Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Market Size
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- Figure 1: UK Residential Care Market, by Value, 2013-2017, (£ Million)
- Figure 2: UK Residential Care Market, by Number of Registered Care Homes and Number of Care Home Places, 2013-2017, (Homes in Units and Places in 000s)
- Market Trends
- Old age support ratio anticipated to continue to decline despite planned changes to pension age
- Staffing pressures continue to emerge
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- Figure 3: Annual Workforce Turnover Rates in the Adult Residential Care Sector, England, 2016 and 2017, by Employee Position, (%)
- CQC inspections continue to find a gap in the quality of service provision
- Cost of the average care home residency has reached half the value of a typical UK property
- Regional Analysis
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- Figure 4: Local Authority-supported Adults in Residential and Nursing Care, by Region, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (Number of People)
- Market Factors
- Increase in the number of elderly people and changes to the pension system will affect how the current system operates
- Rising employer costs, alongside stagnant care fee increases, are putting service provision under pressure
- Announcements following the start of Brexit negotiations have not eased concerns regarding potential staff shortages
- The Consumer
- Nearly seven in 10 people have not thought about how they would pay for care
- Performance ratings and close location of care homes influence choice
- Four in 10 people would consider receiving care at an extra care housing site
- Negative media reports present a huge industry challenge
- Companies
- Forecast
- Market value forecast to rise by 5% by 2022
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- Figure 5: Forecast Segmentation of the UK Residential and Nursing Care Market, by Type of Purchaser, 2018-22, (£ Million)
- What We Think
Key Insights
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- Is the additional funding announced by the government in the March 2017 Budget, as well as an increase in council tax rates, enough to ensure satisfactory provision of residential care?
- Are the NHS and social care providers working together to help improve the overall social care system?
- How will demographic changes provide industry opportunities going forward?
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Methodology
- Abbreviations
- Market Positioning
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- Figure 6: Elderly (65+) Population in the UK, by Country, 1996, 2006 and 2016, (000 People)
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- Figure 7: Elderly Population in the UK, 1996, 2006 and 2016, (000 People)
UK Economy
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- Key Points
- Overview
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- Figure 8: UK GDP, 2007-2017, (% Quarterly Growth and GDP in £ Billion)
- Figure 9: UK Output, by Industry, 2008-2017, (Index 2013 = 100)
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- Figure 10: Quarters after GDP Peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008, (Number of Quarters and GDP as % of PreDownturn Peak)
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- House prices
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- Figure 11: UK House Price changes, 2006-2017, (12-month % change)
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
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- Figure 12: UK Manufacturing, 2013-16, (Index, 2012 = 100)
- Business investment
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- Figure 13: UK GFCF 2006-17, (£ Million)
- Imports
- Exports
Market Factors
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- Key Points
- Increase in the number of elderly people and changes to the pension system will affect how the current system operates
- Rising employer costs, alongside stagnant care fee increases, are putting service provision under pressure
- Announcements following the start of Brexit negotiations have not eased concerns regarding potential staff shortages
- CQC regulatory fees
- Legislation
- Care Standards Act
- Regulation and Inspection Bill (Wales)
- The Care Act 2014 and Better Care Fund
- It had been planned that from April 2016:
- CQC and Market Oversight
- Care Certificate
- Pensions Act
- The Carers’ Strategy
- Other legislation
Market Size
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- Key Points
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- Figure 14: The UK Residential Care Market, by Value, 2013-2017, (£ Million)
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- Figure 15: UK Residential Care Market, by Value, 2013-2017, (£ Million)
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- Figure 16: The UK Residential Care Market, by Number of Registered Care Homes, 2013-17, (Units)
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- Figure 17: UK Residential Care Market, by Number of Registered Care Homes, 2013-2017, (Units)
- Figure 18: The UK Residential Care Market, by Number of Registered Places, 2013-17, (000)
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- Figure 19: Average Number of Places, Revenue per Care Home and Revenue per Place, UK, 201317, (Average Number of Places, Revenue in £000)
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- Figure 20: Revenue per Care Home and per Place, UK, 2013-2017, (Revenue per Place in £ and per Care Home in £000)
- Market Segmentation
- Accommodation Type
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- Figure 21: Segmentation of the UK Residential Care Market, by Type of Accommodation, 2013-17, (Number of Homes, Sheltered Housing in 000 units)
- Care Purchaser
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- Figure 22: Segmentation of the UK Residential Care Market, by Type of Purchaser, 2013-17, (£ Million)
