Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Scope of the Report
Executive Summary
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- Slow and steady growth forecast despite economic uncertainty
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- Figure 1: Forecast of total holiday market volume, 2011-21
- Domestic trips reduce in Q1 2016 after a strong 2015
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- Figure 2: Forecast of domestic holiday market volume, 2011-21
- Overseas volume approaching pre-recession levels
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- Figure 3: Forecast of overseas holiday market volume, 2011-21
- The consumer
- Proportion of consumers taking holidays drops slightly
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- Figure 4: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months (combined), November 2015 and November 2016
- Millennials the driving force behind the rise of city breaks
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- Figure 5: Type of holiday taken in the last 12 months, November 2016
- Generally positive outlook despite doom and gloom surrounding Brexit
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- Figure 6: Future holiday plans, November 2015 vs November 2016
- Consumers will adopt even savvier shopping habits
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- Figure 7: Holiday attitudes following Brexit, November 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Potential for an increase in rural holidays
- The facts
- The implications
- A relatively positive outlook for 2017
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Slow and steady growth predicted despite economic uncertainty
- A slight decline in domestic trips in 2016
- Overseas volume approaching pre-recession levels
- Top holiday destinations for UK travellers
- Pound remains low making overseas trips more expensive
Market Size and Forecast
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- Slow and steady growth forecast despite the Brexit vote
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- Figure 8: Estimated total holiday market volume and value, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Forecast of total holiday market volume, 2011-21
- Figure 10: Forecast of total holiday market value*, 2011-21
- Domestic trips reduce in Q1 2016 after a strong 2015
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- Figure 11: Estimated domestic holiday market volume and value*, 2011-21
- Figure 12: Forecast of domestic holiday market volume, 2011-21
- Figure 13: Forecast of domestic holiday market value*, 2011-21
- Overseas volume approaching pre-recession levels
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- Figure 14: Overseas holiday market volume and value*, 2011-21
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- Figure 15: Forecast of overseas holiday market volume, 2011-21
- Figure 16: Forecast overseas holiday market value, 2011-21
Market Segmentation
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- Inbound trip volume increases by 2.1% in 2015
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- Figure 17: Inbound holiday volume from overseas residents to the UK, 2011-15
- Figure 18: Top 10 nations with the most holiday visits to the UK, 2015
- The UK becoming more attractive due to the fall in value of the Pound
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- Figure 19: Inbound holiday volume from overseas residents to the UK, 2015 H1 vs 2016 H1
- Will packages become more popular following the Brexit vote?
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- Figure 20: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays, 2010-16
- Short-haul trips make up 82% of the market
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- Figure 21: Long-haul vs short-haul holidays, by volume, 2010-16
- Top holiday destinations for UK travellers
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- Figure 22: Top 20 holiday destinations for UK residents, 2011-15
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- Figure 23: Top 20 holiday destinations for UK residents, H1 2015-16
- Domestic spend/visits versus overseas spend/visits
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- Figure 24: Short vs long holidays in Great Britain, by volume, 2011-15
- Figure 25: Short vs long holidays in Great Britain, by value, 2011-15
- Revival of seaside and countryside in 2015
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- Figure 26: Holiday volumes in Great Britain, by type of destination*, 2011-15
- Figure 27: Domestic holiday volumes in Great Britain, by region visited, 2011-15
- Beyond London
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- Figure 28: Most visited English cities and towns – 2013-15 three-year average for holiday trips by UK residents
Market Drivers
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- APD cuts long-haul market
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- Figure 29: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates, April 2012-April 2017
- Pound remains low making overseas trips more expensive
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- Figure 30: Spot exchange rate, Pound Sterling vs US Dollar and euro, 1 June 2016-19 January 2017
- Low oil prices allowing airlines to keep fares low
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- Figure 31: Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel), January 2014-17
- Some long-haul tour operators are now charging more for trips
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Strong growth for airlines brands
- Lufthansa offers its premium economy sets via Airbnb
- Google launches Destinations for mobile
- Hopper predicts fares and notifies travellers of price drops
- Live chat with KLM Royal Dutch Airlines via Facebook Messenger
Market Share
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- Ryanair sees double-digit growth
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- Figure 32: Top 10 UK-based airlines, by passengers uplifted globally, 2010-15
- Leading brands’ increase in passengers licensed under ATOL protection
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- Figure 33: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top 10 ATOL holders, 2011-17
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Lufthansa offers its premium economy sets via Airbnb
- Google launches Destinations for mobile
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- Figure 34: Google Destinations, March 2016
- Hopper predicts fares and notifies travellers of price drops
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- Figure 35: Price-predicting smartphone app Hopper
- Live chat with KLM Royal Dutch Airlines via Facebook Messenger
- New start-up Overnight allows consumers to book spontaneously
- Etihad Airways releases new iPhone app
- Real-time onboard seat auctions in the pipeline
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Some consumers cutting back on holidays
- Millennials the driving force behind the rise of city breaks
- Big spenders in the 25-34 group
- Generally positive outlook despite doom and gloom surrounding Brexit
- Consumers will adopt even savvier shopping habits
Holiday Destinations Visited
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- Some consumers cutting back on holidays
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- Figure 36: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months (combined), November 2015 and November 2016
- Who cut back on holidays in 2016?
