Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The issues
- Timing is everything
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- Figure 1: Attitudes toward holiday shopping and holiday shopping behavior, April 2018
- Deal-seeking behavior dominates expectations
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- Figure 2: Attitudes toward holiday shopping and holiday research and planning, April 2018
- The opportunities
- Creating new sales events can give consumers reasons to shop outside the traditional timeframe
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- Figure 3: Holiday shopping behavior, by select demographics, April 2018
- Filling the gap of debunked retailers
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- Figure 4: Holiday purchases – Toys, by select demographics, April 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- November and December sales expected to deliver another positive holiday
- Consumers are feeling confident, leading to more spending
Market Size
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- 2018 is projecting to be a happy holiday sales season
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2008-18
- Figure 6: Total US retail sales* in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2008-18
Market Factors
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- Rising confidence could result in more spending
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- Figure 7: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-April 2018
- The cost of the holidays can limit spending
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- Figure 8: Consumer Price Index change from previous period, January 2007-March 2018
- Presence of children could influence spending
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- Figure 9: Households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers are embracing opportunities to get ahead
- Another specialty retailer bites the dust
- Give shoppers other reasons to shop
What’s Working?
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- Consumers are comfortable with the creep
- Pre-Thanksgiving promotions
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- Figure 10: Amazon Black Friday email, November 22 2017
- Figure 11: Walmart Black Friday deals, November 22, 2017
- Figure 12: Target Black Friday email campaign, November 22, 2017
- Figure 13: Email read rates, Black Friday (11/22-11/24) versus Cyber Monday (11/25-11/27), November 2017
- Off-season sales events continue to be popular
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- Figure 14: Nordstrom e-mail campaign, July 2017
- Figure 15: Amazon Prime Day email, July 11, 2017
- Figure 16: Amazon Prime Day emails (7/11/17-7/12/17) versus holiday emails (11/24/17-12/23/17), July and November 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Early exposure and oversaturation could result in less-impactful communication during the peak of the season
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- Figure 17: Various retailers holiday emails read rates, pre-and-post-Thanksgiving, November through December 2017
- The demise of toy stores
What’s Next?
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- Rethinking traditional timelines
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- Figure 18: JCPenney e-mail campaign, May 2018
- Figure 19: Wayfair e-mail campaign, April 2018
- Embracing the spirit of giving
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- Figure 20: Amazon e-mail, November 2017
- Figure 21: Macy’s e-mail, December 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Celebrants mostly plan to spend more or the same as last year
- Consumers are shopping around, and online is becoming a more popular holiday destination
- Top holiday purchases indicate consumers prioritize others over themselves
- Shoppers seek and even expect value
Planned Spending
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- Most consumers plan to spend more or the same on winter holidays
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- Figure 22: Planned spending, any winter holiday, April 2018
- Christmas celebration results in spending for most
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- Figure 23: Planned spending – Christmas, by select demographics, April 2018
- Celebrating, but not spending for New Year’s
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- Figure 24: Planned spending – New Year’s, by gender and age, April 2018
Retailers Shopped
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- Consumers expect to do more holiday shopping online
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- Figure 25: Retailers shopped, Any visitation, April 2018
- Amazon takes over the reign as the preferred holiday retailer
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- Figure 26: Retailers shopped, by generation, April 2018
- Women fulfilling a variety of holiday needs at a variety of retailers
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- Figure 27: Retailers shopped – Any visitation, by gender, April 2018
- Multicultural consumers shopping value-oriented retailers for holiday needs
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- Figure 28: Retailers shopped – Any visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2018
Holiday Purchases
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- Clothing, gift cards and toys top gifts in 2017
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- Figure 29: Items purchased, April 2018
- Impersonal or not, gift cards are a top purchase
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- Figure 30: Items purchased, by select demographics, April 2018
- Parents are buying toys, but what about grandparents?
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- Figure 31: Items purchased, by age and gender, April 2018
- Black consumers are purchasing fewer items
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- Figure 32: Items purchased, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2018
Holiday Research and Planning
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- Holiday shoppers are savvy
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- Figure 33: Holiday research and planning, April 2018
- Millennials are doing more cross-channel shopping
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- Figure 34: Holiday research and planning, by generation, April 2018
- Some shoppers are turning to social media for inspiration
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- Figure 35: Holiday research and planning, by select demographics, April 2018
Holiday Shopping Behavior
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- Shoppers are taking advantage of sales events, both in and out of the holiday season
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- Figure 36: Holiday shopping behavior, April 2018
- Younger generations prove holiday sales events are not a thing of the past
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- Figure 37: Holiday shopping behavior, by generation, April 2018
- Men stick to their budget, while women make more unexpected purchases
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- Figure 38: Holiday shopping behavior, by gender, April 2018
- Young adults treat themselves during the holidays
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- Figure 39: Holiday shopping behavior, by age, April 2018
- Multicultural shoppers practice both strategy and self-care
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- Figure 40: Holiday shopping behavior, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2018
Attitudes toward Holiday Shopping
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- Value seeking attitudes remain during the holidays
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- Figure 41: Attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2018
- Women approach holiday shopping with a thrifty attitude
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward holiday shopping, by gender and age, April 2018
- Young shoppers are comfortable with the creep
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward holiday shopping, by generation, April 2018
- Black shoppers prefer to shop in-store, while Hispanic shoppers seek convenience
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward holiday shopping, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 45: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 46: Planned spending, April 2018
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- Figure 47: Retailers Shopped, in-store versus online, April 2018
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- Figure 48: Reasons for shopping Amazon, April 2018
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