Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales decline in 2017 as the market continues to face challenges
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan forecast of fragrance market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Declines steepest in women’s fragrance segment
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- Figure 2: Usage of personal body care products with or instead of fragrances, by men and women aged 18-34, May 2017
- Penetration is high, but usage is irregular
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- Figure 3: Regular and any usage of fragrances, May 2017
- The opportunities
- Young adults show high engagement in the segment
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- Figure 4: Regular and any usage of any fragrance (net), by age, May 2017
- Interest in added benefits could encourage more regular usage
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- Figure 5: Interest in fragrances with added benefits, by men and women aged 18-34, May 2017
- Innovations excite younger users
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- Figure 6: Interest in product innovations, by men and women aged 18-34, May 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales decline in 2017, with market slated to shrink through 2022
- Smaller men’s fragrance segment outperforms women’s
- The majority of fragrance sales are through “other” retail channels
- Scented personal care products compete with fragrances
- Engagement among younger adults key to growth
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales decline in 2017 as market continues to face challenges
- Market is projected to see declines through 2022
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan forecast of fragrance market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of fragrance market, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Decline in sales steeper in women’s fragrance segment than in men’s
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- Figure 9: Share of fragrance market sales, by segment, 2017
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- The majority of fragrance sales are through “other” retail channels
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of fragrances, by segment, at channel, 2015 and 2017
Market Perspective
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- Scented personal care products compete with fragrances
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- Figure 13: Regular and any usage of scented personal care products, May 2017
- Scented body care is especially appealing to key fragrance consumers
Market Factors
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- Engagement among younger adults key to growth
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- Figure 14: US population 18+, by age, 2012-22
- Younger consumers are more diverse, multicultural
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- Figure 15: Hispanic share of population, by generation, 2017
- Figure 16: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- In crowded landscape, a range of diverse players
- Fragrances compete with original scents, unique inspirations, unexpected packaging
- Natural ingredients, eco-friendly packages appeal to core users
- Celebrity-endorsed and traditional floral fragrances struggle
- Looking forward, customization, online retailing, and technology
Brand Overview and Usage
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- Coty and Elizabeth Arden have strong presence within beauty market
- L’Oréal and Estée Lauder hold broad portfolios
- Parlux Fragrances is a leading supplier of celebrity fragrances
- Unilever’s Axe and P&G Old Spice lead mass brands for men
- L Brands offers exclusive brands through specialty stores
- Specialty store perfume brands are most widely purchased
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- Figure 17: Usage of perfume in the past 12 months - format and brand, by gender, Winter 2017
- Mass brands Old Spice and Axe top aftershave/cologne brands
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- Figure 18: Usage of cologne/aftershave in the past 12 months – format and brand, by gender, Winter 2017
What’s Working?
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- Designer scents leverage connections with luxury
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- Figure 19: Mr. Burberry ad, April 2016
- Differentiation via scent inspirations and standout packaging
- Original fragrance inspirations connect to art, culture, nature, and science
- Gourmet inspired scents drive innovation
- Original and surprising packaging
- Unique formats spark interest
- Natural, skin-safe, and eco-friendly brands evoke simplicity
- Unisex products and gender ambiguity are trending
What’s Struggling?
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- Traditional women’s fragrances are struggling to reach younger shoppers
- Negative perceptions lead to struggle of celebrity fragrances
What’s Next?
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- Customization moves into the mainstream
- Technology enhances the shopping process
- Primers to extend scent
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Penetration is high, but regularity of usage weakens the market
- Fragrance retail landscape is fragmented, age and gender shape choice
- Interest in added benefits is solid, could shape innovation
- Specialty, designer, and celebrity brands have distinct associations
- Mood, season, and time of day shape usage, especially for younger women
- Concerns relate to safety, choice, and challenges of testing fragrances
- Moderate interest in natural formulations and customized products
Fragrance Usage
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- High overall penetration, even as inconsistent usage undercuts sales
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- Figure 20: Any use (net) and regular use (net) of fragrances, May 2017
- Higher-income adults are least likely to use fragrance
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- Figure 21: Regular use (net) of fragrances and any scented personal care, by household income, May 2017
- Younger men are most likely to use fragrance regularly
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- Figure 22: Regular use (net) of any fragrance and any scented personal care product, by age and gender, May 2017
- Younger men show strong usage of travel and alterative sizes
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- Figure 23: Regular use (net) of fragrances, by age and gender, May 2017
- Multicultural adults stand out for high usage of fragrances
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- Figure 24: Regular usage (net) of fragrances, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
Retailers Shopped
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- Fragrance retail market is highly fragmented
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- Figure 25: Retailers shopped, May 2017
- Affluent favor department stores, less affluent shop mass merchandisers
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- Figure 26: Retailers shopped, by household income, May 2017
- Men favor mass merchandisers, women specialty retailers
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- Figure 27: Retailers shopped, by age and gender, May 2017
Interest in Added Benefits
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- Moderate interest in added benefits
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- Figure 28: Interest in fragrances with added benefits, May 2017
- Moisturizing and deodorizing claims yield maximum reach
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- Figure 29: TURF analysis – Interest in fragrances with added benefits, May 2017
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- Figure 30: Table – TURF analysis – Interest in fragrances with added benefits, May 2017
- Methodology
- Younger consumers show high interest in added benefits
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- Figure 31: Interest in fragrances with added benefits, by age and gender, May 2017
- Interest in added benefits higher for Hispanics
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- Figure 32: Interest in fragrances with added benefits, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
Brand Perceptions
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- Different types of brands hold distinct associations for consumers
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- Figure 33: Correspondence analysis – Brand perceptions, May 2017
- Correspondence analysis methodology
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- Figure 34: Brand perceptions, May 2017
- Younger adults report stronger perceptions toward range of brands
- Young adults hold polarized views of celebrity fragrances
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- Figure 35: Perceptions of celebrity branded fragrances, by age and gender, May 2017
- Women aged 18-34 view specialty beauty brands as high value fun
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- Figure 36: Perceptions of speciality beauty brand fragrances, by age and gender, May 2017
- Men aged 18-34 see designer fragrances as high quality and high value
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- Figure 37: Perceptions of designer brand fragrances, by age and gender, May 2017
Attitudes toward Fragrance Usage
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- Season and time of day can shape fragrance choice and usage
- Mood and feelings are also integral to product choice
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- Figure 38: Attitudes toward fragrance usage, May 2017
- Women are most likely to vary fragrance usage
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- Figure 39: Attitudes toward usage of fragrances, by age and gender, May 2017
- Black and Hispanic consumers more likely to vary usage
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- Figure 40: Select attitudes toward fragrance usage, by race/Hispanic origin, may 2017
Attitudes toward Safety and Efficacy
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- Challenges and concerns relate to scent testing, duration, and safety
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- Figure 41: Attitudes toward safety and efficacy, May 2017
- Gender and age shape attitudes in selecting and testing fragrances
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward safety and efficacy, by age and gender, May 2017
Product Innovations
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- Interest in innovations is moderate
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- Figure 43: Interest in product innovations, may 2017
- Young women want natural, organic, and skin-safe fragrances…
- …but are enthusiastic about a range of innovations
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- Figure 44: Interest in select innovations, by age and gender, may 2017
- Blacks and Hispanics over index for a wide range of innovations
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- Figure 45: Interest in select product innovations, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 46: Total US sales and forecast of fragrance market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of fragrances by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 48: MULO sales of fragrances, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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