Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Falling sales of 100% juice and smoothies
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Sugar concerns are behind the decline of 100% juice
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- Figure 2: Reasons for not buying 100% fruit juice, April 2018
- Juice loses out to other drinks
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- Figure 3: Beverage associations, April 2018
- The opportunities
- iGens are interested in innovative juices
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- Figure 4: Juice product interest, by iGens, April 2018
- Parents are core consumers
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- Figure 5: Beverage purchases, by generation and parental status, April 2018
- Opportunity for less-sweet juices
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- Figure 6: CHAID analysis, juice attitudes, April 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Juice market trends downward
- Foodservice juices serve as a point of inspiration
- Taxes, hurricanes, and the FDA are all shaping the future of juice
Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecasted declines for juice market
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- 100% juice drags down total market
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothie, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothie, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 11: US per capita volume consumption of juice, juice drinks, and nectars, 2012-21
Market Perspective
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- Water sales skyrocket
- Performance/nutrition drinks go free-from
- Juice flavor inspiration comes from foodservice
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- Figure 12: Any juice consumption AFH, October 2016-March 2018
- Foodservice juice and smoothie flavor trends
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- Figure 13: Menu Matrix, juice ingredient flavors, top 10 flavors, Q1 2015-18
- Figure 14: Menu Matrix, juice ingredient flavors, top 11-20 flavors, Q1 2015-18
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- Figure 15: Menu Matrix, smoothie ingredient flavors, top 10 flavors, Q1 2015-18
- Figure 16: Menu Matrix, smoothie ingredient flavors, top 11-20 flavors, Q1 2015-18
Market Factors
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- No relief for the OJ market
- An unusually bad flu season benefits juice
- Soda taxes taper off but is the damage done?
- The future of fiber
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- 100% juice brands experience continued losses
- Premium juice and reformulated products show opportunity
- The future of juice includes hydration, relaxation, and sustainability
Company and Brand Sales of Juices
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- Most leading brands face declines
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks ending Feb. 25, 2018
- Sales decline across the board within the 100% juice segment
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- Figure 18: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks ending Feb. 25, 2018
- The juice drink market is highly fragmented
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks ending Feb. 25, 2018
- Strong decreases in smoothie market
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks ending Feb 25, 2018
What’s Working?
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- Kids juice brands change with the times
- Pomegranate juice stands out in the 100% juice market
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of POM Wonderful, 2014-17
- Figure 22: Attribute rating, POM Wonderful vs all juices, T2B 5-pt scale
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- Figure 23: Online ad, “POM Wonderful Presents: Impaled by a Dolphin and Better Than Ever”
- Brands capitalize on the popularity of coconut
- Coca-Cola still growing its lemonade sales
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- Figure 24: Purchase intent, lemonades vs all juices excluding lemonade, T2B 5-pt scale
- Figure 25: Attribute rating, lemonades vs all juices excluding lemonade, T2B 5-pt scale
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- Figure 26: Commercial “Little League. this is GOOD. Minute Maid”
- Suja leads the premium juice market
What’s Struggling?
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- Competition and sugar likely weakening smoothie market
- Major losses in 100% juice formats
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of 100% juice, by format, 2017-18
- Figure 28: MULO sales of 100% juice, refrigerated juices, 2017-18
- SS juice drinks fall victim to changing consumer preferences
What’s Next?
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- Cold pressed juices become accessible
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- Figure 29: Cold pressed juice launches, branded vs private label, 2013-18
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- Figure 30: 7-Select Go! Smart Organic Cold Pressed Juice
- Coconut opens the door for alternative plant-based waters
- Juice brands take up social causes
- Can juice break into the evening occasion?
- CBD creates new opportunities
- Floral juices can be the next trendy mixer
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- Figure 31: Cocktail ingredient flavors, top 10 floral flavors with strongest growth, Q1 2015-Q1 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Juice falls behind other drinks
- Sugar concerns are one of the biggest issues the juice market faces
- Innovative products represent an opportunity for growth
- Competing drinks outperform bottled smoothies
Beverage Purchases
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- Overall purchase incidence is high, but juices fall behind other drinks
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- Figure 32: Beverage purchases, April 2018
- Younger consumers drive juice drink sales
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- Figure 33: Beverage purchases, by generation, top five beverages purchased, indexed (excluding nets), April 2018
- Parents are key juice buyers
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- Figure 34: Beverage purchases, by generation and parental status, April 2018
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- Figure 35: Beverage purchases, by Millennial parents and gender, April 2018
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- Figure 36: Beverage purchases, by age of child (discrete choices), April 2018
Reasons for Not Buying 100% Fruit Juice
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- Sugar content deters juice purchases
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- Figure 37: Reasons for not buying 100% fruit juice, April 2018
- Women question the healthfulness of juice
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- Figure 38: Reasons for not buying 100% fruit juice, by gender, April 2018
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- Figure 39: Reasons for not buying 100% fruit juice, by gender and age, April 2018
Beverage Consumption by Daypart
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- Juice drinks are associated with afternoon occasions
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- Figure 40: 100% juice consumption by daypart, among drinkers, April 2018
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- Figure 41: Beverage consumption by daypart, among beverage drinkers, April 2018
Beverage Associations
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- Master of none?
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- Figure 42: Beverage associations, health/functionality associations, April 2018
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- Figure 43: Beverage associations, other associations, April 2018
Juice Important Factors
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- Clean labels and low sugar are critical
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- Figure 44: Important factors when purchasing juice, April 2018
- iGens/Millennials look for tertiary juice attributes
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- Figure 45: Important factors when purchasing juice, any rank, by generation, April 2018
- Millennial parents on the lookout for healthy juices
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- Figure 46: Important factors when purchasing juice, any rank, by generation and parental status, April 2018
Juice Product Interest
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- High interest in functional juices
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- Figure 47: Juice product interest, April 2018
- iGens want to chill out with juices
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- Figure 48: Juice product interest, by generation, April 2018
- Blends are a hit with moms
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- Figure 49: Juice product interest, by Millennial parents and gender, April 2018
- Set the trend with unique juices
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- Figure 50: Juice product interest, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2018
Bottled Smoothie Competitors
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- Many drinks satisfy similar needs
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- Figure 51: Bottled smoothie competitor appeal, April 2018
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- Figure 52: Bottled smoothie competitor appeal, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2018
- Bottled smoothie brands have difficulty reaching new consumers
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- Figure 53: Bottled smoothie competitor appeal, by bottled smoothie buyers and non-buyers, April 2018
Juice Attitudes
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- Consumers are paying attention to juice labels
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- Figure 54: Juice attitudes, April 2018
- A new juice sensation may appeal to iGens
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- Figure 55: Juice attitudes, by generation, April 2018
- Less-sweet juices may attract non-buyers
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- Figure 56: CHAID analysis, juice attitudes, April 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Purchase Intelligence
- Mintel Market Sizes
- Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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