Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Alcohol sales experience continued growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
- The issues
- A third of consumers are at home relaxers
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- Figure 2: On-premise alcohol attitudes, June 2017
- On-premise beer consumption drops
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- Figure 3: Total on-premise market volume consumption per capita, beer, 2011-20
- Regular wine drinkers are brand agnostic
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- Figure 4: Drink brand loyalty: beer and wine, among drink type drinkers, any brand loyalty, June 2017
- The opportunities
- Mood dictates what drinks consumers order
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- Figure 5: Drinking behaviors, by gender and age, June 2017
- An occasion for every drink…
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- Figure 6: Correspondence analysis – Drinking occasions, June 2017
- And a drink for every venue
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- Figure 7: Venue appeal, by wine type drinkers, indexed against all AFH drinkers, June 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Falling volume offset by premium drinks
- Interest in traveling benefits the alcohol industry
- Rising median age could impact the market
Market Size and Forecast
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- On-premise sales pass the $100 billion mark
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Consumers are ordering fewer but more expensive drinks
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- Figure 10: Total on-premise market volume consumption per capita, beer, 2011-20
- Figure 11: Total on-premise market volume consumption per capita, spirits and wine/sparkling wine, 2011-20
- Light beer is quickly losing market share
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- Figure 12: Share of total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
- Table wine represents 90% of all wine sold
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- Figure 13: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
- Irish and other imported whiskey experience strong growth
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- Figure 14: US volume sales of whiskey, 2011-16
- Rum and gin lose white spirit market share
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- Figure 15: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, volume share, by segment, 2011-21
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- Figure 16: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2011-21
Market Perspective
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- Wine brands embrace the versatility of sparkling wine
- Brands spike one of the fastest growing non-alcoholic beverages
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- Figure 17: Alcoholic beverages purchase intent score, July 2016-July 2017
- Alcohol mixers allow for cocktails at home
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic beverage mixers, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Factors
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- The median age climbs up
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- Figure 19: Median age of total US population, 1995-2016
- Ride sharing an unintended boon for bars
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- Figure 20: Lyft email, “Ride safe this Memorial Day with Budweiser and RESQWATER Proactive Recovery”
- Pack your bags, Americans are going on vacation
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- Figure 21: Expenditures on US tourism-related goods and services, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Latin flavors and boozy brunches provide opportunity for bars
- Non-alcoholic drinks become a stand-in for the real thing
- Growing interest in travel leads to better hotel bars
What’s Working?
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- Bars look south of the border for inspiration
- Spiked shakes tap into fun/nostalgia
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- Figure 22: Alcoholic milkshakes from Public House in Chicago
- Sparkling wine and wine cocktails expand the occasions for wine
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- Figure 23: Sangria LTOs and new menu items at casual dining chains
- Millennials associate brunch with alcohol
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- Figure 24: Brunch option interest, by generation, May 2017
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- Figure 25: Breakfast/brunch cocktail examples
- Floral cocktails spring up on menus
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- Figure 26: Floral-flavored cocktails on menus
What’s Struggling?
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- A sobering future?
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- Figure 27: Mocktail examples
- Restaurants are removing big beer brands from menus
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- Figure 28: Change in incidence of top 20 beer brands on menus, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- On-premise wine needs to connect with younger consumers
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- Figure 29: Median age of on-premise wine vs Champagne/sparkling wine drinkers
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- Figure 30: Wine behavior by age, August 2016
- Gin lacks brand loyalists
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- Figure 31: US volume sales and forecast of gin, 2011-21
What’s Next?
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- Don’t be afraid of fat
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- Figure 32: Fat used in cocktails
- The slushy reinvented
- Hotels leverage local alcohol offerings
- Bars/restaurants focus on the entire experience
- Retailers blur on and off premise
Mintel Menu Insights Analysis
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- Pale ales and “cloudy” beers trend while light beer goes flat
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- Figure 33: Change in incidence of top 20 beer types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Beer gets fruitful
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- Figure 34: Fastest growing fruit beer flavors, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Wines experience strong menu growth
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- Figure 35: Change in incidence of top 10 wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Red wines
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- Figure 36: Change in incidence of top 10 red wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- White wines
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- Figure 37: Change in incidence of top 10 white wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Sparkling wines
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- Figure 38: Change in incidence of top Champagne/sparkling wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Craft cocktails continue to dominate the industry
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- Figure 39: Change in incidence of top 15 cocktails, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Sour cocktails give way to flower and ginger flavors
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- Figure 40: Change in the incidence of the top 20 ingredient flavors used in cocktails, Q2 2017-Q2 2017
- Figure 41: Change in the incidence of top 10 fruit ingredient flavors used in cocktails, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Whiskey cocktails grow in popularity driven by bourbon
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- Figure 42: Change in incidence of spirits as an ingredient in a menued cocktail, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Figure 43: Change in incidence of whiskey as an ingredient in a menued cocktail, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
- Fruit-flavored liqueurs decline
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- Figure 44: Change in incidence of liqueurs as an ingredient in a menued cocktail, top 20 liqueurs, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Drinkers have venue preferences