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- Figure 23: Segmentation of the UK Residential Care Market, by Type of Purchaser, 2013 and 2017, (£ Million)
- Provider Type
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- Figure 25: Segmentation of the UK Residential Care Market, by Type of Provider, 2013-2017, (£ Million)
Local Authority Commissioned Care
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- Key Points
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- Figure 26: Number of Local Authority Funded Adults in Care Homes, by Type of Provider, 2012-16, (Number of Residents)
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- Figure 27: Number of Local Authority-funded Adults in Care Homes, by Independent Provider, 2012-2016, (Number of Residents)
- Additional government funding allocated to adult social care unlikely to fill the funding gap
- Local Authority Expenditure
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- Figure 28: Segmentation of Local Authority-Commissioned Residential and Nursing Care Expenditure, by Provider and Client Type, 2013-17, (£ Million)
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- Figure 29: Segmentation of Local Authority-Commissioned Residential and Nursing Care Expenditure, by Provider and Client Type, 2013-17, (£ Million)
- Older people (65+) expenditure
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- Figure 30: Segmentation of Local Authority Expenditure on Residential Care Services for Older People (65+), by Service Type, 2013-17, (£ Million)
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- Figure 31: Segmentation of Local Authority Expenditure on Residential Care Services for Older People (65+), by Service Type, 2013-2017, (£ Million)
- Adults aged 18-64 expenditure
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- Figure 32: Segmentation of Local Authority Expenditure on Residential Care Services for Adults Aged 18-64, by Service Type, 2013-17, (£ Million)
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- Figure 33: Segmentation of Local Authority Expenditure on Residential Care Services for Adults Aged 18-64, by Care Need Type, 2013-2017, (£ Million)
- Regional Analysis
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- Figure 34: Local Authority-Supported Adults in Residential and Nursing Care, by Region, 2012/13-2016/17, (Number of People)
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- Figure 35: Local Authority-Supported Adults in Residential and Nursing Care, by Region, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (Number of People)
- Figure 36: Local Authority-Supported Adults in Independent Sector Residential Care, by Region, 2012/13-2016/17, (Number of People)
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- Figure 37: Local Authority-Supported Adults in Independent Sector Residential Care, by Region, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (Number of People)
- Figure 38: Local Authority-Supported Adults in LA-staffed Residential Care, by Region, 2012/13-2016/17, (Number of People)
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- Figure 39: Local Authority-Supported Adults in LA-Staffed Residential Care, by Region, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (Number of People)
- Figure 40: Local Authority-Supported Adults in Nursing Care, by Region, 2012/13-2016/17, (Number of People)
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- Figure 41: Local Authority-Supported Adults in Nursing Care, by Region, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (Number of People)
NHS Care
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- Key Points
- Personal budgets
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- Figure 42: Segmentation of NHS Expenditure on Residential and Nursing Care, by Provider Type, 2013-17, (£ Million)
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- Figure 43: Segmentation of NHS Expenditure on Residential and Nursing Care, by Provider Type, 2013-2017, (£ Million)
Private Care Purchasers
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- Key Points
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- Figure 44: Private Expenditure on Residential and Nursing Care, 2013-17, (£ Million and % Market Share)
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- Figure 45: Private Expenditure on Residential and Nursing Care, 2013-17, (£ Million)
Sheltered Housing
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- Key Points
- Government funding
- Market size
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- Figure 46: The Development of Sheltered Housing in the UK, 2013-17, (000 Units and % Change)
- Figure 47: Development of Sheltered Housing in the UK, 2013-2017, (000 Units)
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- Figure 48: Segmentation of Sheltered Housing in the UK, by Sector and Region, 2017, (000 Units)
- Extra Care Housing
- Market development
- The key features of extra care housing are:
- Market size
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- Figure 49: Segmentation of Extra Care Housing in England, by Purchasing Type and Region, 2016, (Units)
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- Figure 50: Segmentation of Extra Care Housing in England, by Purchasing Type and Region, 2016, (Units)
Market Trends
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- Key Points
- Old age support ratio anticipated to continue to decline despite planned changes to pension age
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- Figure 51: UK Population Projections, by Age Group, 20172041, (000 people)
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- Figure 52: Estimated and Projected Age Structure of the United Kingdom population, by Sex, Mid-2017 and Mid-2041, (Thousands)
- The gap between care costs and fees continue to burden delivery of care services as staffing costs add further operational expense
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- Figure 53: Annual Workforce Turnover Rates in the Adult Residential Care Sector, England, 2016 and 2017, by Employee Position, (%)
