Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Record-setting flu season drives strong 2017-18 sales and market growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2012-22
- The issues
- Emphasis on value can limit market growth, constrain profit margins
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- Figure 2: Select attitudes towards private label, February 2018
- Some ailment sufferers are not engaged in prompt treatment
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- Figure 3: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatments, February 2018
- The opportunities
- Tactics can incentivize stock-up purchases in advance
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- Figure 4: Select stock-up incentives, February 2018
- Fully leverage natural trend to appeal to more shoppers
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- Figure 5: Select Natural product concerns, February 2018
- Ensure shoppers have easy access to the right products for their needs
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- Figure 6: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, February 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Strong flu season drives industry growth in 2017-18
- Flagship brands, ailment incidence drive segment growth
- Addressing allergen environments, flu shot incentives could influence remedy demand
- Birth rate, 65+ population, climate change to influence market
Market Size and Forecast
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- 2017-18 flu season drives growth, future will stabilize
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- All segments see growth in 2017 – especially cough/throat remedies
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Perspective
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- Environment modification could alter allergy treatment tactics
- Rising pet ownership could increase allergy sufferers, remedy demand
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- Figure 10: Number of pet owning households, 2006-16
- Flu shot incentives could stave off flu incidence levels
- Social media could be leveraged during strong flu seasons
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- Figure 11: Universe count for mentions of “flu,” by flu season (November-March) 2013-18
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- Figure 12: Topics for “Flu” mentions, Rolling 52-weeks 2016-17 Ending Mar. 9, 2018
- Figure 13: Topics for “#Flu2018” mentions, Rolling 52-weeks 2016-17 Ending Mar. 9, 2018
Market Factors
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- Fewer births may negatively affect remedy demand
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- Figure 14: Annual births, 2006-16
- Figure 15: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
- Growing 65+ population bodes well for preventative product demand
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- Figure 16: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2018-23
- Preliminary evidence shows number of allergy sufferers may rise
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Reckitt Benckiser leads market with Mucinex brand
- Private label, naturally-positioned remedies outperform
- Major allergy brands challenged by private label growth
- Private label and fast-acting flu remedy will impact the market long term
Company and Brand Sales of Cough, Cold, Flu, and Allergy Remedies
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- Reckitt Benckiser leads market through sales and share growth
- Bayer, Johnson & Johnson vie for second place
- Vicks brand drives P&G sales and market share gains
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- Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of cough, cold, flu, and allergy products, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Consumer trust, elevated offerings drive private label growth
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- Figure 18: Mulo sales of private label cough, cold, flu, and allergy remedies, by segment, rolling 52-weeks 2016-17
- Natural remedies leverage broader trends, experience growth
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of select natural cough, cold, flu, and allergy remedy brands, by brand, rolling 52-weeks 2016-17
- Record-setting flu season propels growth in multi-functional, flagship OTC brands
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of cold, sinus, and flu remedies, by select brands (cold, sinus, and flu remedy sales only), rolling 52 weeks 2016-17
What’s Struggling?
