburtons leads expenditure; enlists Boltonian Peter Kay
- ‘Gluten freeeedom’ social campaign marks gluten-free rebrand
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- Figure 45: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by advertiser, (sorted by 2017) 2014-18
- Allied supports 50/50 range with Loaf’s Good campaign
- …and unveils on-pack promotion to ‘Grab a Grand’
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- Figure 46: Kingsmill unveils grab a grand promotion, 2018
- Hovis pushes ‘good today, good always’ message…
- …and urges people to fall back in love with bread
- …and offers family holidays in on-pack promotions
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- Figure 47: Hovis launches on-pack promotions for a chance to win a holiday, 2017 and 2018
- New York Bakery in brand revamp…
- …and beer launch
- …while also looking to OOH activity
- Retailers invest in advertising; Morrisons the highest spender
- Tesco showcases craft bakers
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 48: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2018
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 49: Key metrics for selected brands, August 2018
- Brand attitudes: Hovis leads on being seen to care about health
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- Figure 50: Attitudes, by brand, August 2018
- Brand personality: New York Bakery Co has the edge on fun
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- Figure 51: Brand personality – Macro image, August 2018
- Market stalwarts enjoy strong family connotations
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- Figure 52: Brand personality – Micro image, August 2018
- Brand analysis
- Warburtons enjoys a winning image of delivering quality and value
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- Figure 53: User profile of Warburtons, August 2018
- New York Bakery Co leads on fun
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- Figure 54: User profile of New York Bakery Co, August 2018
- Hovis stands out as ethical, traditional and caring about health
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- Figure 55: User profile of Hovis, August 2018
- Kingsmill lacks the strength of image of its closest competitors
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- Figure 56: User profile of Kingsmill, August 2018
- Free-from brand Genius is little-known
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- Figure 57: User profile of Genius, August 2018
- Lack of awareness hampers Roberts
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- Figure 58: User profile of Roberts, August 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Bread buying is almost universal
- White bread is the most popular type of packaged sliced loaf
- 41% eat packaged sliced bread and 12% other types of bread daily
- Nutritional benefits interest 34%
- Convenience, value for money and health are of most importance
- Packed lunches seen to save you time by 82% of workers
- Variety appeals to bread users with 66% switching between products
Purchase and Usage of Bread
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- Bread buying is almost universal
- Packaged sliced loaves lead
- Many other bread products see usage peak among under-35s
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- Figure 59: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, July 2018
- White bread is the most popular type of packaged sliced loaf
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- Figure 60: Types of packaged sliced loaves bought in the past month, July 2018
- Foodies opt for wholemeal and with bits bread
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- Figure 61: Types of bread bought in the past month, by age, socio-economic group and annual household income, July 2018
- 41% eat packaged sliced bread and 12% other types of bread daily
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- Figure 62: Frequency of eating bread in the past month, July 2018
- Consumers have an expansive repertoire
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- Figure 63: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the past month, July 2018
Interest in Innovation
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- Nutritional benefits interest 34%
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- Figure 64: Interest in innovation, July 2018
- Various artisan cues each appeal to a minority
- Handmade claims shoot up in NPD
- Locally made products chime with 28%
- Paper packaging could tap into the environmental trend
- Adventurous flavours appeal to 19%
Qualities Associated with Bread for Different Occasions
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- Convenience, value for money and health are of most importance
- Heavy users give these factors particular weight
- Health is important to around a third on each occasion
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- Figure 65: Correspondence Analysis of qualities sought for when buying bread, by occasion, July 2018
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- Figure 66: Qualities sought for when buying bread by occasion, July 2018
- Methodology
Attitudes towards Bread
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- Packed lunches seen to save you time by 82% of workers
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- Figure 67: Attitudes towards bread, July 2018
- Bread seen to be a good source of fibre by 72%...
- …but unhealthy if eaten too often by 45%
- Mothers are more likely to see too much bread as unhealthy
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- Figure 68: Bread – CHAID – Tree output, July 2018
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- Figure 69: Global NPD with fruit or vegetable ingredients, 2018
- Figure 70: Hovis adds wheatgerm and calcium to best of both, 2018
- Variety of toppings means bread is never boring to 75%
- But toppings are deemed costly by 23%
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- Figure 71: Tesco showcases prices in press ad, 2018
Bread Behaviours
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- Variety appeals to bread users with 66% switching between products
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- Figure 72: Behaviours related to bread, July 2018
- 62% often eat bread with a meal
- 52% would like ideas on how to use up stale bread
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Methodology
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- Figure 73: Bread – CHAID – Table output, July 2018
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 74: UK value sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2018-23
- Figure 75: UK volume sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2018-23
- Forecast methodology
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Definition
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- Figure 76: Google searches for 'FODMAP', UK, 09/2013-08/2018
- Figure 77: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by texture (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
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- Figure 78: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by flavour component, 2014-18
- Figure 79: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by any ethical/environmental claim (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
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- Figure 80: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by package material, 2014-18
Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 81: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by media type, (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
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