Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Increasing usage should counter flat sales growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
- Consumers valuing value
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- Figure 2: Purchase influencers, June 2018
- Price strongly impacts consumer interest in nuts/seeds/trail mix
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- Figure 3: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, in millions, by company, 52 weeks ending May 20, 2018, % comparison with 52 weeks ending May 20, 2017
- The opportunities
- Expand further into snacking and beyond
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- Figure 4: Usage, June 2018
- Positioning around protein
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- Figure 5: Nutrition concerns, June 2018
- Allergen-free potential for parents
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- Figure 6: Allergen-free interest, by parental status, June 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Flat sales growth to gain strength
- Nuts, already the largest segment, will outpace other segments
- Powerful private label
- Snacking's popularity “energizes” category
Market Size and Forecast
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- Slower sales, yet signs of recovery
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Nuts to grow significantly faster than seeds
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- Figure 9: Sales and forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment, current year
- Other retail channels account for considerable sales
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
Market Perspective
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- Private label options hold considerable market share
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- Figure 11: Nut, seed, and trail mix launches, branded versus private label, 2013-18
Market Factors
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- Obesity levels continue to rise
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- Figure 12: Percentage of consumers aged 20+ who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
- Snacking proves prolific
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- Figure 13: Snacking frequency, March 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Wonderful placement
- Consider the cost
- The challenge of going too extreme
- Mixes could provide health benefits naturally
Company and Brand Sales of Nuts, Seeds, and Trail Mix
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- Sluggish category reflective of major brands
- Sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by company
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- Figure 14: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, in millions, by company, 52 weeks ending May 20, 2018, % comparison with 52 weeks ending May 20, 2017
What’s Working?
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- Private labels prove price matters
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- Figure 15: private label nut introductions, 2017-18
What’s Struggling?
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- Novel flavors face challenges
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- Figure 16: Notably flavorful nut introductions, 2017-18
What’s Next?
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- Natural and healthy motivate nut/seed consumers
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumption levels widespread
- Younger consumers purchase from a greater variety of retailers
- Health and natural resonate with Hispanic Millennials
- Relatively untapped potential at breakfast
- Salty flavors prove most popular
- Leverage non-artificial and lack of additives/preservatives
- Protein and healthy fats could boost the category
- Potential for free-from claims
Category Consumption
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- Nut usage more widespread than seeds or trail mix
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- Figure 17: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, June 2018
- Older consumers far less engaged in the category
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- Figure 18: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by age, June 2018
- Healthy snack potential likely luring parents
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- Figure 19: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by parental status, June 2018
- Higher-income households more likely to engage in the category
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- Figure 20: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by household income, June 2018
- Hispanics notably more likely to engage in the category
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- Figure 21: Consumption of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
Purchase Location
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- Category consumers purchase mostly from supermarkets
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- Figure 22: Purchase location, June 2018
- Younger consumers turn to variety of retailers for nuts/seeds
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- Figure 23: Purchase location, by age, June 2018
- Lower-income consumers more likely to turn to dollar, convenience stores for nuts/seeds
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- Figure 24: Purchase location, by household income, June 2018
- Health, natural resonate strongly in certain retail channels
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- Figure 25: Influences, by purchase location, June 2018
- Seed consumers turn to variety of retailers
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- Figure 26: Purchase location, by consumption of nuts/seeds/trail mix, June 2018
Purchase Influences
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- Price factors strongly
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- Figure 27: Influences, June 2018
- Ease, health resonating with parents
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- Figure 28: Influences, by parental status, June 2018
- Health, natural of interest to Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 29: Influences, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
Usage
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- Nuts/seeds strongly associated with snacking
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- Figure 30: Usage, June 2018
- Breakfast, a relatively untapped daypart for nuts/seeds
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- Figure 31: Usage, by parental status, June 2018
- Leveraging morning occasion for Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 32: Usage, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
Flavors of Interest
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- Mining the potential of salt
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- Figure 33: Areas of interest, by consumption of nuts/seeds/trail mix, June 2018
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- Figure 34: US nut launches, by flavor, 2013-18
- Non-artificial, salty snack in resealable packaging could resonate
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- Figure 35: TURF analysis – Areas of interest, June 2018
Packaging Potential
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- A role for resealable
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- Figure 36: Packaging potential, by age, June 2018
- Single-serve packaging resonates with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 37: Packaging potential, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
Natural Nuts and Seeds
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- No-additive claims appeal to the widest base of consumers
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- Figure 38: Claims, by age, June 2018
- Organics resonate strongly with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 39: Natural claims, by Hispanic origin, June 2018
Nuts and Nutrition Opinions
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- Nutrition resonating among nuts/seeds consumers
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- Figure 40: Opinions of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, net agree, by parental status, June 2018
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- Figure 41: Nuts, seeds, and trail mix compared to other snacks, net agree, by parental status, June 2018
Concerns
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- Price concerns significant among younger consumers
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- Figure 42: Expense concerns, by age, June 2018
- Lower and free-from claims could resonate
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- Figure 43: Allergen-free interest, by parental status, June 2018
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- Figure 44: Fat content concerns, by parental status, June 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 55: US supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-18
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- Figure 56: US drugstore sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 57: US sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 58: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of seeds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of trail mix, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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TURF Analysis Methodology
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- Figure 62: Table – TURF analysis – Areas of interest, June 2018
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