Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Issues covered in this Report
- Definitions
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecast and projected, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-21
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: Indexed value of mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecast and projected, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-21
- Market factors
- Positive outlook for both Irish economies
- House prices in NI and RoI increasing, but still below boom levels
- Rents at all-time high in RoI, and rising fast in NI
- Mortgage rates low in NI, but comparatively high in RoI
- The consumer
- Mortgages owned currently by around one in three consumers
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- Figure 3: If consumers/consumers and their partner currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Fixed rates most popular in NI, variable rates in RoI
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- Figure 4: Type of mortgage that consumers currently have on their main home, RoI and NI, January 2017
- Around four in five consumers do not intend to apply for a mortgage
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- Figure 5: If consumers are considering applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Most consumers solicited professional advice on taking out mortgage
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- Figure 6: Sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Consumers see brokers offering convenience, but want personal touch
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- Figure 7: Agreement with statements relating to professional mortgage advice and sources of mortgage advice, NI and RoI, January 2017
- What it means
The Market - What You Need to Know
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- Positive outlook for both Irish economies
- House prices in NI and RoI increasing, but still below boom levels
- Rents at all-time high in RoI, and rising fast in NI
- Mortgage rates low in NI, but comparatively high in RoI
Market Size and Forecast
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- Value of outstanding mortgage debt fell below €100 billion in 2016
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- Figure 8: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecast and projected, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-21
- Market not expected to return to growth until 2020
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- Figure 9: Indexed value of mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecast and projected, IoI, NI and RoI, 2012-21
- Increase in number of mortgages issued in NI in 2016
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- Figure 10: Total number of loans advanced for house purchase and re-mortgage, NI, 2010-16
- Volume of mortgages up 9% in RoI in 2016
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- Figure 11: Total number of mortgage drawdowns, RoI, 2006-16
- Figure 12: Volume mortgage drawdowns, % of total, by mortgage type, RoI, Q4 2016
- Value of mortgages issued in RoI up 17% in 2016
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- Figure 13: Total value of mortgage drawdowns, € million, RoI, 2006-16
- Figure 14: Value mortgage drawdowns, % of total, by mortgage type, RoI, Q4 2016
Market Drivers
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- Economic prospects still positive for Irish economies
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- Figure 15: Economic growth, forecast and projected, NI and UK, 2016-18
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- Figure 16: Key economic indicators, annual % change, RoI, 2016 and 2017
- More than a quarter rate own finances as being 'healthy'
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- Figure 17: How consumers rate their current financial situation, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Steady increase in proportion of RoI consumers rating own finances as 'healthy'
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- Figure 18: Consumers who rate their current financial situation as being 'healthy', NI and RoI, 2014- 17
- Moderate house price growth - but prices nowhere near boom levels
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- Figure 19: Residential property prices, annual % change, NI and RoI, index, NI, 2007-16
- Figure 20: Residential property price index, NI, 2007-16
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- Figure 21: Residential property price index, RoI, 2005-16
- Spiralling rents reaching all-time high in RoI
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- Figure 22: National Rent Index, RoI, 2006-17
- Renting more expensive than purchasing via mortgage loan
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- Figure 23: Average mortgage payment versus average rent payment, RoI, Q4 2016
- Property purchase becoming less affordable for RoI consumers
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- Figure 24: Affordability index for two-earner household with 30-year mortgage, RoI & Dublin, 2008-16
- Rents rising faster in NI than anywhere in UK
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- Figure 25: Average residential rent, % annual increase, UK (incl NI), January 2017
- Figure 26: Average residential rent, £ per month, UK (incl NI), January 2017
- Rent affordability remains higher in NI than in UK overall
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- Figure 27: Household rent to income ratio, %, UK (incl NI), January 2017
- Buying property less expensive than renting property for NI consumers
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- Figure 28: First-time buyer average monthly buying and rental costs, UK and NI, December 2016
- Mortgage rates in RoI declining, but still twice euro area average
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- Figure 29: Mortgage interest rates on principal dwellings, floating and fixed rates, RoI, 2014-16
- NI mortgage rates at all-time lows, but higher rates likely
What You Need to Know – Companies and Innovations
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- Political uncertainty could impact mortgage ‘rates war’
- Unemployment rate in NI and RoI
- Property prices in NI rise but sales reduce
- Repossessions across IoI remain a threat to occupants and an inhibitor for those trying to get on the property ladder
Who’s Innovating?
