Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Category on track for continued modest growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2012-22
- Potato chip purchase near universal, tortilla chips have room to grow
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- Figure 2: Chips purchase, November 2017
- Chip purchasers can be creatures of habit
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- Figure 3: Factors influencing chips purchase, November 2017
- The opportunities
- Snacking dominates usage for both potato and tortilla chips
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- Figure 4: Chip occasions, November 2017
- Younger chip purchasers more likely to buy on impulse
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- Figure 5: Chip behaviors, by age, November 2017
- Adults 35-54, a key secondary target, express strong interest in concepts
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- Figure 6: Chip innovation areas, by age, November 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category on track for continued modest growth
- Potato chips account for majority of category sales
- Salty snacks maintain strong growth
- Snacking continues to grow more prevalent
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category on track for continued modest growth
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Potato chips account for majority of category sales
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- Figure 9: Share of potato and tortilla chips sales, by segment, 2017
- Tortilla chips drive growth
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- Figure 10: Sales of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, 2012-17
Market Perspective
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- Salty snacks maintain strong growth
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- Figure 11: Total US sales of salty snacks, by segment, 2012-17
Market Factors
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- Snacking continues to grow more prevalent
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- Figure 12: Snacking frequency, March 2017
- Number of households with children down for now
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- Figure 13: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- PepsiCo remains dominant
- Ruffles gains on shift to young male target
- Heat wave: Takis continues to gain on intensely hot flavors
- Continued decline for old-line regional chip brands
- Uglies: using blemished potatoes to combat food waste
Company Sales of Potato and Tortilla Chips
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- PepsiCo remains dominant
- Campbell’s purchase of Snyder’s-Lance may intensify competition
- Private label gains may reflect the weakness of smaller regional brands
- Sales of potato and tortilla chips by company
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- Figure 14: Multi-outlet sales of potato and tortilla chips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Ruffles gains on shift to young male target
- Heat wave: Takis continues to gain on intensely hot flavors
- On the Border continues to grow, branches into bold flavors
What’s Struggling?
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- Continued decline for old-line regional chip brands
- Sales of baked chips stagnate
What’s Next?
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- Cape Cod continues to push premiumization
- Uglies: using blemished potatoes to combat food waste
- Increasing emphasis on clean labels
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- Figure 15: Potato and tortilla chip packaging claims, 2013-2017
- Beyond flavor: textures and combinations
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Potato chip purchase near universal, tortilla chips have room to grow
- Chip purchasers can be creatures of habit
- Snacking dominates usage for both potato and tortilla chips
- Many chip purchasers guided by habit, but impulse could drive growth
- Restaurant style and spicy flavors draw interest, consistent with market success
- Okay to indulge on chips, up to a point
Chips Purchase
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- Potato chip purchase near universal, tortilla chips have room to grow
- Plain varieties purchased most widely, but category increasingly diverse
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- Figure 16: Chips purchase, November 2017
- Variety of chips purchased drops among older adults
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- Figure 17: Chips purchase, by age, November 2017
- Highest incidence in households with school-aged kids
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- Figure 18: Chips purchase, by presence and age of children, November 2017
- Tortilla chip purchase skews to White, Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 19: Chips purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
Factors Influencing Chips Purchase
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- Chip purchasers can be creatures of habit
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- Figure 20: Factors influencing chips purchase, November 2017
- Younger purchasers more interested in new flavors, dietary preferences
- Older shoppers more attuned to health measures
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- Figure 21: Factors influencing chips purchase, by age, November 2017
Chip Occasions
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- Snacking dominates usage for both potato and tortilla chips
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- Figure 22: Chip occasions, November 2017
Chip Behaviors
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- Many chip purchasers guided by habit, but impulse could drive growth
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- Figure 23: Chip behaviors, November 2017
- Younger chip purchasers more likely to buy on impulse
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- Figure 24: Chip behaviors, by age, November 2017
Chip Innovation Areas
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- Restaurant style and spicy flavors draw interest, consistent with market success
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- Figure 25: Chip Innovation areas, November 2017
- Adults 35-54, a key secondary target, express strong interest in concepts
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- Figure 26: Chip Innovation areas, by age, November 2017
Attitudes toward Chips
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- Okay to indulge on chips, up to a point
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- Figure 27: Attitudes toward chips, November 2017
- Those purchasing more are an opportunity for premium, all-natural chips
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- Figure 28: Attitudes toward chips, by change in amount purchased, November 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 29: Total US sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 30: Total US sales and forecast of potato chips, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 31: Total US sales and forecast of potato chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 34: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 35: Multi-outlet sales of potato chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 36: Multi-outlet sales of tortilla chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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