Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Steady declines continue for cereal category
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2011-21
- Despite declining sales, cereal incidence remains high
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- Figure 2: Cereal consumption, June 2017
- Breakfast remains a foundation
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- Figure 3: Cereal use occasions, June 2017
- The opportunities
- An opportunity to increase snacking consumption among young adults
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- Figure 4: Cereal use occasions, by age, June 2017
- Encouraging cereal customization
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- Figure 5: Behaviors, by change in consumption of heavily sweetened cereal and hot oatmeal, June 2017
- Stronger attitudes among young adults point to problems and opportunities
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- Figure 6: Attitudes – Any agree, by age, June 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Steady declines continue for cereal category
- Hot cereal sales turn negative, consistent with trend in cold cereal
Market Size and Forecast
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- Steady declines continue for cereal category
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Cold cereal dominates category sales
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- Figure 9: Share of hot and cold cereal, by segment, 2017
- Hot cereal sales turn negative, consistent with trend in cold cereal
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- Figure 10: Sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, 2016-17
Market Perspective
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- Widening array of alternatives for breakfast
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- Figure 11: Breakfast food purchase, May 2016
- Hispanics, particularly Millennials, opt for frozen breakfast options
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- Figure 12: US population by Hispanic origin, 2017
- Number of households with children continues decline
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- Figure 13: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Top sugary cereals maintain growth
- A few small competitors thrive in category dominated by giants
- Store brands fall faster than rest of category
- Better-for-you brands pace category decline
Company Sales of Hot and Cold Cereal
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- Big four dominate category
- Kellogg’s mains top spot
- Dual focus on health and taste for General Mills
- PepsiCo cereal sales slow
- Sales of hot and cold cereal by company
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- Figure 14: Sales of hot and cold cereal, by company, 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Malt-O-Meal bagged cereals gain momentum under Post ownership
- Top sugary cereals maintain growth
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- Figure 15: MULO sales of select sweetened cereals, 2017
- A few small competitors thrive in category dominated by giants
- Nature’s Path focuses on organic cold and hot cereal
- Bob’s Red Mill highlights whole grains and traditional milling methods
- KIND increases presence in cereal aisle
What’s Struggling?
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- Store brands fall faster than rest of category
- Better-for-you brands pace category decline
What’s Next?
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- Kellogg’s NYC an effort to ignite cereal creativity
- Personalized cereal
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Despite declining sales, cereal incidence remains high
- Breakfast remains a foundation
- Taste outweighs other factors by a wide margin
- Younger adults more likely to be interested in variety
- Untapped potential for snacking
Cereal Consumption
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- Despite declining sales, cereal incidence remains high
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- Figure 16: Cereal consumption, June 2017
- Young adults eat wider variety of cereals
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- Figure 17: Cereal consumption, by age, June 2017
- Many report increasing consumption of healthy cereals
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- Figure 18: Changes in cereal consumption, June 2017
Use Occasions
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- Breakfast remains a foundation
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- Figure 19: Cereal use occasions, June 2017
- An opportunity to increase snacking consumption among young adults
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- Figure 20: Cereal use occasions, by age, June 2017
- More occasions for those increasing consumption
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- Figure 21: Cereal use occasions, by change in consumption of heavily sweetened cereal, June 2017
Purchase Factors
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- Taste outweighs other factors by a wide margin
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- Figure 22: Purchase factors – Cold cereal, June 2017
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- Figure 23: Purchase factors – Hot cereal, June 2017
- Purchase factors signal generational shift in dietary preferences
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- Figure 24: Purchase factors – Cold cereal, by age, June 2017
- Health perception may be driving increased hot cereal consumption
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- Figure 25: Purchase factors – Hot cereal, by change in hot oatmeal consumption, June 2017
Behaviors
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- Younger adults more likely to be interested in variety
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- Figure 26: Behaviors, by age, June 2017
- Opportunity to encourage greater cereal creativity
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- Figure 27: Behaviors, by change in consumption of heavily sweetened cereal and hot oatmeal, June 2017
Attitudes
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- Untapped potential for snacking
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- Figure 28: Attitudes, June 2017
- Stronger attitudes among young adults point to problems and opportunities
- Positives: a great snack, childhood favorites
- Negatives: not filling or portable enough
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- Figure 29: Attitudes – Any agree, by age, June 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 30: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 31: Total US sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 34: Sales of cold cereal, by company, 2016 and 2017
- Figure 35: Sales of hot cereal, by company, 2016 and 2017
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