Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- A quarter of the UK’s electricity supply now comes from renewable sources
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- Figure 1: UK Renewable penetration of electricity supply, 2012-16
- Solar PV overtakes onshore wind to become renewable technology with the largest installed capacity
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- Figure 2: UK Renewable energy market shares, by installed capacity, 2012 and 2017,
- Renewed government commitment urgently needed to help drive renewables industry forward
- Offshore wind dominates renewables development pipeline
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- Figure 3: Forecast renewable energy generation, 2016-35
- Market factors
- What we think
Key Insights
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- What is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK’s renewable energy policy?
- What is the current outlook for the UK solar PV market following the recent policy reset?
- How is the offshore wind sector progressing in bringing down costs?
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Methodology
- Abbreviations
- Market positioning
UK Economy
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- Overview
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- Figure 4: Forecast GDP development 2017-21
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- Figure 5: UK GDP quarterly development, 2004-17
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- House prices
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- Figure 6: UK House price changes, 2006-2017
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
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- Figure 7: UK manufacturing, 2014-17
- Business investment
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- Figure 8: UK GFCF, chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, 2004-17
- Imports
- Exports
Market Factors
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- Key points
- Government policy
- UK Energy Policy
- EU Renewables Directives
- Climate Change Act 2008
- New government policies urgently needed to achieve long-term emission reduction goals
- Levy Control Framework
- Renewable Energy Obligation (RO)
- Early closures under the RO for solar PV and onshore wind
- Feed-in-Tariffs (FITs)
- Government commits to fresh FIT review before end of 2017
- The Renewable Heat Incentive
- Consultation and review of the RHI scheme
- Electricity Market Reform (CfD and Capacity Market)
- First CfD auction concludes in February 2015
- Second CfD auction dedicated to pot two technologies
- Second CfD auction winning bids dominated by offshore wind, which has seen a dramatic fall in costs
Market Size Overview
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- Key points
- Overview
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- Figure 9: Analysis of electricity supplied in the UK, by type of fuel used in generation, 2011-16
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- Figure 10: UK renewable penetration of electricity generation, 2012-16
- Figure 11: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2011-16
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- Figure 12: UK Renewable energy market shares, by installed capacity, 2012 and 2017
Wind Generation
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- Key points
- Overview
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- Figure 13: UK onshore and offshore wind energy generation capacity, 2012 and 2017
- Onshore wind
- Early closure of RO for onshore wind
- Onshore wind farms wing big in first CfD auction, but excluded from second auction in 2017
- Small-scale onshore wind installations supported by FIT scheme
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- Figure 14: Cumulative FIT wind installations , 2017-17
- Offshore wind
- offshore wind farms operational in UK
- UK is leading offshore wind market in Europe
- Green Investment Bank to boost investment in offshore wind
- Offshore wind sees significant cost reductions
- Result of second CfD auction reveal further cost reductions of offshore wind
- Turbine sizes are increasing, enabling developers to slash costs of offshore wind farms
- Wind generation capacity and generation
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- Figure 15: UK wind energy capacity, 2012-17
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- Figure 16: UK wind energy generation, 2012-17
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- Figure 17: UK wind energy capacity, by country 2013-17
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- Figure 18: UK wind generation development pipeline, as of July 2017
Shoreline Wave/Tidal Generation
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- Key points
- Overview
- The Crown Estate licences wave and tidal sites to help unlock opportunities
- Government review concludes that tidal lagoons can play a cost effective role in the UK’s energy mix
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- Figure 19: UK wave energy capacity and generation, 2012-17
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- Figure 20: UK wave and tidal capacity in development pipeline, as of July 2017
Photovoltaic Generation
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- Key points
- Overview
- Ground-mounted sector moves into post-subsidy phase
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- Figure 21: Photovoltaic capacity installed in Great Britain, by type, 2011-16
- Figure 22: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2010-17
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- Figure 23: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2010-17
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- Figure 24: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme 2010-17
- Solar PV pipeline
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- Figure 25: UK photovoltaics development pipeline, as of July 2017
Hydro Generation
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- Key points
- Overview
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- Figure 26: UK hydro energy capacity, 2012-17
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- Figure 27: UK hydro energy generation, 2012-17
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- Figure 28: UK hydro energy generation, 2012-16
- Figure 29: UK hydro electricity capacity, by country 2014-17
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- Figure 30: UK hydro electricity development pipeline, as of July 2017
Bioenergy Electricity Generation
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- Key points
- Overview
- Recent government policy changes affecting the bioenergy sector
- Landfill gas
- Sewage sludge digestion
- Energy from waste
- Advanced conversion technology (ACT) among winning bids in both CfD allocation rounds
- Animal biomass
- Anaerobic digestions
- Co-firing and biomass
- UK government-commissioned report positive on biomass
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- Figure 31: UK bioenergy installed capacity, 2012-17
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- Figure 32: UK bioenergy and waste generation energy capacity, as of end of March 2017
- Figure 33: UK bioenergy generation, 2012-17
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- Figure 34: UK bioenergy capacity, by country, 2017
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- Figure 35: UK bioenergy development pipeline, as of July 2017
- Figure 36: UK bioenergy development pipeline, as of July 2017
Electricity Usage
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- Key points
- Introduction
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- Figure 37: UK final energy consumption, by type of Fuel, 1970-16
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- Figure 38: UK total energy consumption, by sector, 1970-16
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- Figure 39: UK usage of energy, 2016
- Industrial
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- Figure 40: UK industrial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
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- Figure 41: UK industrial energy consumption, by sector, 1990-16
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- Figure 42: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2000-16
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- Figure 43: UK industrial electricity consumption, by sector, 2016
- Transport
