Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Slow growth expected to continue
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2013-23
- Consumption continues to slowly wane
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- Figure 2: Reasons for decreased consumption – I’m trying to cut down on carbs, April 2018
- Consumers not actively looking to expand consumption
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- Figure 3: Bread type consumption drivers – none of the above, April 2018
- The opportunities
- Make underutilized segments everyday options
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- Figure 4: Bread consumption, April 2018
- Encourage trial, promote freshness
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- Figure 5: Bread attitudes, April 2018
- Highlight nutrition and excitement
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- Figure 6: Bread type associations, April 2018
- Expand bread uses and occasions
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- Figure 7: Bread uses, April 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Minimal growth in bread category
- Stagnant sales from leading segment fresh loaf bread
- Increasing bread prices
- Obesity on the rise
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales slump continues
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Fresh loaf bread dominates the category, but sales remain flat
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- Figure 11: Total US market size of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2018 (est)
- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Majority of bread sales from traditional supermarkets
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- Figure 13: Total US market size of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Market Perspective
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- Bread prices climb amid shrinking wheat plantings and consumption
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- Figure 14: Total US wheat plantings 2014-17 and flour consumption 2014-16
- Figure 15: Consumer price index – Average price of bread per pound, 2015 & 2018
Market Factors
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- Obesity in America continues to climb
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- Figure 16: Growth in obesity in the US, 2013-15
- Declining household size expected to rebound
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- Figure 17: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Top two companies struggle to make gains
- Artisan, premium breads
- Free-from conveys BFY
- Stale appeal of private label loaf bread
- Gluten-free options struggle with taste and affordability
Company and Brand Sales of Packaged Bread
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- Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods maintain dominance in bread category
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- Figure 18: Dave’s Killer Bread online video: “What We’re All About”
- Specialty brands collectively dominate the category
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Working?
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- Artisan and premium
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- Figure 20: Launches of bread, by premium, artisan, and crafted, 2015-18*
- Figure 21: Sara Lee TV Ad: “Sara Lee Artesano Build Something Better 2.0”
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- Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select artisan, premium, or crafted brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 23: Purchase intelligence of bread, by select artisan private label products, January 2017-May 2018
- Cleaner labels cued by free-from claims
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- Figure 24: Nature’s Own TV ad: “Good and Simple Bread Bringing Families Together”
- Figure 25: Bread consumption drivers – Any bread, by free-from claims, April 2018
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- Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select BFY brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Low-carb tortillas
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- Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by total identifiable low-carb tortilla brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of Mission Carb Balance, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Struggling?
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- Private label loaf bread struggles
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- Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by private label brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select gluten-free brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
- Taste, value issues with gluten-free
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- Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of bread, by select gluten-free brands, rolling 52-weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Next?
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- Snack sized offerings
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- Figure 32: Launches of bread, by mini options, 2015-18*
- Packaging that ensures freshness
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- Figure 33: Launches of bread, by resealable packaging, 2015-18*
- Foodservice branding
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Sliced loaf bread drives widespread participation
- Diversity, everyday uses can promote increased frequency
- Consumers open to trial of unfamiliar brands, types
- Carb-cutting detrimental to the category
- Leverage existing strengths, communicate other advantages
- Fresh, premium breads may break consumers out of their cycle
Bread Consumption and Frequency
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- Nearly universal bread consumption
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- Figure 34: Bread consumption, April 2018
- Increasing frequency of smaller segments
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- Figure 35: Repertoire of bread consumption, April 2018
- Figure 36: Bread consumption frequency, April 2018
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- Figure 37: Bread consumption, by bread consumption frequency – At least once daily, April 2018
- Parenthood, household size impactful to variety
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- Figure 38: Repertoire of bread consumption – 2 or less types and 6+ types, by parental status and household size, April 2018
Bread Uses
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- Brands can help consumers look past just mealtime use
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- Figure 39: Bread uses, April 2018
- Versatility important to young adults, parents
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- Figure 40: Bread uses, by age, parental status, and household size, April 2018
Bread Consumption Changes
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- Most consumers eating the same amount of bread
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- Figure 41: Bread consumption changes, April 2018
- Convenience and versatility key to increased consumption
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- Figure 42: Reasons for increased consumption, April 2018
- Carb-cutting hurting bread category
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- Figure 43: Reasons for decreased consumption, April 2018
- Younger men most likely to consume bread more often
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- Figure 44: Bread consumption changes, by gender and age, April 2018
Bread Attitudes
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- Product freshness, quality key to initiate trial
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- Figure 45: Bread attitudes, April 2018
- Men are more frequent yet steadfast consumers, women are ripe for trial
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- Figure 46: Bread attitudes, by gender and age, April 2018
- Higher income households willing to pay for premium products
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- Figure 47: Bread attitudes, by household income, April 2018
- Larger households interested in resealable packaging
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- Figure 48: Bread attitudes – Packaging that ensures freshness, by household size, April 2018
Bread Type Associations
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- Lack of excitement, nutrition in the category
- Category offers convenient options for any occasion
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- Figure 49: Correspondence Analysis – Bread type associations, April 2018
- Figure 50: Bread type associations, April 2018
- Older adults see the nutritional value of wheat
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- Figure 51: Bread type associations – Select associations of wheat loaf bread and white loaf bread, by age, April 2018
- Younger consumers seek snack options
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- Figure 52: Bread type associations – Good for a snack, by age, April 2018
Bread Type Consumption Drivers
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- Few attributes inspire increased consumption
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- Figure 53: Bread type consumption drivers, April 2018
- Low price, high fiber primary drivers of consumption
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- Figure 54: TURF analysis – Bread type consumption drivers, April 2018
- Younger men seek more complex mix of attributes
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- Figure 55: Bread type consumption drivers, by gender and age, April 2018
- Nutrition appeals to parents, Hispanics
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- Figure 56: Bread type consumption drivers, by parental status, April 2018
- Figure 57: Bread type consumption drivers, by Hispanic origin, April 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales of bread, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 70: Total US retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 71: Total US retail sales of bread, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
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- Figure 72: US supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 73: US sales of bread through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of bagels/bialys/english muffins/pita bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 78: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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