Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Fast casuals struggle to capture dinner appeal
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- Figure 1: Restaurant segment preference, by dining occasion, November 2017
- Chipotle needs to make an effort to reach broader demographics
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- Figure 2: Chipotle visitation, by gender and age, November 2017
- The opportunities
- Premium beverages allow fast casuals to serve more dayparts
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- Figure 3: Fast casual beverage areas of interest, by gender and age, November 2017
- Seafood a key menu opportunity for fast casuals
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- Figure 4: Fast casual restaurant interest, November 2017
- Fast casuals can promote premium snacks
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- Figure 5: Interest in snacking at fast food and fast casual restaurants, by age/household income and socioeconomic status, November 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Staying afloat with iGen trends
- QSRs combat fast casuals on the definition of value
- Quality control becomes more proactive
Market Perspective
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- The competitive landscape:
- Legacy segments bring a focus back to tradition
- Beverage operators accentuate key social experiences
- Retailers aim to make grocery shopping more than a routine chore
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- Figure 6: At home and away from home food sales, November 2014-November 2017
Market Factors
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- Maintaining quality when fresh, real produce is the norm
- Pinpointing iGen preferences
- Ride sharing is the norm
- International cuisine is less foreign
- Health is a lifestyle
Key Trends – What You Need to Know
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- Keep your eyes on the fast fine segment
- The flexibility of the common bowl
- Specialty concepts go mainstream
Fast Casual Menu Analysis
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- Moving beyond soda
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- Figure 7: Menu incidence of non-alcoholic beverages in fast casuals, O4 2015-Q4 2017
- Figure 8: Menu incidence of alcoholic beverages in fast casuals, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Middle Eastern and Mediterranean cuisine are having a moment in the spotlight
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- Figure 9: Growth and decline in menu incidence of menu item cuisine types in fast casuals, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Avocado momentum is not slowing down yet
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- Figure 10: Growth and decline in menu incidence of ingredients in fast casuals, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
What’s Working?
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- The fast fine movement gains steam
- What is it?
- Why is it growing?
- Restaurants leading the way:
- What’s next for this category?
- The evolution of the “bowl” meal
- What is it?
- Why is it growing?
- Restaurants leading the way:
- What’s next?
- The food hall expansion opportunity
- What is it?
- Why is it growing?
- Restaurants leading the way:
- What’s next?
What’s Struggling?
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- When a mission isn’t enough to rely on
- Words without trust lose their meaning
- Certain menu items aren’t meant to be promoted with the “real food” halo
What’s Next?
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- Former “niche” cuisines will continue to gain mainstream attention
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- Figure 11: Social media sentiment for “by Chloe,” January 2017-January 2018
- Figure 12: Social media persona for “by Chloe,” January 2017-January 2018
- Figure 13: Social media word cloud for “by Chloe,” January 2017-January 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Panera Bread maintains strong momentum
- Chipotle visitors are satisfied overall
- Parents are more likely to consider fast casuals an ideal dinner spot
Fast Casual Visitation
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- Panera Bread leads in visitation after a year of momentum
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- Figure 14: Fast casual restaurant visitation, November 2017
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- Figure 15: Fast casual restaurant visitation, by region, November 2017
- Chipotle’s core consumers are young men, but the chain needs to reach broader demographics
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- Figure 16: Chipotle restaurant visitation, by gender and age, November 2017
- Generation X can’t be overshadowed at Panera Bread
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- Figure 17: Panera Bread visitation, by gender and age, November 2017
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- Figure 18: Panera Bread visitation, by age and HH income, November 2017
Satisfaction across Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Noodles & Company
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- Methodology
- Overall satisfaction for Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Noodles & Company
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- Figure 19: Key drivers of satisfaction with Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Noodles & company, November 2017
- Despite Chipotle’s issues, consumers who visit the chain are satisfied
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- Figure 20: Key drivers of satisfaction with Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Noodles & company, November 2017
- Panera Bread is hitting all the right notes
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- Figure 21: Key drivers of satisfaction at Panera Bread, November 2017
- Noodles & Company could replace appetizers with snack-based offerings
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- Figure 22: Key drivers of satisfaction at Noodles & Company, November 2017
Fast Casual Associations
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- Traditional fast casual associations remain strong
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- Figure 23: Fast casual associations, November 2017
- iGens are accustomed to build-your-own concepts more so than other generations
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- Figure 24: Fast casual associations, by generation, November 2017
- Real food and quality ingredients are equally important to highlight
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- Figure 25: Fast casual associations, by generation, November 2017
- Fast casuals present a dinner opportunity for families, Black diners
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- Figure 26: Fast casual associations, by area, November 2017
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- Figure 27: Fast casual associations, by parents and nonparents, November 2017
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- Figure 28: Fast casual associations, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
Dining Out Occasions by Restaurant Segment
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- The formality of dinner is not ancient news quite yet
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- Figure 29: Correspondence analysis – Occasion preferences, November 2017
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- Figure 30: Restaurant segment preference, by dining occasion, November 2017
- Fast casuals can create a niche for less-traditional dining occasions
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- Figure 31: Happy hour restaurant segment preferences, among select demographics, November 2017
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- Figure 32: Interest in snacking at fast food and fast casual restaurants, by age/household income and socioeconomic status, November 2017
- Weeknight dinners present more opportunities than social weekend dinners, but younger consumers are more open to both
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- Figure 33: Restaurant segment preference for dinner on a Friday night, by generation and location, November 2017
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- Figure 34: Restaurant segment preference for a weeknight dinner, by parents and nonparents, November 2017
Fast Casual Restaurant Type Interest
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- Is 2018 going to be the year of seafood?
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- Figure 35: Fast casual restaurant type interest, November 2017
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- Figure 36: Fast casual restaurant interest, by fast casual restaurant interest, November 2017
- Women crave more healthful restaurants while men prefer comfort and indulgence
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- Figure 37: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by gender, November 2017
- Hispanics and Asians crave fast casuals they can identify with
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- Figure 38: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
- Pizza love is strong among iGens
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- Figure 39: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by generations, November 2017
- Fast casuals expose consumers in a lower socioeconomic status to various cuisines
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- Figure 40: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by socioeconomic status, November 2017
Fast Casual Opportunities
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- Transparency is still critical for fast casuals
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- Figure 41: Fast casual opportunities, November 2017
- It’s time to look beyond the soda fountain
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- Figure 42: Fast casual beverage opportunities, by age and gender, November 2017
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- Figure 43: Fast casual opportunities, by parents and nonparents, November 2017
- Family-style meals might appeal to Asian and Hispanic families
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- Figure 44: Fast casual opportunities, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- A note on socioeconomic levels
Appendix – Infegy Methodology
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- Theme definitions
Appendix – Demographic Profiles
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- Figure 45: Population by generation, 2013-23
- Figure 46: Generations, by race and Hispanic origin, 2018
- Figure 47: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2018
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Appendix – Key Driver Analysis
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- Interpretation of results
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- Figure 48: Level of satisfaction with Chipotle, Panera Bread, Noodles & Company – Key driver output, November 2017
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- Figure 49: Level of satisfaction with Chipotle – Key driver output, November 2017
- Figure 50: Level of satisfaction with Panera Bread – Key driver output, November 2017
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- Figure 51: Level of satisfaction with Noodles & Company – Key driver output, November 2017
Appendix – Correspondence Analysis
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- Methodology
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