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- Figure 44: UK transport energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
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- Figure 45: UK transport energy consumption, by sector, 1970-16
- Domestic
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- Figure 46: UK domestic energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
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- Figure 47: UK domestic energy consumption, 1970-16
- Figure 48: UK domestic energy consumption efficiency, 1970-16
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- Figure 49: UK domestic energy consumption, by activity, 1990-16
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- Figure 50: UK household electricity usage on domestic appliances, 1970-16
- Commerce/services
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- Figure 51: UK commercial and services energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-16
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- Figure 52: UK public administration energy consumption, by type of fuel, 1970-15
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- Figure 53: UK commercial energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2012-16
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- Figure 54: UK agricultural energy consumption, by type of fuel, 2012-16
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- Figure 55: Detailed service sector energy consumption, by activity and type of use, 2016
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- Figure 56: Detailed service sector electricity consumption, by activity and type of use, 2016
Company Profiles
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- Key points
- Company profiles
A Shade Greener
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- Company strategy and outlook
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- Figure 57: Financial analysis of A Shade Greener, 2012-16
Biogen (UK)
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- Company strategy and outlook
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- Figure 58: Financial analysis of Biogen (UK), 2011-15
British Solar Renewables
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- Company review & outlook
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- Figure 59: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2012-16
Conergy UK
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- Company strategy and outlook
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- Figure 60: Financial analysis of Conergy UK, 2012-15
First Hydro Company
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- Figure 61: Financial analysis of First Hydro Company, 2012-16
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Good Energy Group
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- Company strategy
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- Figure 62: Financial analysis of Good Energy Group, 2012-16
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- Figure 63: Turnover analysis of Good Energy Group, by segment, 2012-16
Lightsource Renewable Energy Holdings
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- Organisational restructuring and management buy-out
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- Table: Financial analysis of Elios Renewable Energy, 2012-15
- Company strategy:
ScottishPower Renewables
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- Figure 64: Financial analysis of ScottishPower Renewables, 2012-16
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SSE
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- Renewables energy portfolio
- Company strategy and outlook
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- Figure 65: Financial analysis of SSE, 2013-17
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- Figure 66: SSE revenue segmental analysis, 2016
Solar Century
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- IKEA teams up with Solarcentury to offer residential solar solutions
- Solarcentury looking for further international expansion as UK market is hit by green cuts
- Company review and outlook
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- Figure 67: Financial analysis of Solar Century Holdings, 2012-16
Tamar Energy
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- Company review and outlook:
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- Figure 68: Financial analysis of Tamar Energy, 2012-16
Vattenfall Wind Power
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- Company outlook and strategy
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- Figure 69: Financial analysis of Vattenfall Wind Power, 2011-15
Vestas-Celtic Wind Technology
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- Company review and outlook
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- Figure 70: Financial analysis of Vestas-Celtic Wind Technology, 2011-15
Forecast
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- Key points
- The market
- Government policy
- New government policies urgently needed to achieve long-term emission reduction goals
- Government slashes support for more mature renewable technologies, including onshore wind and solar PV
- ...But continues to back offshore wind, supported by rapidly falling costs
- Upcoming Clean Growth Plan presents opportunity for government to set out long-term clean energy policies
- Market prospects
- Overview
- Tentative signs of investor confidence returning in the UK renewables sector
- Energy storage to play key role in transition to clean electricity supply system
- BEIS and Ofgem set out plans for major upgrade of the UK’s energy systems, including the removal of barriers to storage
- Government unveils £246 million battery investment strategy in July 2017
- Renewables capacity development pipeline
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- Figure 71: Renewables capacity development pipeline, as of August 2017
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- Figure 72: Forecast renewable electricity generation, 2016-35
- Future potential energy mix
- National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios
- Consumer Power scenario:
- Steady State scenario:
- Two Degrees scenario:
- Slow Progression scenario:
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- Figure 73: Annual power demand in Great Britain, 2017-42
- Electric cars could fuel huge demand for power over the next 30 years
- Electricity storage to increase, but at a more moderate levels than National Grid previously predicted
- Future Potential Energy Mix
- Renewables
- Nuclear
- Thermal plants
- Interconnectors
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- Figure 74: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “slow progression” scenario, by source, 2017-42
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- Figure 75: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “two degrees” scenario, by source, 2017-42
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- Figure 76: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “steady state” scenario, by source, 2017-42
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- Figure 77: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “consumer power” scenario, by source, 2017-42
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- Figure 78: Future potential energy mix in 2037, by scenario
Further Sources & Contacts
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- Trade associations & regulatory bodies
- The Anaerobic Digestion and Biogas Association
- Association of Electricity Producers
- British Hydropower Association
- British Photovoltaic Association
- Energy Networks Association
- Energy Industries Council
- Energy Retail Association
- Environmental Services Association
- European Photovoltaic Industry Association
- European Solar Thermal Industry Federation
- European Wind Energy Association
- Micropower Council
- Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem)
- Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Scotland (Ofgem Scotland)
- Renewable Energy Association
- Solar Trade Association
- Trade exhibitions
- All-Energy Exhibition & Conference 2018
- edie live 2018
- Solar & Storage Live 2017
- Trade magazines
- Energy Now
- Real Power
- Renewable Energy Focus
- Renewable Energy Installer
- Resource
- Solar Business Focus
- Solar UK
- Solar International
- Wind Energy Network
- Wind Power Monthly
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