Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Total sales of cakes and sweet baked goods flat
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- Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
- Treating and special occasions will help future growth
- 2017 growth in cake sales due to higher prices
- Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
- Cutting sugar a major challenge for the market
- Income squeeze not necessarily bad news
- Companies and brands
- Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
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- Figure 2: Leading brands in cakes and cake bars retail market, share by value, 2016/17*
- Reduced sugar range launched by Mr Kipling
- Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence
- Dip in 2017 advertising for cakes and sweet baked goods
- Cadbury and Mr Kipling most trusted brands
- The consumer
- Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
- Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
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- Figure 3: Types of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
- Two thirds of less frequent buyers could be persuaded to buy more
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- Figure 4: Factors that would encourage more buying of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods, December 2017
- Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
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- Figure 5: Attributes most important when buying for yourself or for sharing with others, December 2017
- High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
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- Figure 6: Factors most important when buying cakes and sweet baked goods for a special occasion, December 2017
- At-work occasions and internet important for cake sales
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- Figure 7: Behaviour in relation to cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
- Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Scope for cakes to steal space on the menu from other sweet treats
- The facts
- The implications
- Broad range of attributes needed to capture people’s attention for different occasions
- The facts
- The implications
- Special occasions offer plenty of scope for adding value to market
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Total sales of cakes and sweet baked goods flat
- Treating and special occasions will help future growth
- Growth in cake sales due to higher prices
- Stronger growth in small than large cakes
- Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
- Baking at home still popular
- Cutting sugar a major challenge for the market
- PHE encourages healthier snacks for kids
- Income squeeze not necessarily bad news
- Ageing population presents a challenge to cakes
Market Size and Forecast
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- Total sales for cakes and sweet baked goods flat
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- Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
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- Figure 10: Total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2012-22
- Treating and special occasions will help future growth
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Growth in cake sales due to higher prices
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by major segment, 2012-22
- Stronger growth in small than large cakes
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- Figure 12: Total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2016 and 2017
- Few bright spots in sweet baked goods in 2017
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- Figure 13: Total UK retail value sales of pre-packed sweet baked goods, by types, 2016 and 2017
Market Drivers
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- Category blurring a feature in sweet treats
- Baking at home still popular
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- Figure 14: 'I bake cakes/sweet baked goods at home', by age, December 2017
- Cutting sugar a major challenge for market
- Sugar reduction targets set
- PHE encourages healthier snacking for kids
- Income squeeze not necessarily bad news for cakes
- Ageing population presents a challenge to cakes
- Growth in the child population
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- Figure 15: Trends in age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
- On-the-go range expansion helps Soreen
- Mr Kipling launches reduced sugar range
- Seasonal products make up a fifth of new launches
- Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence
- Dip in 2017 advertising for cakes and sweet baked goods
- Mr Kipling stand for good value
- Cadbury and Mr Kipling most trusted
- Soreen has healthier connotations
Market Share
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- Mr Kipling sees dip in sales
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- Figure 16: Leading brands in cakes and cake bars retail market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
- Sweet baked goods dominated by own-label
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- Figure 17: Leading brands in sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Bite-size products see more NPD activity
- Increasing range of flavours
- Healthier bites also being explored
- Reduced sugar variants still a rarity in cakes
- Cakes continue to target on-the-go snacking
- Seasonal products make up a fifth of new launches
- Summer range of cakes from Mr Kipling
- Halloween a big seasonal event for cakes
- Small tarts look to attract younger shoppers
- Choice of gluten-free cakes being expanded
- Biscuit and chocolate brands extend presence in cakes
- New flavours give hot cross buns a new twist
- Taking luxury and indulgence to new levels
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Further dip in advertising spending
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- Figure 18: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, 2014-17
- Advertising dominated by retailers
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- Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and sweet baked goods, by advertiser, 2014-17
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 20: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2018
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 21: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2018
- Brand attitudes: Quality image is a strength for Mr Kipling, Cadbury and Thorntons
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- Figure 22: Attitudes, by brand, January 2018
- Brand personality: Cadbury and Mr Kipling are the most fun brands
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- Figure 23: Brand personality – macro image, January 2018
- Thorntons is seen as the most indulgent and special
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- Figure 24: Brand personality – micro image, January 2018
- Brand analysis
- Cadbury Cakes seen as the most delicious
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- Figure 25: User profile of Cadbury Cakes, January 2018
- Thorntons Cakes is seen as the most indulgent brand
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- Figure 26: User profile of Thorntons Cakes, January 2018
- Mr Kipling seen as the most traditional brand
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- Figure 27: User profile of Mr Kipling, January 2018
- McVitie’s Cakes widely seen as an accessible and trusted brand
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- Figure 28: User profile of McVitie’s Cakes, January 2018
- Soreen can benefit from having stronger healthy associations
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- Figure 29: User profile of Soreen, January 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
- Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
- Two thirds of buyers could be persuaded to buy more
- Variety and single portion packs appeal
- Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
- Exciting flavours have the edge over traditional ones
- High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
- Plentiful toppings/fillings also important for special occasion treats
- At-work occasions and internet important for cake sales
- Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
Frequency of Eating and Buying
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- Cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
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- Figure 30: Number of different types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
- Small cakes and cake bars are most popular
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- Figure 31: Types of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods eaten in the last 3 months, December 2017
- Sweet treats are mostly eaten on an infrequent basis
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- Figure 32: Frequency of eating different types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2017
- Only a third of people buy at least once a week
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- Figure 33: Frequency of buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods in the last 3 months, December 2017
Factors That Would Encourage More Buying
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- Two thirds of buyers could be persuaded to buy more
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- Figure 34: Factors that would encourage more buying of cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods, December 2017
- Variety and single portion packs appeal
- Health-boosting ingredients can also encourage more buying
- Offering sampling encourages more buying
- In-store sampling would win over more than a fifth of infrequent buyers
- Sampling appeals more to those interested in unusual flavours
Most Important Product Attributes by Occasion
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- Being freshly baked gives products extra appeal
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- Figure 35: Attributes most important when buying for yourself or for sharing with others, December 2017
- Exciting flavours have the edge over traditional ones
- Healthier ingredients are more important for self-treating
- Bite-size cake formats an attraction for sharing
Factors Most Important When Buying for a Special Occasion
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- High-quality ingredients most important for special occasions
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- Figure 36: Factors most important when buying cakes and sweet baked goods for a special occasion, December 2017
- Strong visual appeal makes a difference
- Plentiful toppings/fillings also important for special occasion treats
Behaviour in Relation to Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods
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- At-work occasions important for cake sales
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- Figure 37: Behaviour in relation to cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
- Personalised cakes have further growth potential
- Millennials more likely to be influenced by social media
Attitudes towards Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods
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- Mood boosting a theme for promoting cakes
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- Figure 38: Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods, December 2017
- Room for more on-the-go options in cakes
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2017-22
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 40: Leading manufacturers in cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
- Figure 41: Leading manufacturers in sweet baked goods, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 42: New product launches in the cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2017), 2014-17
- Figure 43: New product launches in the cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2017), 2014-17
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