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- Fewer than half of ailment sufferers are comfortable with nasal sprays
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- Figure 21: Comfort using nasal spray, by adults with allergies, February 2018
- Flagship allergy brands struggle to keep pace with private label
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of allergy remedies, by select allergy brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016-17
What’s Next
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- Rising costs, value mindset will prompt continued private label growth
- New drug could limit flu duration, potentially remedy sales
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Illnesses are widespread
- OTC medications, rest are most common treatment methods
- Trust in private label is universal
- Price and convenience steer purchase location choice
- Tactics encourage consumers to proactively stock up on remedies
- Natural remedy concerns are relatively low, but some still doubt
- Most are engaged in treating symptoms; some delay or forego
Ailments Experienced
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- Cough, cold, and flu illnesses are widespread
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- Figure 23: Ailments experienced, February 2018
- Age, life stage drive higher ailment incidence among 18-34s
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- Figure 24: Ailments experienced, by age, February 2018
- Parents, especially moms, experience more ailments
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- Figure 25: Ailments experienced, by parental status, February 2018
- Higher flu incidence among Hispanics driven by fewer flu shots
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- Figure 26: Ailments experienced, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
Ailment Treatment Methods
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- Ailment sufferers seek easy and effective remedies
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- Figure 27: OTC medication, rest usage to treat ailments, February 2018
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- Figure 28: Home remedy usage, by ailment, February 2018
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- Figure 29: VMS, OTC homeopathic remedy usage, by ailment, February 2018
- Relatively few forego treatment for ailments altogether
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- Figure 30: Any remedy usage, by ailment, February 2018
- Natural lifestyles prompt natural remedy use among 18-44s
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- Figure 31: Ailment treatments, by age, February 2018
- Treating children’s ailments, younger age influence parents’ usage
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- Figure 32: Ailment treatments, by parental status, February 2018
Attitudes toward Private Label
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- The average consumer buys, trusts private label remedies
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- Figure 33: Attitudes towards private label, February 2018
- Some still need convincing of private label efficacy
- Confidence among mothers drives private label purchases
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- Figure 34: Select attitudes towards private label, by parental status and gender, February 2018
- Ad claims limit store brand penetration among Black consumers
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- Figure 35: Select attitudes towards private label, by race, February 2018
Purchase Location Influencers
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- Price and convenience matter more than shopping experience
- Store familiarity, product availability also important to many
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- Figure 36: Purchase location influencers, February 2018
- Flu sufferers express unique purchasing preferences
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- Figure 37: Purchase location influencers, by select ailment, February 2018
- Adults aged 55+ prioritize store familiarity due to established routines
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- Figure 38: Select purchase location influencers, by age, February 2018
Stock-up Incentives
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- Different tactics could incentivize remedy stock-up
- Targeting those with (or around) recent symptoms
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- Figure 39: Stock-up incentive: recent symptoms in self or household, February 2018
- Utilizing financial incentives to encourage stock-up
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- Figure 40: Stock-up incentives: finding a good deal and receiving a coupon, February 2018
- Inform consumers of ailment facts to prompt stock up
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- Figure 41: Stock-up incentives: illness related information, February 2018
- Fewer ailments, established behaviors prompt less interest among 55+s
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- Figure 42: Stock-up incentive: finding a good deal, by age, February 2018
- Black consumers respond more to ailment-related facts
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- Figure 43: Stock-up incentives: Ailment related information, by select race, February 2018
Natural Product Concerns
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- Concerns over natural remedies are present but relatively low
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- Figure 44: Natural product concerns, February 2018
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- Figure 45: Average price of cough, cold, flu, and allergy remedies, by natural claims, 52-weeks ending March 10, 2018
- Lifestyle, safety concerns influence parents’ natural perceptions
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- Figure 46: Natural product concerns, by parental status, February 2018
- Lifestyle provides context to Hispanic natural remedy perceptions
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- Figure 47: Natural product concerns, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
Attitudes towards Cough, Cold, Flu and Allergy Remedies
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- Symptom-based, timely treatments sought by majority
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- Figure 48: Select attitudes toward treatment, by flu ailment experienced within the last 12 months, February 2018
- Market ancillary products to those who forego symptom treatment
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- Figure 49: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, February 2018
- Adults aged 45+ more vigilant in symptom treatment
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- Figure 50: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, by age, February 2018
- Mothers toughen it out when illnesses occur
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- Figure 51: Select attitudes towards cough, cold, flu, and allergy treatment, by parental status and gender, February 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold/sinus remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold/sinus remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough/throat remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of cough/throat remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of allergy remedies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 60: Total US retail sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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- Figure 62: US supermarket sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 63: US drugstore sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 64: US sales of cough, cold/flu, and allergy remedies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 65: MULO sales of cold, sinus, and flu remedies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 66: MULO sales of cough and sore throat remedies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of allergy remedies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Correspondence Analysis – Cough, Cold, Flu and Allergy Remedies - April 2018
- Methodology
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- Figure 68: Correspondence Analysis – Ailments & treatment, February 2018
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- Figure 69: Ailments & treatment, February 2018
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