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- Digital innovations continue to change mortgage industry
- Nationwide launches the Flexible Family Deposit Mortgage to help first-time buyers
- Pepper innovates and increases presence across RoI and UK
Companies and Brands
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- Allied Irish Bank
- Key facts
- AIB mortgage products
- First Trust mortgage products
- Recent developments
- Bank of Ireland
- Key facts
- Mortgage products – Bank of Ireland NI
- Mortgage products – RoI
- Recent developments
- Danske Bank
- Key facts
- Mortgage products
- Recent developments
- Halifax
- Key facts
- Mortgage products
- Recent developments
- HSBC
- Key facts
- Mortgage products
- Recent developments
- KBC Ireland
- Key facts
- Mortgage products
- Recent developments
- Nationwide
- Key facts
- Mortgage products
- Recent developments
- Permanent TSB
- Key facts
- Mortgage products
- Recent developments
- Santander
- Key facts
- Mortgage products
- Recent developments
- Ulster Bank
- Key facts
- NI mortgage products
- RoI mortgage products
- Recent developments
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Mortgages owned currently by around one in three consumers
- Fixed rates most popular in NI, variable rates in RoI
- Around four in five consumers do not intend to apply for a mortgage
- Most consumers solicited professional advice on taking out mortgage
- Consumers see brokers offering convenience, but want personal touch
The Consumer - Ownership of Mortgages
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- Around a third of consumers currently have mortgage on home
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- Figure 30: If consumers/consumers and their partner currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Single consumers significantly less likely to have a mortgage
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- Figure 31: Consumers who currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by marital status, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Mortgage ownership peaks among 35-54-year-olds
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- Figure 32: Consumers who currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by age, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Employment a major factor in mortgage ownership
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- Figure 33: Consumers who currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by work status, NI and RoI, January 2017
- ABC1s far more likely than C2DEFs to have a mortgage
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- Figure 34: Consumers who currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by social class, NI and RoI, January 2017
The Consumer - Type of Mortgage Owned
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- NI preference for fixed rates, while variable rates prevail in RoI
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- Figure 35: type of mortgage that consumers currently have on their main home, RoI and NI, January 2017
- Just over a third of Irish consumers on interest-only mortgage terms
- Sizeable minority do not know what sort of mortgage they have
The Consumer - Future Intentions
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- Most Irish consumers do not intend to apply for a mortgage
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- Figure 36: If consumers are considering applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Rejection of notion of mortgage application growing in NI
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- Figure 37: Consumers who say they will not be applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, NI and RoI, December 2014-January 2017
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- Figure 38: If consumers are considering applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, by mortgage type, NI and RoI, December 2014-January 2017
- Consumers aged 55+ least likely to apply for a mortgage
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- Figure 39: Consumers who say they will not be applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, by gender and age, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Full-time employees least inclined to reject idea of mortgage application
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- Figure 40: Consumers who say they will not be applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, by work status, NI and RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 41: Consumers who say they will not be applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, by social class, NI and RoI, December 2014-January 2017
- Majority NI buyers either using or intend using Help to Buy ISA Scheme
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- Figure 42: If consumers are currently using, or planning to use a help to buy ISA scheme for an upcoming mortgage, NI, January 2017
The Consumer - Sources of Advice
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- Majority of consumers sought professional advice on mortgage
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- Figure 43: Sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Preference for direct advice over independent broker
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- Figure 44: Selected sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Significant minority rely on incomplete advice or unqualified sources
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- Figure 45: Selected sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, NI and RoI, January 2017
The Consumer - Attitudes towards Professional Advice and Sources of Advice
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- Mixed views and opinions about mortgage advice and advisers
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- Figure 46: Agreement with statements relating to professional mortgage advice and sources of mortgage advice, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Mortgage advisers believed to offer convenience and better deals
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- Figure 47: Agreement with selected statements relating to professional mortgage advice and sources of mortgage advice, NI and RoI, January 2017
- Personal recommendations, direct contact key when choosing adviser
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- Figure 48: Agreement with selected statements relating to professional mortgage advice and sources of mortgage advice, NI and RoI, January 2017
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Definition
- Data sources
- Abbreviations
Appendix - The Consumer
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- NI Toluna data
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- Figure 49: If consumers/consumers and their partner currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 50: Type of mortgage that consumers currently have on their main home, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 51: If consumers are considering applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 52: If consumers are currently using, or planning to use a help to buy ISA scheme for an upcoming mortgage, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 53: Sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 54: Sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, by demographics, NI, January 2017 (continued)
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- Figure 55: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m confident that I could get the best mortgage deal without professional advice’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 56: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be happy to get advice from a mortgage adviser via digital channels (eg via Skype, smartphone app, online chat)’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 57: Agreement with the statement ‘I think mortgage advisers provide good value for money’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 58: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be more concerned about my application being rejected if I applied for a mortgage without using an adviser’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 59: Agreement with the statement ‘I would only ever pay for advice if I could meet the adviser in person’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 60: Agreement with the statement ‘I think professional mortgage advice is better than information you can get for free’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ‘I believe mortgage advisers have access to better deals than people arranging their mortgage independently’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘I think it’s more convenient to arrange a mortgage/re-mortgage through a mortgage adviser’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 63: Agreement with the statement ‘I think it is worth paying more for an impartial mortgage adviser’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 64: Agreement with the statement ‘I am more likely to use a mortgage adviser that has been recommended by a friend/family member’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 65: Agreement with the statement ‘I am more likely to use a mortgage adviser due to the uncertainty around Brexit’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
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- Figure 66: Agreement with the statement ‘I would ask my adviser for advice on co-ownership’, by demographics, NI, January 2017
- RoI Toluna data
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- Figure 67: If consumers/consumers and their partner currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 68: Type of mortgage that consumers currently have on their main home, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 69: If consumers are considering applying for a mortgage within the next 12 months, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 70: Sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 71: Sources of advice that consumers used when consumers arranged their last mortgage/re-mortgage, by demographics, RoI, January 2017 (continued)
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- Figure 72: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m confident that I could get the best mortgage deal without professional advice’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 73: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be happy to get advice from a mortgage adviser via digital channels (eg via Skype, smartphone app, online chat)’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 74: Agreement with the statement ‘I think mortgage advisers provide good value for money’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 75: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be more concerned about my application being rejected if I applied for a mortgage without using an adviser’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 76: Agreement with the statement ‘I would only ever pay for advice if I could meet the adviser in person, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 77: Agreement with the statement ‘I think professional mortgage advice is better than information you can get for free’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 78: Agreement with the statement ‘I believe mortgage advisers have access to better deals than people arranging their mortgage independently’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 79: Agreement with the statement ‘I think it’s more convenient to arrange a mortgage/re-mortgage through a mortgage adviser’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 80: Agreement with the statement ‘I think it is worth paying more for an impartial mortgage adviser’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 81: Agreement with the statement ‘I am more likely to use a mortgage adviser that has been recommended by a friend/family member’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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- Figure 82: Agreement with the statement ‘I am more likely to use a mortgage adviser due to the uncertainty around Brexit’, by demographics, RoI, January 2017
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