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- Figure 54: Annual Workforce Turnover Rates in the Adult Residential Care Sector, England, 2016 and 2017, by Employee Position, (%)
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- Figure 55: Average Annual Pay in the Adult Residential Care Sector, England, 2016 and 2017, by Employee Position, (£)
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- Figure 56: Average Annual Pay in the Adult Residential Care Sector, England, 2016 and 2017, by Employee Position, (£)
- CQC inspections continue to find a gap in the quality of service provision
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- Figure 57: CQC Inspection Outcomes, England, 2014-2017, (Rating and % of Total Inspections)
- Figure 58: CQC Inspection Outcomes, England, 2014-2017, (Rating and % of Total Inspections)
- Cost of the average care home residency has reached half the value of a typical UK property
- Care home profitability rises for first time in four years, as improving occupancy rates finally impacts earnings
Supplier Opportunities
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- Key Points
- Care home property market
- Purpose-built care homes
- Supply of goods
- Efficiency
- Demography and health trends
- Self-funder market
- Contract/purchasing negotiation
The Consumer – Care Payment
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- Key Points
- Nearly seven in 10 people have not thought about how they would pay for care
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- Figure 59: Residential Care Payment Plans, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
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- Figure 60: Residential Care Payment Plans, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
- Half of over-65s have considered the financial consequences of care
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- Figure 61: Residential Care Payment Plans, by Age and Gender, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
- Personal savings and pension income expected to fund long-term care
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- Figure 62: Residential Care Payment Method, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
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- Figure 63: Residential Care Payment Method, June 2017, (% of Respondents)
The Consumer – Choosing a Home
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- Key Points
- Performance ratings and close location of care homes influence choice
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- Figure 64: Residential Care Home Choice Factors, by Rank of Importance, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
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- Figure 65: Residential Care Home Choice Factors, by Most Important Factor, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
The Consumer – Extra Care Housing
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- Key Points
- Four in 10 people would consider receiving care at an extra care housing site
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- Figure 66: Extra Care Housing, June 2017, (% of Respondents)
The Consumer – Care Home Opinion
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- Key Points
- Negative media reports present a huge industry challenge
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- Figure 67: Residential Care Home Opinion, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
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- Figure 68: Residential Care Home Opinion, June 2017, (% of Respondents who agreed with statement)
- Women have stronger opinion on negative media reports and the inclusion of CCTV in homes
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- Figure 69: Residential Care Home Opinion, by Gender, June 2017 (% of Respondents)
Industry Structure
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- Key Points
- Industry Development
- Care home closures reach highest ever level as financial pressures continue to build
- CMA investigation highlights issues
- Possibility of a ‘three-tier’ system still evident in the industry
- M&A activity
- Industry Structure
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- Figure 70: Analysis of the Changes in the Structure of the Residential Nursing Care Activities Industry, 2012-2016 (Number of Outlets and Businesses)
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- Figure 71: Analysis of the Changes in the Structure of the Residential Care Activities for the Elderly and Disabled Industry, 2012-2016 (Number of Outlets and Businesses)
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- Figure 72: Analysis of the Changes in the Structure of the Hospital Activities - Medical Nursing Home Activities Industry, 2012-2016 (Number of Outlets and Businesses)
- Structure by Employment
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- Figure 73: Analysis of the Employment Structure of the Residential Nursing Care Activities Industry, 2015-2016, (Number of Outlets and Outlet Employment Size)
- Figure 74: Analysis of the Employment Structure of the Residential Care Activities for the Elderly and Disabled Industry, 2015-2016 (Number of Outlets and Outlet Employment Size)
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- Figure 75: Analysis of the Employment Structure of the Hospital Activities - Medical Nursing Home Activities Industry, 2015-2016 (Number of Outlets and Outlet Employment Size)
- Structure by Turnover
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- Figure 76: Analysis of the Financial Structure of the Residential Nursing Care Activities Industry, 2015-2016, (£ 000 and % of Total Turnover)
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- Figure 77: Analysis of the Financial Structure of the Residential Care Activities for the Elderly and Disabled Industry, 2015-2016 (£ 000 and % of Total Turnover)
