Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- Short breaks abroad up 41% in three years but pace likely to slow
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- Figure 1: Domestic short break market volume forecast, 2012-22
- Figure 2: Overseas short break market volume forecast, 2012-22
- Breaks to Spain, Netherlands and Eastern Europe have risen
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- Figure 3: Top 10 countries for short breaks (1-3 nights) abroad, by volume, 2016
- Beach/culture breaks offer value for money
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- Figure 4: Top 10 lowest city break costs* 2017
- Luxury, rural and Northern Lights breaks have biggest potential
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- Figure 5: Types of short break taken in the past 12 months and future interest, May 2017
- OTAs take half of overseas bookings
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- Figure 6: How last short break was booked, May 2017
- History/culture, hidden places and lure of the live
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- Figure 7: Activities people are interested in doing on city breaks, May 2017
- Gateway to the new
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- Figure 8: Agreement with further attitudinal statements towards short and city breaks, May 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Targeting spontaneous bookers
- The facts
- The implications
- Niche package opportunities
- The facts
- The implications
- Greener city breaks for older travellers
- The facts
- The implications
- Cutbacks, budget breaks and spirit of lagom
- The facts
- The implications
- Rural retreats
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Domestic breaks flat/overseas breaks surge in 2016
- New era of uncertainty ahead
- London could suffer similar impact to Paris
- Breaks to Eastern Europe up 30% in 2016
- Consumers continue to benefit from low fares …
- …but city break costs are up 28% this year
Market Size and Forecast
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- Overall short break numbers up 2% in 2016
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- Figure 9: Total short breaks (1-3 nights) taken by UK residents, by volume and value*, 2012-22
- Figure 10: Total short break market volume forecast, 2012-22
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- Figure 11: Total short break market value* forecast, 2012-22
- Domestic short breaks remain flat …
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- Figure 12: Domestic short breaks (1-3 nights) taken by UK residents, by volume and value, 2012-22
- Figure 13: Domestic short break market volume forecast, 2012-22
- Figure 14: Domestic short break market value* forecast, 2012-22
- …but short breaks abroad continue to surge
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- Figure 15: Overseas short breaks (1-3 nights) taken by UK residents, by volume and value, 2012-22
- Figure 16: Overseas short break market volume forecast, 2012-22
- Figure 17: Overseas short break market value* forecast, 2012-22
- Slowdown expected as economic picture worsens
Segment Performance
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- South West/North West are leading UK regions
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- Figure 18: Estimated number of domestic (1-3 night) short breaks, by region, 2016
- Trips to France have declined as Spain and Netherlands catch up
- Eastern Europe also a growth area
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- Figure 19: Top 10 countries for short breaks (1-3 nights) abroad, by volume, 2014-16
- Flights take off but trips through Tunnel derailed
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- Figure 20: Number of short breaks (1-3 nights) abroad, by mode of travel, 2012-16
- Package share has declined
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- Figure 21: Number of short breaks (1-3 nights) abroad, independent versus package, 2012-16
- Year-round strength of short break market
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- Figure 22: Percentage split by quarter of short breaks (1-3 nights) versus all holidays abroad, 2016
- Figure 23: Estimated percentage split by quarter of short breaks (1-3 nights) versus all domestic holidays, 2016
- Short breakers are high spenders
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- Figure 24: Estimated spend per night of short breaks (1-3 nights) versus all holidays, 2016
Market Background
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- Wages squeezed in gig economy
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- Figure 25: UK average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses)* vs CPI inflation, percentage change year on year, January 2014-May 2017
- Pound suffers double-digit drop since Referendum
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- Figure 26: Spot exchange rate, Pound Sterling versus selected currencies, June 2016-June 2017
- Low oil price remains a helpful factor for travel …
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- Figure 27: European Brent crude prices, January 2014-May 2017
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- Figure 28: Petrol costs (unleaded 95 octane), January 2014-May 2017
- …but other city break costs have risen steeply
- Sunshine and sightseeing breaks offer relatively good value
- Eastern Europe still the cheapest
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- Figure 29: City break costs* 2017 versus 2016
Launch Activity – What You Need to Know
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- Tour operators challenging OTAs
- New active short breaks
- Special occasion families
- Going underground and off-piste in the city
- Online giants developing city break apps
Launch Activity and New Product Development
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- New packaged product challenges OTAs
- Active UK mini-breaks
- Multi-generational family breaks
- Local experiences in the city
- Battle of the city break apps
- All you can fly
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Coast and city equally popular
- Escape to the country
- Seeing the light
- Millennials and well-off seniors are key groups
- One in four breaks booked last minute
- Hidden city
- Keeping it real
- Uncertainties likely to affect market
- Short breaks are associated with novelty
- Shorter and sweeter
Participation and Interest
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- Six in ten adults take short breaks
- Londoners go for luxury
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- Figure 30: Types of short break taken in the past 12 months and future interest, May 2017
- Luxury, rural and Northern Lights breaks show largest growth potential
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- Figure 31: Percentage-point difference between types of short break taken in the past 12 months and future interest, May 2017
- Serial Short Breakers
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- Figure 32: Number of short breaks taken in the past 12 months, May 2017
- Millennials are the leading overseas short breakers
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- Figure 33: Destination of last short break, May 2017
Booking Short and City Breaks
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- Spirit of spontaneity
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- Figure 34: When last short break was booked, May 2017
- Half of short breaks abroad booked via OTAs
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- Figure 35: How last short break was booked, May 2017
Preferred Activities on City Breaks
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- City breakers seek history, culture and hidden places
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- Figure 36: Activities people are interested in doing on city breaks, May 2017
- Greening the city
- Live action
- Career-change breaks
- Urban treasure hunts
Short and City Breaks Attitudes
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- Cost of living crisis could deter half of short breakers
- Security worries are a growing influence
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- Figure 37: Agreement with attitudinal statements towards short and city breaks, May 2017
- Those who take just one or two breaks are most likely to cut back
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- Figure 38: Agreement with attitudinalstatements towards short and city breaks, by numbers of breaks taken in past 12 months, May 2017
- Short breaks offer opportunity for diversification
- New little and often tribe is emerging
- Helping people to switch off
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- Figure 39: Agreement with further attitudinal statements towards short and city breaks, May 2017
CHAID Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 40: Target groups based on attitudes towards short breaks – CHAID – Tree output, May 2017
- Young family consumers are the most likely to cut back
Appendix
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- Definitions
- Abbreviations
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