Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Sales slide as National Lottery loses lustre
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2012/13-2022/23
- Scratchcards’ success story takes a knock
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- Figure 2: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2012/13-2016/17
- Society lotteries set pace in growth
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- Figure 3: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2012/13-2016/17
- The consumer
- Most eyes on a single prize
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- Figure 4: Lottery games played, October 2017
- Competition heats up in second tier
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- Figure 5: Lottery draw games played, October 2017
- Giving back becomes a more attractive look
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- Figure 6: Future interest in playing lottery games, October 2017
- Players happy to stick with retail habits
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- Figure 7: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, October 2017
- Easy to play – but hard to win
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, October 2017
- Jackpot drought sees high demand for shortened odds
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- Figure 9: Incentives to playing a new lottery game, October 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Have we reached peak scratchcard?
- The facts
- The implications
- Will new transparency promote giving over winning?
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales fall as players desert new National Lottery formats
- Scratchcards’ success story takes a knock
- Regulatory focus turns to transparency
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales slide as National Lottery loses lustre
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- Figure 10: UK lottery sales, 2012/13-2022/23
- Forecast
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- Figure 11: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2012/13-2022/23
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Instant-wins lose sales but gain share
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- Figure 12: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2012/13-2016/17
Market Drivers
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- Lottery most popular – but slots most valuable
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- Figure 13: Consumer expenditure* on gambling, April 2016-March 2017
- Online opportunities more open to all
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- Figure 14: National Lottery draw game and scratchcard/IWG sales, by channel, April 2016-March 2017
- Regulators looking for greater transparency
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- Figure 15: Regulations applying to society lotteries, January 2018
- Next focus on fundraising?
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- Figure 16: Lotteries’ contributions to good causes, 2012/13-2016/17
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Society lotteries set pace in growth
- Camelot sets out recovery plans
- Adspend rise levels off
Market Share
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- Society sector chips away at National Lottery’s lead
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- Figure 17: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2012/13-2016/17
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- New strategy to return National Lottery to growth
- Licence contest looks like heating up
- Non-stop lottery draws attention to instant wins
- Lotteries’ charity begins at home
- Marketing gets personal
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Spending slows after major players’ promotional push
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- Figure 18: UK lottery operators’ main monitored media advertising spend, 2014-16
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Only one game in town
- Society lotteries compete in smaller prize segment
- Giving back a more attractive look
- Players happy to stick with retail habits
- Playing is easy – but winning much less so
- Player preferences are cost and value conscious
Lottery Games Played
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- Most eyes on a single prize
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- Figure 19: Lottery games played, October 2017
- Scratchcards and IWGs must both defend and attack
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- Figure 20: Participation in lottery scratchcard and online instant win games, by age, October 2017
Lottery Draw Games
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- Competition heats up in second tier
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- Figure 21: Lottery draw games played, October 2017
Future Interest in Lottery Play
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- Taste for transparency to prioritise giving over winning?
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- Figure 22: Future interest in playing lottery games, October 2017
Methods of Lottery Play
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- Convenience factor keeps play personal
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- Figure 23: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, October 2017
- Supermarkets avoid the crowding-out effect
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- Figure 24: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets in person, October 2017
- Online players plan (and pay) ahead
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- Figure 25: Online lottery draw ticket purchasing habits, October 2017
Attitudes Towards Lottery Draw Games
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- Easy to play – hard to win
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- Figure 26: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, October 2017
- Regular purchasing adds up for all
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- Figure 27: Agreement with the statement ‘the lottery draw game I play most regularly is cheap to play’, by lottery draw games played, October 2017
Incentives to Lottery Game Play
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- Jackpot drought drives demand for shortened odds
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- Figure 28: Incentives to playing a new lottery game, October 2017
- Good cause focus to grow female player pool
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- Figure 29: Incentives to playing a new lottery game, by gender, October 2017
Appendix
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- Data sources
- Abbreviations
- Fan chart forecast
- Best/worst case chart
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- Figure 30: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2017/18-2022/23
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