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- Figure 37: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months (combined), by age, November 2015 and November 2016
- Less affluent consumers taking fewer holidays
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- Figure 38: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months (combined), by socio-economic group, November 2015 and November 2016
- Younger years marks a time when consumers are serial destination hoppers
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- Figure 39: Repertoire of holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, by age, November 2016
Regional Differences in Holiday Taking
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- Londoners take the most holidays
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- Figure 40: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months (combined), by location, November 2016
Holiday Types Taken
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- Millennials the driving force behind the rise of city breaks
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- Figure 41: Type of holiday taken in the last 12 months, November 2016
- Technology-free family breaks could prove popular
- Winter beach breaks are most popular amongst 16-34s and over-65s
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- Figure 42: Types of beach holidays taken in the last 12 months, by age, November 2016
- 16-34s keen on a wide variety of holiday types
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- Figure 43: Repertoire of holiday types taken in the last 12 months, November 2016
- Figure 44: Repertoire of holiday types taken in the last 12 months, by age, November 2016
Holiday Spending
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- Mean and median holiday spending
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- Figure 45: Amount spent on most expensive holiday in the last 12 months, November 2016
- Affluent 25-34s spend large amounts on holidays
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- Figure 46: Amount spent on most expensive holiday in the last 12 months, by age, November 2016
- Experience and authenticity are important for big spenders
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- Figure 47: Amount spent on most expensive holiday in the last 12 months, by age, November 2016
- Luxury Big-Ticket Holiday Spenders are more cautious about Brexit
Holiday Finances
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- 25-34s most likely to incur some debt to go on holidays
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- Figure 48: Holiday payment behaviours, November 2016
- Younger consumers more likely to save up for holidays
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- Figure 49: Holiday payment behaviours, by age, November 2016
Future Holiday Plans
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- Generally positive outlook despite doom and gloom surrounding Brexit
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- Figure 50: Future holiday plans, November 2015 vs November 2016
- A proportion of 25-34s may focus on choosing long holidays over short breaks
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- Figure 51: Short break plans, by age, November 2015 vs November 2016
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- Figure 52: Long holiday plans, by age, November 2015 vs November 2016
Interest in Holiday Types
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- Potential for an increase in rural holidays?
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- Figure 53: Holiday types interested in taking over the next 12 months, November 2016
- East/West Mainlanders, older consumers and the financially burdened are the least likely to holiday
Holidays after the Brexit Vote
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- Relatively positive outlook following the leave vote
- Impact of the EU referendum vote
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- Figure 54: Detailed post-Brexit scenarios for the holiday market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Figure 55: Alternative market scenarios for the post-Brexit holiday market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Two thirds say they plan to take a holiday abroad in the next year
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- Figure 56: Plans to a holiday abroad, November 2016
- Consumers will adopt even savvier shopping habits
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- Figure 57: Holiday attitudes following Brexit, November 2016
CHAID Analysis – Holidays after the Brexit Vote
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- Methodology
- Parents are good targets for planning and budgeting services
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- Figure 58: Attitudes towards the effect of Brexit on future holidays – CHAID – Tree output, November 2016
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards the effect of Brexit on future holidays – CHAID – Table output, November 2016
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Definitions
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast Methodology
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- Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecast for total holiday volume, 2016-21
- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast for total holiday value, 2016-21
- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic volume, 2016-21
- Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic value, 2016-21
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- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas volume, 2016-21
- Figure 65: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas value, 2016-21
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