- Figure 78: Analysis of the Financial Structure of the Hospital Activities - Medical Nursing Home Activities Industry, 2015-2016, (£ 000 and % of Total Turnover)
Company Profiles
Abbeyfield Society
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- Figure 79: Financial Analysis of Abbeyfield Society, 2012-16, (£000)
- Company Strategy
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Anchor Trust
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- Figure 80: Financial Analysis of Anchor Trust, 2012-16, (£ Million)
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Avante Care and Support (formerly Avante Partnership)
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- Figure 81: Financial Analysis of Avante Care & Support, 2012-16 (£ Million)
- Company Strategy
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Barchester Healthcare
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- Figure 82: Financial Analysis of Barchester Healthcare, 2011-15, (£ 000)
- Company Strategy
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Bupa
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- Figure 83: Financial Analysis of Bupa, 2012-16, (£ Million)
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- Figure 84: Divisional Analysis of Bupa, 2012-16, (£ Million)
- Company Strategy
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Bupa Care Homes (CFG)
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- Company Strategy
Care UK
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- Figure 85: Financial Analysis of Care UK, 2012-16, (£ Million)
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- Figure 86: Revenue Breakdown of Care UK, by Division, 2015-16, (£ Million)
- Company Strategy
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Four Seasons Health Care
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- Figure 87: Financial Analysis of Four Seasons Health Care, 2012-16, (£ Million)
- Company Strategy
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Future Life Group (formerly known as Embrace)
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- Figure 88: Financial Analysis of Future Life Group (formerly Embrace), 2014-16, (£ 000)
- Company Strategy
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HC-One
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- Figure 89: Financial Analysis of HC-One, 2012-16, (£ Million)
- Company Strategy
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Housing & Care 21
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- Figure 90: Financial Analysis of Housing & Care 21 (formerly Housing 21), 2012-2016, (£ Million)
- Company Strategy
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Methodist Homes
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- Figure 91: Financial Analysis of Methodist Homes, 2012-16, (£ Million)
- Company Strategy
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Minster Care Group
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- Figure 92: Financial Analysis of Minster Care Group, 2012-16, (£ 000)
- Company Strategy
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Priory Group
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- Figure 93: Financial Analysis of the Priory Group, 2011-2015, (£ Million)
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- Figure 94: Financial Analysis of the Priory Education Services, 2011-2015, (£ 000)
- Group Strategy
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Sanctuary Care
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- Figure 95: Financial Analysis of Sanctuary Care, 2012-16, (£ 000)
- Company Strategy
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- Figure 96: Profiled Companies’ Turnover, 2012-2016, (£ Million)
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Forecast
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- Key Points
- The Market
- Demographic trends suggest strong demand and higher number of fully dependent care users
- Further increase in council tax to supplement social care funding is still unlikely to bridge the funding gap
- Market Forecast
- Market Value
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- Figure 97: Forecast Segmentation of the UK Residential and Nursing Care Market, by Type of Purchaser, 2018-22 (£ Million)
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- Figure 98: Forecast Segmentation of the UK Residential and Nursing Care Market, by Type of Purchaser, 2018-22, (£ Million)
- Number of Registered Places
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- Figure 99: Forecast UK Residential and Nursing Care, by Number of Registered Places, 2018-22 (000 places)
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- Figure 100: Forecast UK Residential and Nursing Care, by Number of Places, 2018-22, (000 Places)
- Number of Care Homes
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- Figure 101: Forecast UK Residential and Nursing Care, by Number of Homes, 2018-22 (Number of Homes)
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- Figure 102: Forecast UK Residential and Nursing Care, by Number of Homes, 2018-22, (Number of Homes)
- Sheltered Housing
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- Figure 103: Forecast UK Sheltered Housing Units, 2018-22, (000)
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- Figure 104: Forecast UK Sheltered Housing Units, 2018-22, (000)
- Future developments
- Shortage in care home workers needs to be remedied before the impact becomes ingrained
- A rise in suitable retirement housing could save the industry up to £2.6 billion a year
- Increasing the presence of technology in care homes could improve operator efficiency, occupancy levels and profit margins
- Improving personalisation in care homes could attract those wanting to live ‘independently’ for as long as possible
Further Sources & Contacts
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- Trade Associations & Organisations
- Trade Magazines
- Trade Exhibitions
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