- NCD and imported beer have brand loyalists
- Mood and occasions determine what drinks consumers order
Alcohol Consumed on Premise
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- Beer is the most consumed alcoholic beverage on premise
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- Figure 45: Alcohol consumed on premise, June 2017
- Millennials are the primary consumers of all drinks
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- Figure 46: Alcohol consumed on premise, by generation, June 2017
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- Figure 47: Alcohol consumed on premise, by Millennial age, June 2017
- Women and men have very different drinking preferences
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- Figure 48: Alcohol consumed on premise, by gender and age, June 2017
- Opportunity for craft beer brands to connect with Hispanics
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- Figure 49: Alcohol consumed on premise, by Hispanic origin, June 2017
- Black consumers are infrequent AFH drinkers
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- Figure 50: Alcohol consumed on premise, by race, June 2017
- Cool cocktails appeal to social media users
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- Figure 51: Alcohol consumed on premise, by alcohol attitudes, June 2017
- Non-switchers are loyal to non-craft domestic beer
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- Figure 52: Alcohol consumed on premise, by switching segmentation, June 2017
Venue Appeal
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- Consumers are most interested in restaurant bars
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- Figure 53: Venue appeal, June 2017
- Millennials find a variety of venues appealing
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- Figure 54: Venue appeal, by generation, June 2017
- More experiential venues may appeal to women
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- Figure 55: Venue appeal, by gender, June 2017
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- Figure 56: Venue appeal, by gender and age, June 2017
- Nightclubs popular among Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 57: Venue appeal, by race/ethnicity, June 2017
- Venue preferences vary by drinker types
- Craft beer drinkers prefer less-noisy establishments
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- Figure 58: Venue appeal, indexed against all AFH drinkers, by beer type drinkers, June 2017
- Venues can capitalize on the popularity of sparkling wine
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- Figure 59: Venue appeal, by wine type drinkers, June 2017
- Large cross-over for craft drinkers
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- Figure 60: Venue appeal, by select spirit type drinkers, June 2017
- Energy seekers are club-goers
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- Figure 61: Venue appeal, by alcohol attitudes, June 2017
- Drink switchers are also open minded when it comes to venues
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- Figure 62: Venue appeal, by switching segmentation, June 2017
Drink Brand Loyalty: Beer and Wine
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- Consumers are loyal to non-craft and imported beer brands
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- Figure 63: Drink brand loyalty: Beer and wine, among drink type drinkers, June 2017
- Older consumers have their beer preferences
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- Figure 64: Drink brand loyalty: Beer and wine, among drink type drinkers by age, “any loyalty,” June 2017
Drink Brand Loyalty: Spirits
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- Whiskey drinkers are the most brand loyal
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- Figure 65: Drink brand loyalty: Spirits, rebased among drinkers, June 2017
Drinking Behaviors
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- Drink choice is highly mood dependent
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- Figure 66: Drinking behaviors, June 2017
- Many consumers don’t switch drinks
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- Figure 67: Switching behaviors, June 2017
- Women may respond to occasion-based promotions
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- Figure 68: Drinking behaviors, by gender, June 2017
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- Figure 69: Drinking behaviors, by gender and age, June 2017
- Millennials are experimental drinkers
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- Figure 70: Drinking behaviors, by generation, June 2017
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- Figure 71: Switching behaviors, by generation, June 2017
- NCD beer drinkers are most likely to be non-switchers
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- Figure 72: Switching behaviors, by beer type drinkers, June 2017
Drinking Occasions by Drink Type
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- Methodology
- Consumers chose drinks for specific occasions
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- Figure 73: Correspondence analysis – Drinking occasions, June 2017
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- Figure 74: Drinking occasions by drink type, June 2017
- Beverage drinking occasions vary by demographics
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- Figure 75: Drinking occasions – Any beer, by age, June 2017
Drinking Occasions: Any Drink Type
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- Drinking tends to center around meals and celebrations
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- Figure 76: Drinking occasions, any drink, June 2017
- Millennials are more likely to drink across occasions
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- Figure 77: Drinking occasions, any drink, by generation, June 2017
- At home relaxers will indulge on certain occasions
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- Figure 78: Drinking occasions, any drink, by alcohol attitudes, June 2017
On-premise Alcohol Attitudes
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- A third of consumers prefer a relaxing drink at home
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- Figure 79: On-premise alcohol attitudes, June 2017
- Younger women utilize ride sharing services
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- Figure 80: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by gender and age, June 2017
- Boomers prefer to drink at home
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- Figure 81: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by generation, June 2017
- Those in cities are most motivated by social media
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- Figure 82: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by area, June 2017
- Switchers experiment on premise
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- Figure 83: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by switcher segmentation, June 2017
- Craft cocktail drinkers enjoy experimenting
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- Figure 84: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by drink type drinkers, June 2017
Behavioral/Attitudinal Drinker Demographic Profiles
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- Demographic profile: Switching behaviors
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- Figure 85: Switcher segmentation profile, index against all AFH drinkers
- Demographic profile: Energy seekers, connected social media users, and at home relaxers
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- Figure 86: Alcohol attitudes profile, index against all AFH drinkers,
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumption data: Mintel Market Sizes
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 87: Median HH income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2015
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Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 88: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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